Betting: March 23rd (LCK, LPL, LMS, NA LCS)

LCK Spring 2019 - W9D2:

We talked about this one quite a bit on the pod considering the two teams at hand. With Gen.G's win today, KT Rolster move into a situation where they're battling to not have to play their relegation match and Afreeca have two match wins up on them. The lowdown is this. KT Rolster play Jin Air, Hanwha Life, and DAMWON to finish out the season. Afreeca have two more matches one each against Kingzone and SK Telecom. It's likely that Afreeca lose those final two and move to 5-13 in match score. KT Rolster need to win two of their next three in convincing fashion in order to tie and the tiebreaker is game differential. Currently KT are -14 and Afreeca are -12 so KT are going to be extra motivated not to drop any maps if possible. 

So the question is whether we think KT Rolster can cleanly 2-0 Jin Air. I'm thinking yes and before you all jump in with your "oh but the meta is moving towards the way Jin Air play" argument I'm going to slap it right down and just ask you to look at this challenger team and then look me in the eye and tell me they care enough to even show up for this match. Jin Air are actually locked into 10th place. Their game differential is so far down that even with back to back match wins against KT and Griffin (lol) they couldn't catch up. KT are going to give it their all in this match and Jin Air are still trying to figure out what roster they like. 

I know Jin Air have taken some games/series recently but this feels like a KT stomping to me. We have had a lot of trouble trusting this KT team to close games and while it terrifies me to no end to bet a KT sweep on this patch where closing cleanly is important I can't help but think this team is going to be up for this game. I also think they have superior players at every position and yes, that includes both ADCs. People are going to be afraid to bet this one because it's KT but I'm going to be aggressive and actually take the KT sweep here. We're not really getting any particularly great value but I do feel very confident in this selection, something I never thought I'd say about KT. 

"Gut": KT Rolster -1.5 (moderate)

Confidence: 3.5/5 (handicap), 4.5/5 (ML)

Value: 0 /1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ -139 (2 units)

I said it on the podcast and I'll say it again. Unless there is a disaster I'll be betting the Griffin -1.5 for the rest of the split. We get some value because people are overhyping some losses. Griffin are still clearly the best team in the LCK and to me it's not particularly close even heading into a changing meta. Like I said in my last post, patch changes and "Sword being patched out" is an extremely overblown declaration. I'm saying all of this and still acknowledging that DAMWON need this win. What people don't realize is that Griffin also need this win to hold on to #1. Actually with a win here and a series up on SK Telecom they could clinch the #1 seed because of game differential with a win here. 

I love betting against people doubting a great team due to a few losses and that's what we're doing here. I know Griffin punished us for betting them back to back coming off their first loss but I'm going to ride with them. As I've said, I think this team is exceptional. They're special and different and they're able to clinch #1 with a win here. I love Griffin at this number even against a good, desperate team in DAMWON.

"Gut": Griffin -1.5 (heavy)

Confidence: 4.0/5 (handicap), 4.5/5 (ML)

Value: 1.0 /1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: Griffin -1.5 maps @ -122 (4 units) 

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LPL Spring 2019 - W9D5:

Road will be starting for Victory Five and Suning are starting a new ADC. I don't know enough about either of these players but I do know that this line opened at -263/+172 and this is where it is now. I tend to think a change of pace benefits both teams but before the changes I kinda liked V5 +172 just because that number is out of line because these two teams aren't that far apart. Both of these teams have been inconsistent and disappointing and with these change ups I just don't know how these teams are going to respond. I'm abstaining because I just don't know the new Suning carry at all.

No wager

I put this bet in when this was +189 but I'd still bet this at that number. I absolutely love EDG here primarily because I think Top, while definitely an elite team, are not this much better than EDG and because I think if both teams played at their ceilings EDG would win. Top have also clinched a playoff berth already and will be potentially taking the foot off the gas a little. I'm not saying Top aren't going to be trying but I do think they'll be a little less motivated than EDG who not only have a tough remaining schedule but still need the wins, albeit less after beating BiliBili. TopSports also just lost a series to WE and while they're a team that's surging at the moment in a metagame that suits them, they're still not as good a team as EDG. TopSports aren't as easily exposed at FunPlus and are still one of the best teams in the LPL but I think the top five teams are all pretty close and none of them deserve to be this heavy a favorite over one another in my opinion. 

EDG need the win, TopSports don't AND I think this line should be closer to even than this.

"Gut": EDG ML (moderate)

Confidence: 1.5/5 (handicap), 3.5/5 (ML)

Value: 1.5 /1.5 (handicap), 1.5/1.5 (ML)

Moneyline: EDG +189 (3 units)

The new "best" rivalry in League of Legends and a potential final preview! RNG have been IG's kryptonite but I can't help but feel that the script will be flipped here. The deal with this game is this, the "smart" bet is RNG because they're an underdog with side selection and homefield and these two teams are basically even, give or take a few percentage points. So if you're going to bet this either take RNG or take a stand on either of the 2-0's for value, otherwise just watch. I happen to think IG are, and have been the better team and just so happened to drop two playoff series to RNG. I think the revenge factor is real, and I think IG are just the better team overall. 

That said this is a popcorn game. I'm placing a light wager, mostly for fun, on the IG -1.5 because I think it's totally reasonable to expect IG to come out 200% to shut all the naysayers up and conquer their own personal boogeyman. 

"Gut": IG -1.5 (light)

Confidence: 2.5/5 (handicap), 2.5/5 (ML)

Value: 1.0 /1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: Invictus -1.5 maps @ +168 (1 unit)

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LMS Spring 2019 - W9D2:

For now no wagers but might bet MAD -1.5 tomorrow. I don't feel strongly enough about this slate but the MAD -1.5 is intriguing. Only reason that number is that way is because AHQ swept Flash Wolves. Don't think it's likely they do it again, the team isn't that good.

No wagers 

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North American LCS Spring 2019 - W9D1:

(BetOnline lines)

(images from Leaguepedia.com)

The last week of the NA LCS is fairly uninteresting this year. The things you need to know:

• Team Liquid have already secured #1
• Cloud 9, Team Solo Mid, and FlyQuest have already clinched a playoff berth
• Cloud 9 clinch #2 with any win this weekend
• 100 Thieves are the only team truly mathematically eliminated but Clutch would need to 2-0 and have a few things fall their way to get the #6 seed. Highly unlikely.

As it stands I'll just tell you my predictions because it will paint how I'm betting this. I think OpTic are getting in with one of the two remaining seeds. They're a one dimensional team but they're very confident and have been looking the strongest of the bottom six LCS teams in recent weeks in my opinion. I think they take down Golden Guardians today and 100 Thieves tomorrow which will put Golden Guardians in a must win against FlyQuest who are basically locked into 4th because of TSM's lead. FlyQuest have little to nothing to play for this weekend other than momentum. It'd be pretty hard to make a legitimate case other than "best of ones dude..." for FlyQuest (which is why I'm playing them in DFS #Contrarian). 

Those are the only games I feel strongly about on this entire slate tbh. I don't dislike betting any heavy underdog against any team that has nothing to play for but I won't be doing that in every situation this week. Examples of that include Echo Fox +274 vs TL and FlyQuest +147 vs C9. I don't include Clutch vs TSM in that list because TSM are technically still playing Cloud 9 for the #2 seed which matters in NA because #1 and #2 both get first round byes. 

I'll be riding with Echo Fox +274 for one unit because Echo Fox are not eliminated and need to 2-0 this weekend while Team Liquid have nothing to play for and I'd assume would rather not show anything unless they absolutely have to. Echo Fox are going to throw the kitchen sink at this game and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them steal a win. Do I think it's likely? Not particularly because I think TL could win this even just playing vanilla but I think it's more likely than these odds imply so I'm going to bet it.

Moneyline: Echo Fox +274 (1 unit)

I'm also going to put two units on OpTic +111 vs Golden Guardians. I love Froggen and think he's still a great player but his team has brought absolutely nothing to the table the past couple of weeks. This team is in a spiral and I frankly don't trust them to get it together for even a week in a must win situation. I wanted GG to be good so badly this season but they just aren't. I'm not sure what happened to some of these players but expectations have not been met. OpTic look confident, GG do not. I'm sticking with the momentum and the team with the best individual player here.

Moneyline: OpTic +111 (2 units)

I know on the cast I said I liked CLG here after John convinced me  but I've flip flipped again. I tend to love fading the "they're done" narrative. For as bad as 100 Thieves have looked I can't help but think this team wants to end this season on literally any positive not they possibly can and I think Counter Logic Gaming are terrible. I'm putting a half unit on 100 Thieves. I don't think CLG are -217 better than literally anybody in this league and 100 Thieves could want to play spoiler and perhaps end the season on any kind of good note they can muster. I'll go down with the "they can't possibly be this bad" ship one last time.

Also if 3-4 academy players start I still like this pick. I really think CLG are trash and I'd rather the academy players giving it their all showing for a job next season over CLG. Again this is a light half unit wager. I also think people tend to over compensate for subs especially if it's a bad team subbing.

Moneyline: 100 Thieves +167 (0.5 units)