Betting: March 27th (LPL)

Anybody that followed me last year knows that I punted away a ton of money during the second half of the season in the summer in the LPL just lazily betting 2-0's. That isn't the case here. I had good reasoning and thought process for all four of my selections this week and I still think they were the right side it just didn't pan out for us in this situation. It's just something to be aware of.

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LPL Spring 2019 - W10D3:

I've had one hell of a week. We're down 17 units in the last two days but hey aggression gets punished sometimes and three out of four of those wagers I actually still feel fine about regardless of the outcome. Onward we march.

FunPlus have a chance to clinch not only an automatic bid to the semifinals with a win here but also a chance to secure side selection if they were to meet Invictus or TopSports in the finals by clinching the #1 seed with two wins this week. That's plenty of incentive but this line is just a bit too pricey for me to wager here. Vici have taken games in about half their series this season even against some good teams like EDG and JD but this team can't be relied on to do that. 

At these odds you could make an argument for the Vici +1.5 but I'm not going to mess with this match outside of including the FPP -1.5 in a parlay.

No wager

I've rewatched the RNG/SDG series twice now and I really just can't understand what's going on with this RNG team. On one hand you could say RNG tried the Kayle out in game one and still almost won. (side note: Uzi was unbelievable in this game watch it). On the other hand you could say RNG really just look lost in team fights. It honestly feels like nobody else is doing anything in these games and teams are just all in blitzing Uzi and RNG can't take advantage of that. It's a really tough thing to figure out. RNG have been sometimes been playing with good macro and play defense well as evidenced by SDG's struggle to close that game one but this isn't a consistent thing.

It might just be fatigue or laziness but RNG look a bit like they're just going through the motions. Against teams with playoff aspirations like SDG for example, you simply can't do that and unlike Invictus who have been reckless aggressive, RNG don't even appear to be consciously thinking about a lot of things in these games. 

All of this said I actually am going to bet RNG here. I know they've looked bad but this is their last regular season game and a win could potentially secure them the #4 seed if EDG lose to IG later this week which would give them a first round bye and potentially some rest for what appears to be a really exhausted team (at least to my eyes). I don't normally bet lines above -200 and almost never heavily but OMG are more or less barely better than a challenger team and I'm fairly certain RNG could sweep this in their sleep. The counterargument is that OMG did just take a series decisively over a team that likes to play in much the same style of scaling that RNG does in RW but RW are arguably the worst team in the league (like OMG and Vici). 

I look like a lunatic but RNG are going to take care of business here and this feels kind of free to me. Even with Zzt1ai getting his feet back under him I think RNG received a bit of a wake up call from SinoDragon yesterday and should obliterate OMG tomorrow.

"Gut": RNG -1.5 (heavy)

Confidence: 4.5/5 (handicap), 5/5 (ML)

Value: 0 /1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ -204 (5 units)

LMS Spring 2019 - W10D3:

I think the MAD -1.5 is intriguing at plus money. Just thought I'd mention it. G-Rex managed to take a game in this series the first time around. The counterargument is that MAD just punted a series to Alpha and G-Rex took a game off of Flash Wolves and won three of their other previous four series. MAD also need these wins if they want the #1 seed which, much like Korea, seeds you directly to the finals. It's also worth noting that Flash Wolves and MAD team play in the final game of the season later this week and both teams are currently tied in match score while MAD holds the 2-1 edge in the head to head (first tiebreaker).

On second thought I'm going to put a couple units on MAD here and keep an eye on this for positive movement. It'd be easy to scare off after their pathetic loss to Alpha but MAD are the better team here by quite a bit and if I think the MAD 2-0 is the most likely outcome and we're getting plus odds I'm going to fire. 

"Gut": MAD -1.5 (moderate)

Confidence: 3.5/5 (handicap), 4.5/5 (ML)

Value: 1.0 /1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: MAD Team -1.5 maps @ +105 (2 units)