Betting: March 24th (LCK, LPL, LMS, NA LCS)

LCK Spring 2019 - W9D4:

I put this bet in on Wednesday night shortly after the show but I'm on Sandbox -1.5. With their loss last match, Hanwha aren't mathematically eliminated from playoffs but they'd have to win out AND DAMWON would have to lose out which isn't something anybody sees happening with DAMWON facing Gen.G and KT. It's not out of the realm of possibility at all but it's certainly not likely. I mentioned during my selection of Griffin -1.5 against Hanwha that playing back to back to back "must win" games is not only exhausting but demoralizing, especially when you lose all three of them. I can't see Hanwha being up for this game. Add in the fact that I think Sandbox are a tier above them AND need this game to stay in the running for the #2 seed with Kingzone and SK Telecom. They could also secure a minimum of the #4 seed with a victory here.

Combine all of these factors and you have a recipe for a biblical beatdown. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Sandbox absolutely obliterate Hanwha in this spot. Hanwha have exhausted all of their draft surprises, they physically looked defeated against Griffin before and after the games, and Sandbox are exactly the kind of team that can taste blood in the water and attack. We're also getting plus odds on what I believe is the most likely outcome in this series which I'm going to attack every single time.

"Gut": Sandbox -1.5 (heavy)

Confidence: 4.5/5 (handicap), 5/5 (ML)

Value: 1.0/1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: Sandbox -1.5 maps @ +139 (5 units)

Anybody that watched Afreeca and Gen.G doesn't really need reason to justify this one. Afreeca are terrible and Kingzone look like the 3rd best, arguably the 2nd best team in the LCK right now. They're looking excellent recently. I also put this one in on Wednesday night/Thursday morning and we've lost some odds on it but once again we're getting plus odds or close to it on what I believe to be the most likely outcome. I'm going to fire every single time. Kingzone have also been one of the few teams that haven't dropped a lot of random games to middle and bottom of the table teams this season. They've lost 0-2 to SKT, Hanwha, Sandbox, and Griffin, lost a 1-2 to SKT, and had a 2-1 win against Gen.G, other than that they've 2-0'd EVERY OTHER SERIES. Kingzone take care of business and with the possibility to steal the #2 seed from SK Telecom as well as Sandbox also fighting for the same spot, Kingzone are not only going to be incentivized to win this game but specifically 2-0 it against a bad team. 

They've done it all season and they have tons of motivation to do it again. I absolutely love this pick. I'm actually going to add on to it and make it my pick of the week.

"Gut": Kingzone -1.5 (heavy)

Confidence: 4.5/5 (handicap), 5/5 (ML)

Value: 1.0/1.5 (handicap this was 1.5 at + odds), 0/1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ +104 (3 units)

Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ -132 (3 units)(Add on)

COMBINED PICK OF THE WEEK!

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LPL Spring 2019 - W9D6:

I put this bet in during the show on Wednesday night. I think BiliBili are being severely underrated here because they've hit a tought part of their schedule and lost three series in a row but all of them were three game series and two of them were against great teams in EDG and RNG as well as a decent Team WE who are well positioned in the metagame. Do I think BiliBili are as good as the top five teams? I don't but they're not far and as a matter of fact I think they're the best of the rest in the LPL. 

This line shouldn't be this far apart. FunPlus have struggled the past couple of weeks both because of their schedule and because they've been a bit figured out. They haven't really adjusted at all, they're just brute forcing their way through teams which is actually impressive. This team is so good and so decisive that, despite being one dimensional, they're just overpowering people. Props to FunPlus but I think between being locked for playoffs (more or less) and BiliBili being underrated we're getting a lot of line value here. These two teams shouldn't be this far apart. I do think FunPlus are better but this line should be like -160 or something like that not -357... that's disrespectful to a team that's an intelligent macro team and will know how to execute the plan other teams have laid out to defeat FunPlus. I also think the players on BiliBili are being somehow underrated this season. ADD and Kuro have been out of this world for old school Korean players in a competitive LPL, a region that stylistically doesn't fit them. 

I'm going to be splitting on the moneyline and handicap here.

"Gut": BiliBili ML (moderate)

Confidence: 3.5/5 (handicap), 2.5/5 (ML)

Value: 1.5/1.5, 1.5/1.5 (ML)

Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming +238 (2 units)

Handicapped: BiliBili +1.5 maps @ -137 (3 units)

I'm still skeptical of Team WE and maybe it's stupid that I'm not firing heavy on what looks like easy money here but I'm going to limit myself to two units on this. We're still getting close to even money on what I think is the most likely outcome (theme of the day....). The TL:DR here is that Vici look like one of the worst teams in the league and Team WE are in a meta that fits the one strength they have. If this was at any other part of the season I'd actually like Vici here because they've shown the ability to play spoiler against decent teams this season but Team WE are still in the momentum driver's seat at the moment and I'm not going to look a potential gift horse in the mouth.

"Gut": Team WE -1.5 (light)

Confidence: 4.0/5 (handicap), 4.5/5 (ML)

Value: 1.0/1.5, 0/1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: Team WE -1.5 maps @ -102 (2 units)

Maybe the two worst teams in the LPL. We talked about this one on the cast a bit and I'm actually going to use our double 2-0 approach. In series with two awful teams it's often a matter of who shows up that day. There's almost a higher chance of either team winning 2-0 than there is a close three game series. I do think Rogue Warriors have the best player in this game in ZWuji but I'm going to split a unit each on the 2-0's here as I don't feel strongly either way just that we'll get a lopsided series. Either OMG will "stun" RW with a map one win and then win game two or Rogue Warriors will pound OMG in map one and the same thing. You could make an argument for always betting the underdog here too and OMG are at home for this series. On the cast I said I "kinda liked" OMG here because if they're going to get any kind of win this season this is the spot but I'm going to recind that recommendation. I wouldn't fault you for that though.

"Gut": OMG +125 (lean)

Confidence: 1.5/5 (handicap), 2.5/5 (ML)

Value: 0/1.5, 0.5/1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: Rogue Warriors -1.5 @ +177 (1 unit)

Prop: Exact OMG 2-0 @ +294 (1 unit)

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Parlay (2): Sandbox -1.5 + Kingzone -1.5 @ +293 (1 unit)

Parlay (3): Sandbox -1.5 + Kingzone -1.5 + Team WE -1.5 @ +659 (0.5 units)

Parlay (5, full Eastern slate prediction): Sandbox -1.5 + Kingzone -1.5 + Team WE -1.5 + BiliBili +1.5 + Rogue Warriors -1.5 @ total odds +3537 (0.25 units)

Parlay (5, full Eastern slate prediction with BiliBili win): Sandbox -1.5 + Kingzone -1.5 + Team WE -1.5 + BiliBili ML + Rogue Warriors -1.5 @ total odds +7132 (0.25 units)

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VCS Spring 2019:

I haven't watched a lot of the VCS this year but I was perusing the other leagues and spotted what looked kinda weird. First of all Sky and EVOS are the #2 and #3 respectively but Sky have significantly better metrics they look, statistically speaking, a cut above the rest of the league. In other words there's a big gap between #2 and #3. Sky Gaming decisively 2-0'd the first meeting between these two teams with two sub 29 minute blowouts. EVOS haven't taken a single game from either of the top two teams this season and recently they've even lost a few games to middle of the table teams. This is sort of like the LMS. The top two are pretty clear, the #3 is better than the rest but not remotely close to the top two and the rest of the league is weak. Getting +187 on the exact same result happening seems absurd to me and while I don't normally fire this aggressively on leagues I don't follow closely I just thought it looked bizarre. We're going to try our hand here.

Handicapped: Sky Gaming -1.5 maps @ +187 (1.5 units)

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North American LCS W9D2:

(pending)