Betting: March 30th (LCK, LPL, LMS, NA LCS)

The Gold Card Podcast - Episode 6 is out!

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LCK Spring 2019 - W10D3:

With a loss this morning KT didn't quite seal their fate as the #9 seed yet because Gen.G and Afreeca both have matches still AND KT has one more but KT now need to win their next series. What this means for Gen.G is that with a single game taken in this series they can avoid relegation based on game differential IF they take a single game. 

We've lost a few clicks of value since recording the podcast last night but as I mentioned then, I think Sandbox are exactly the kind of team that don't take games off and stylistically they're a difficult matchup for Gen.G. Gen.G struggled a lot with DAMWON who is a similar team in many ways to Sandbox. 

I'm a little surprised this line is this low so while I was initially going to be light on it, the more I look at it the more appetizing it seems to me. Sandbox should blow Gen.G out of the water even with Gen.G needing this win to stave off a potential relegation series. The catch here is that Sandbox are now locked into the #4 seed because Kingzone managed to win this morning against Griffin. They don't really have anything to play for except momentum but as we talked about before this is a young, new team and typically newer teams don't mess around with the "coasting into playoffs" method. They don't always respond to the negative momentum so I actually expect Sandbox to show up here. 

I made this my pick of the week on the podcast and I'm having just a bit of buyers remorse but I still feel pretty strongly about it. There is a good chance I get burned on this one because Kingzone managed to clinch #3 but I expect Sandbox were already preparing hard for this match and should be able to handle Gen.G even with these conflicting motivational factors. Sandbox should show up here and if anything they'll want to make a statement to their first round foes DAMWON that they too can smash Gen.G. We're also getting a reasonable value even though this was +108 yesterday.

"Gut": Sandbox -1.5 (moderate)

Confidence: 4.0/5 (handicap), 0/5 (ML)

Value: 0.5 /1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: Sandbox -1.5 maps @ -103 (4 units)

I mentioned it on the podcast but I actually think a veteran team like SK Telecom are more likely to take this series off than the hungry new comers in Sandbox. Luckily for us we don't really need to make that decision because these odds are quite far out of range for us in a situation where Afreeca must win and SK Telecom only need to win a single game because they would still own the head to head tiebreaker against Kingzone. As long as SKT don't get shutout here this doesn't matter to them.

That said I think Afreeca are a wild team and I actually think there is a reasonable chance they take a game or even this series. It's not likely but it's certainly more likely than these odds imply considering the situation SK Telecom is in. However SKT could simply show up and stomp game one then coast because it'd be locked up at that point. SKT could also lose game one, get nervous, and somehow tilt off and lose game two. I could imagine that so maybe a flier on the Afreeca 2-0 @ +1071 is actually not that crazy...

I'm not going to touch this game but if I had to bet this it'd be Afreeca +1.5 for a light amount.

No wager

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LPL Spring 2019 - W10D5:

I went on a long tyrade/love fest for FunPlus Phoenix last night. The bettor in me desperately wants to play Victory Five here but FunPlus are, as I said last night, "The most LPL team to ever LPL in the LPL." This team has no tactfulness whatsoever. They're the god damn Incredible Hulk. Who needs a fancy weapon or suit of armor when you just brute force manmode through everything. I'm not saying FunPlus aren't exploitable, far from it in fact as has been demonstrated, BUT they still win a lot of times even when exposed just through raw outplaying. They're exactly the kind of team I can't stand because of how dumb they are in draft sometimes but I just can't look away. FunPlus are so quintessentially Chinese League of Legends it's hilarious and it's truly fun to watch. 

 These odds are outrageous and FunPlus Phoenix have nothing to play for but this team, DoinB inparticular as a leader, is just so gung ho and balls to the wall that I can't even imagine even with a good game plan Victory Five taking this series the way they've been playing recently. I'm not going to bet this game and while I think Victory Five is the correct spot to be, I don't think they're likely to win this even if they "exploit" the weaknesses of FunPlus. 

No wager 

We've got three popcorn games in the LPL tomorrow, and yes I call FunPlus/V5 a popcorn game because FunPlus are simply a blast to watch. BiliBili absolutely must have this game to make playoffs as they've somehow fallen to a point where they're under threat to drop to #9. TopSports are also still playing for the #2 spot which would give them directly past the first two rounds of the playoffs. In other words both teams are highly incentivized to win this series. 

BiliBili have struggled in this absolute nightmare part of their schedule. This match will make them face literally the five best teams in the LPL in a row. I do think BiliBili are the #6 team in the LPL but as we've discussed on the podcast, they're still a cut below those teams. So the question here is whether or not we think the BiliBili MUST WIN or their season is done has more weight to it than TopSports battling to get another round bye in playoffs by clinching. I agree with what John said on the cast last night. I think TopSports is the most overrated of the top five teams in the LPL but they're still better than BiliBili. The thing is BiliBili are good AND they're in a must win.

To me this series goes one of two ways. BiliBili take the first game and win this series OR TopSports take the first game and BiliBili just get crushed under the pressure and cumulative confidence loss of this rough patch. BiliBili's victory against Invictus impressed me because IG were still playing for something and BiliBili were backs against the wall, rough losses watching their playoff chances slip away and they were able to get up for that game and take down arguably the best team in the world still. That takes guts. Do I think BiliBili are likely to win this series? No, but I do think +166 is a reasonable number and I LOVE the +434. Kalvin (@RulerrSama) said he loves the TopSports 2-0 on the cast and made it his pick of the week but I'm going to opposite direction. This isn't a heavy wager but I think BiliBili can fight their way through TopSports if they were able to do the same against Invictus and while I don't think this team is quite as good as these top five teams I do think this is the team they can beat and the situation is much more dire for them.

"Gut": BiliBili ML (light)

Confidence: 3.0/5 (handicap), 3.0/5 (ML)

Value: 0 /1.5 (handicap), 0.5/1.5 (ML)

Moneyline: BiliBili +166 (1.5 units)

Prop: Exact BiliBili 2-0 @ +434 (0.5 units)

I'm might not end up betting this game but I'll certainly be dialed in to it. I kind of like EDG here for similar reasons to BiliBili in the previous game but with Invictus and TopSports battling to bypass the first two rounds of the playoffs with the #2 seed and EDG attempting to steal the #4 seed from RNG to earn a bye past the first round. With both teams being the top tier of the LPL and both with a lot to play for it's difficult to see why even the World Champs are favored by this much. Don't get me wrong I think IG are the better team but not by this much. If I end up betting this game it will be a light wager on the EDG moneyline but I'm going to wait and see if we get favorable line movement. If it goes the other direction I'll be content to just watch this one since it should be an excellent series.

No wager (lean EDG ML and/or OVER 2.5 total maps)

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LMS Spring 2019 - W9D4:

OK OK so I've been burned saying Flash Wolves are the best team in the LMS, they've looked shakey their past couple of matches but this line was quite literally Flash Wolves -192 yesterday and you're telling me that that loss, which does not eliminate their chances at first place in this final match showdown against MAD Team, dropped the odds that much? Seriously? There isn't a chance in hell that maybe, JUST MAYBE, Flash Wolves were looking past J Team this morning to this match? 

I'm all over Flash Wolves this is going to be a five unit hammer play. As a matter of fact I'm putting a unit on the Flash Wolves 2-0 also. In what universe does this line move that much because of a "bad" loss that didn't particularly matter. With a 2-0 Flash Wolves steal first place, with a 2-1 win a tiebreaker match gets played. Flash Wolves have the better metrics and the matches where they show up to play they look like the clear cut #1 team, they just take matches off. There is no way in hell they take this match off. Easy peasy slamalamadingdong!

"Gut": Flash Wolves ML (heavy)

Confidence: 3.5/5 (handicap), 4.5/5 (ML)

Value: 3.5 /1.5 (handicap), 3.5/1.5 (ML)

Moneyline: Flash Wolves -118 (5 units)

Prop: Exact Flash Wolves 2-0 @ +208 (1 unit)