Betting: March 4th and 5th (LPL)

BiliBili looked pretty good in their win against a team that I had rated a tier better than them in SinoDragon but I'm still a bit skeptical on this squad still. That said Vici are steadily climbing themselves out of the muck with 4 games wins in their last nine games. I know that's not particularly exciting but it shows improvement. They were stomped by RNG but did managed to beat SinoDragon before the break and take a game off of both EDG and Victory Five this season as well. Their other wins don't really carry much weight with me because they've all been against other bottom tier teams in the LPL. Vici are tough to read. They've shown sparks but are ultimately really inconsistent. 

This is a watered down version of a battle between fast and slow. Neither team is particularly far on the spectrum but generally Vici want to play uptempo and BiliBili, much like last year, prefer to play a slower, more controlled style. I think BiliBili are a better team but that this is a stylistic mismatch. I also think that BiliBili have been somewhat getting away with murder in some ways but that their players are individually strong enough to get away with it. This is a tough game to cap. I like the Vici +1.5 @ -115 but the odds are more or less right in line with where'd I'd put them. It'd be a mild surprise to see Vici win this but not a complete shocker. That said, I also think BiliBili are winning a lot more than I'd expected them to in this metagame. I was going to put a unit on the Vici +1.5 here but I don't think there is enough value and I also think the metagame is potentially moving into a BiliBili favored spot which makes me think that perhaps they'll end up randomly spiking and making playoffs. They managed to get through the tough meta for their roster without too many losses and with things trending the other way I could see them being sort of like 100 Thieves last year and just getting a little lucky on patches working for them.

They could also regress so who knows. I'm abstaining but a heavy lean on the Vici +1.5.

No wager (strong lean Vici +1.5)

For as bad as Snake have looked this season I absolutely love them in this spot. First the counterargument. This is something I want to start to do more. If we assume the LPL is going to be on Patch 9.3 tomorrow which I believe is true but have yet to find anything definitive on then you could argue that the meta slowing down a bit definitely favors Team WE from a roster construction standpoint with strong scaling players and a team that traditionally has performed well in those types of metas but these aren't the same players.

 These are two teams that have been really bad this season but both have some definitive wins against other weak teams so it's really tough to find any sort of edge one way or the other based on schedule or strength of opponent especially recently. So why do I love Snake so much? This team has shown some resiliency even after lost games they bounce back very strong. Against Vici, a team similar to Team WE and SS, they definitively lost game one and immediately demolished them in games two and three. Snake also really enjoy forcing early action, something that Team WE typically struggles with. Snake will also have side selection here so they can create draft difficulties for the one dimensional Team WE. I also prefer Snake in the metrics but they can be a bit deceiving because of the types of compositions Team WE play so take their weaker damage per gold numbers with a grain of salt. 

Really this is a series that, in my opinion, should be closer to even money and I haven't the slightest idea why WE is so heavily favored in a battle between what should ultimately be two evenly matched, albeit stylistically opposed squads. I'd hammer this for a lot more if it wasn't two bad teams but I like Snake's scrappy, brawling nature to Team WE's controlled, scaling approach even with the incoming patch changes. I also love picking a side to 2-0 in matchups between bad teams so we'll be doing something light there as well. This line is just too far off even if you take into consideration all the factors that SHOULD be working in Team WE's favor. Keep in mind this 2-0 is mostly that I like throwing small wagers on the 2-0 when two weaker teams play because it's fairly easy for one team to just have a bad day when you get poor, inconsistent teams. 

(UPDATE: Few readers have pointed out that this has wildly different lines at different books. I've seen even and I've even seen Snake favored by -135. Shop around because the value is a big part of why I'm betting this 3 units but I wouldn't bet it more than one at Snake -135)

Moneyline: Snake +131 (3 units)

Prop: Exact Snake 2-0 @ +351 (0.5 units)

Mad respect to OMG for a great series against Suning this morning after being dominated in game one. OMG aren't a great team but they sure show a lot of fight. SinoDragon are also coming off of an impressive 2-1 victory over one of the big dogs in TopSports but they also struggled against BBG who may be better than I want to admit so that's not nearly as shameful a loss as I would have thought at the beginning of the season. I think SinoDragon should be heavy favorites here. They're, in my opinion, a team that's going to challenge for top 6 while OMG appear to be a bottom tier team but both teams are playing well at the moment. I think the value here is in SinoDragon -1.5. They're a significantly better team and I think they're much more likely to be as good as they've shown while OMG are likely playing at their ceiling right now. This could easily turn into an easy stomp and the odds don't show that.

Handicapped: SinoDragon -1.5 maps @ +139 (3 units)

I know they've faced IG, EDG, and FPP in the past five matches but what happened to this Suning team... On the cast we compared them to Afreeca in that this team's players are simply too good to be this bad but honestly after stomping OMG in game one to lose that series somehow is shameful. I don't know what's going on with this team but we're getting to the point not where tilt could be a factor. I personally still think this team should at least take one step forward over the course of the rest of the season. Between new players gelling, language barriers, and just general improvement over a season, I think this team could at least definitively separate themselves from the bottom tier of teams. I know that's a far cry from the top four contender we thought we had going into the season but we have to evaluate the new reality we have with this team. 

I know I look like a lunatic here but LGD are downright awful and they, along with Rogue Warriors, appear to be the worst teams in the LPL by a fair margain. If you exclude a totally flukey win against Invictus coming back off the break this team hasn't won a series this year and for as down on Suning and disappointed as we have been I just can't see LGD doing anything against this team. Suning absolutely smoked OMG in game one and while they somehow lost that series I'm willing to bet against the tilt rather than for it with players of this caliber. If they lose this series I'm likely done with them for the season but I think there is enough value here and LGD is bad enough that we can actually get a 2-0. I love betting on teams when everyone is down on them no matter how awful they've looked. 

Handicapped: Suning -1.5 maps @ -143 (4 units)

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Parlay (2): Suning -1.5 + SinoDragon -1.5 @ +306 (1 unit)

Parlay (3): Suning -1.5 + SinoDragon -1.5 + Snake ML @ +839 (0.5 units)