LCK Spring 2019 - W6D4:
I've discussed why I think Gen.G are an awful team quite a bit the short version is that the way they WANT to play the game is just so bad right now and they continue to try to play that way other than Peanut. Hanwha just got smashed by Kingzone who we all agree are a top three or four team but Hanwha are a decent team that appear like they'll be in the hunt for the last playoff spot as we advance into the second half of the season. They have the right approach and their players are solid, albeit not world beaters. Hanwha Life also dropped a game to Afreeca which is cause for concern. However the last time these two teams met Hanwha completely ran over Gen.G rather decisively and I think that's what's going to happen again here. This picture was taken of the lines Friday afternoon. This line has since moved to Hanwha -222 and the -1.5 @ +136. I absolutely love those odds but I'm not going to hammer this because I do think that the game loss to Afreeca is reason enough to believe Hanwha could drop a game here. Regardless we'll be two units on the -1.5 because we've gotten valuable line movement and I do still think it's the most likely outcome.
Handicapped: Hanwha -1.5 maps @ +136 (2 units)
This is an exciting match. I think these are the #2 and #3 teams in the LCK and while I think SKT are a tier above Kingzone because of their ceiling but I actually think Kingzone are playing well right now and SKT aren't playing quite as well as they could be. I think SKT win this series but Kingzone could just as easily win and when the lines are this far apart it tells me to bet the dog. Kingzone get side selection, have looked excellent and improving every week, and the line value is right.
We're going to cover a few bases here because I actually think the most likely outcome is an SK Telecom 2-1 victory, the second most likely outcome is a 2-1 Kingzone win, and the 3rd most likely is either sweep. I like the exact scores in this type of match as well as the over 2.5 games played but the moneyline wager is because I think there is a greater chance of Kingzone winning than those odds imply so we get some value there.
Moneyline: Kingzone +144 (1 unit)
Prop: OVER 2.5 maps played @ +110 (1.5 units)
Prop: Exact SKT 2-1 @ +227 (0.25 units)
We're going to cover a few bases here because I actually think the most likely outcome is an SK Telecom 2-1 victory, the second most likely outcome is a 2-1 Kingzone win, and the 3rd most likely is either sweep. I like the exact scores in this type of match as well as the over 2.5 games played but the moneyline wager is because I think there is a greater chance of Kingzone winning than those odds imply so we get some value there.
Moneyline: Kingzone +144 (1 unit)
Prop: OVER 2.5 maps played @ +110 (1.5 units)
Prop: Exact SKT 2-1 @ +227 (0.25 units)
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LPL Spring 2019 - W6D6:
(^ this above picture is from Friday afternoon ^)
(^ This is from Saturday ^)
The reason I'm pointing this out is that RNG were heavier favorites on Friday but their -1.5 handicap was at better odds than it is now even though they're less of a favorite. Weird right? Anyway I'm not sure how much that has to do with anything but I just found it odd. If you think the most likely outcome is still 2-0 then why the odd shift on the -1.5?
I like Victory 5 a lot and I think they're a good team that's going to be the new arrival to the B tier at some point this season (or maybe high C-tier). Even after the loss the other day I think Victory 5 are still better than JD so hopefully next week after an 0-2 weekend we get some sweet value betting V5.
That said I think RNG are still trailing in the standings after their slow start and I expected them to be prepared for this matchup. They're still an elite team in this region and should handedly 2-0 this but unfortunately the odds aren't that great for us as we simply lost 20 points on it for seemingly no reason. I was going to hammer this one but instead I'll just be putting a unit on the -1.5 and putting it in a handful of parlays.
Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ -167 (1 unit)
The reason I'm pointing this out is that RNG were heavier favorites on Friday but their -1.5 handicap was at better odds than it is now even though they're less of a favorite. Weird right? Anyway I'm not sure how much that has to do with anything but I just found it odd. If you think the most likely outcome is still 2-0 then why the odd shift on the -1.5?
I like Victory 5 a lot and I think they're a good team that's going to be the new arrival to the B tier at some point this season (or maybe high C-tier). Even after the loss the other day I think Victory 5 are still better than JD so hopefully next week after an 0-2 weekend we get some sweet value betting V5.
Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ -167 (1 unit)
I spoke about this match a bit on the podcast. I think Suning have looked really bad this season but to me this team simply can't be this bad. In much the same way as Afreeca this team just can't be this bad. This team has to at least take some steps forward. I also think OMG looked great at the beginning of the season but have fallen off a cliff since then. I love this as a "get right" spot for Suning to start a late season climb. As bad as Suning have been I still think they're a B tier or higher team by the end of the season and OMG just aren't good. I LOVE that we're getting plus odds on the 2-0 and money has actually come in on OMG so we're getting even better odds than this.
Handicapped: Suning -1.5 @ +114 (3 units)
Handicapped: Suning -1.5 @ +114 (3 units)
Another match that all of us on the cast were in agreement on. Invictus make it a statement every time to smash other good teams so even when they punt games to bad teams trying to style/speedrun they play a lot cleaner against good teams. We all like FunPlus Phoenix and I'm glad they've arrived as a new contender in the LPL but they aren't in the same league as Invictus to me who are still going to be one of, if not the best team in the world by the end of Spring. It's rare we get plus odds for them even to 2-0 so we're going to take this. Money has actually come in on FunPlus which is wild to me and a reason we digressed and talked about public money on known names on the cast.
I love the Invictus 2-0 here but FunPlus is a great team so we're not going to be too heavy on it.
Handicapped: Invictus -1.5 maps @ +134 (2 units)
I also like putting a parlay on the triple sweep tomorrow.
Parlay (3): Suning -1.5 + Invictus -1.5 + RNG -1.5 @ total odds +701 (0.5 units)
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NA LCS Spring 2019 - W6D2:
Cloud 9 did a good job clawing back into that game yesterday but honestly Golden Guardians jumped out on them and I could definitely see TSM doing the same especially with how good they've looked recently. I think Cloud 9 are the better team but this is a great spot for TSM regardless of whether or not Blaber or Sven starts. Maybe it was a bad week of practice or maybe it's the Blaber effect but I kinda like TSM here. Bit of a sucker bet I'll admit so tail at your own caution.
Moneyline: TSM +105 (1 unit)
CLG have looked outstanding recently and I'm starting to believe it but I also think they might not be quite this good. Liquid are far and away the best team in NA and it's not close. Sort of like Korea there is one team way ahead of the rest then the #2 team is pretty clearly better than the rest. I think that's Liquid and C9. Liquid should handle CLG but this is a best of one format and CLG have been playing really well recently. There is reason to bet CLG at +325 here. I don't think it'll happen but I'm going to put a half unit because I think there's a better chance of CLG stealing this game than the odds imply.
Moneyline: CLG +325 (0.5 units)
Two struggling teams that I want to believe are top five quality teams by seasons end but it's really tough to like either of these squads right now. I don't know how this is going to go honestly. My gut says Golden Guardians but I don't feel strongly enough either way here.
No wager (lean Golden Guardians)
I was in a group chat with the cast guys and I said that I'd slam Echo Fox after that humiliating loss Clutch had yesterday but it is Echo Fox... Man what a clown fiesta of a first two games yesterday afternoon. Truthfully I can't bring myself to put more than a unit on two bad teams like this but I'm going to ride with Echo Fox. Clutch have to be beyond frustrated. As a matter of fact there are a few teams in NA that have to be feeling the stress like crazy. FlyQuest, 100 Thieves, Clutch, Golden Guardians. They can't seem to get any kind of momentum going and were expected (besides Clutch) to be good teams this year. I wouldn't tail this but I'm going to be betting the Clutch narrative here. That loss yesterday was totally humiliating. There is just as much reason to bet Clutch to bounce because of that same humiliation but it's just up to you.
Moneyline: Echo Fox -128 (1 unit)
I'm not entirely sure what's going on with FlyQuest and it's hard to tell whether or not CLG is actually just decent or FlyQuest are awful. I know it's been a rough road the past few weeks but I'm not too hot on OpTic either. I like FlyQuest here for a unit. This would've been more but they really have looked pretty bad and this is a bit of a prayer that they can return to early season form at least a little against a fellow struggling OpTic team.
Moneyline: FlyQuest -125 (1 unit)
Cloud 9 did a good job clawing back into that game yesterday but honestly Golden Guardians jumped out on them and I could definitely see TSM doing the same especially with how good they've looked recently. I think Cloud 9 are the better team but this is a great spot for TSM regardless of whether or not Blaber or Sven starts. Maybe it was a bad week of practice or maybe it's the Blaber effect but I kinda like TSM here. Bit of a sucker bet I'll admit so tail at your own caution.
Moneyline: TSM +105 (1 unit)
CLG have looked outstanding recently and I'm starting to believe it but I also think they might not be quite this good. Liquid are far and away the best team in NA and it's not close. Sort of like Korea there is one team way ahead of the rest then the #2 team is pretty clearly better than the rest. I think that's Liquid and C9. Liquid should handle CLG but this is a best of one format and CLG have been playing really well recently. There is reason to bet CLG at +325 here. I don't think it'll happen but I'm going to put a half unit because I think there's a better chance of CLG stealing this game than the odds imply.
Moneyline: CLG +325 (0.5 units)
Two struggling teams that I want to believe are top five quality teams by seasons end but it's really tough to like either of these squads right now. I don't know how this is going to go honestly. My gut says Golden Guardians but I don't feel strongly enough either way here.
No wager (lean Golden Guardians)
I was in a group chat with the cast guys and I said that I'd slam Echo Fox after that humiliating loss Clutch had yesterday but it is Echo Fox... Man what a clown fiesta of a first two games yesterday afternoon. Truthfully I can't bring myself to put more than a unit on two bad teams like this but I'm going to ride with Echo Fox. Clutch have to be beyond frustrated. As a matter of fact there are a few teams in NA that have to be feeling the stress like crazy. FlyQuest, 100 Thieves, Clutch, Golden Guardians. They can't seem to get any kind of momentum going and were expected (besides Clutch) to be good teams this year. I wouldn't tail this but I'm going to be betting the Clutch narrative here. That loss yesterday was totally humiliating. There is just as much reason to bet Clutch to bounce because of that same humiliation but it's just up to you.
Moneyline: Echo Fox -128 (1 unit)
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