Friday, March 1, 2019

Betting: March 2nd (LCK, LPL, LEC, NA LCS)

THE GOLD CARD PODCAST IS OFFICIALLY ON ITUNES!
Episode 2 was recorded Thursday night and we talk all sorts of things including every single game from this weekends major regions!

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LCK Spring 2019 - W6D3:


I'm a little surprised this isn't more heavily DAMWON favored but it is trending that way. DAMWON was -263 when we recorded the show last night. DAMWON have already recovered from their trough. It was almost as if the league figured them out and then they readjusted and are climbing again. DAMWON are the real deal and I think they'll finish ahead of Sandbox by seasons end and be in the playoffs. 

This bet comes down to whether or not you like Afreeca's new approach to things or if you think their insane solo laners can steal a game or two. I definitley think Kiin and UCal have the ability to take over games and I also believe that Nuguri has been figured out a little so this is a possibility. My general thought is that Afreeca will actually improve over the rest of the season but at this point it will probably be too late for playoffs. This team should be so much better than they are. Much like Fnatic today, do we think this team is going to start that upward trajectory in this match or the next or maybe a few more down the line because that's how you have to treat this from a betting perspective because that's where the value is going to be.

If you think Afreeca can start now then this is a good time to take the +1.5 @ -147 although I'd want slightly better odds for that. I for one think DAMWON are being slightly underrated here and I'm going to place a light wager on the -1.5 because I like the odds more than the Afreeca +1.5.

Handicapped: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ +112 (1 unit)


I actually think Sandbox is a solid team but I think they're the worst of the projected playoff teams at this point and I'm not sure that will get better for them. They are, however, still a good team and holy cow is Jin Air bad.... They have a single game win in 23 attempts. Let that sink in for a minute. They've played 11 different players including a new top jungle duo in Tana and Seize last match. Jin Air are in full "let's see what we have mode" looking ahead to next season which is totally fine from a team building standpoint but completely abysmal to watch. On the cast last night we were trying to come up with redeeming characteristics for any of the Jin Air players or potential good aspects of the team and all we could come up with was that "they don't lose fast" and that should tell you all you need to know.

Sandbox are really sloppy so this isn't "free money" necessarily and at -345 that's just too much to pay outside of larger parlays. This is a no wager.

No wager (might include Sandbox -1.5 in larger parlays)

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LPL Spring 2019 - W6D5:


I actually think Vici might be a better team here but this is ultimately two really bad teams. Last year I made an absolute killing betting these scenarios but I never like betting bad teams. One of the things I like to do, and John reiterated this on the cast as well, is to bet the 2-0's in bad team matchups because when you have two bad teams it can fluctuate almost by the day on who was feeling/playing better that day. I think Vici is the ever so slightly better team here but not by enough to bet them but I'll throw a lottery ticket at the Vici 2-0. Side selection, taking a couple games against good teams like SinoDragon, V5, EDG, and arguably Suning (although that was in week one). 

Don't feel compelled to trail but I liked the Vici 2-0 idea because +248 is pretty sweet.

Prop: Exact Vici 2-0 @ +248 (0.5 units)


This is a battle of two ridiculously inconsistent teams. Both teams have overperformed AND underperformed. BiliBili are definitely better as I think RW are probably one of the worst teams in the league but I also think they're so shakey that I think if you're going to bet this you should probably look to the underdogs and not that enticing +120 line on the -1.5. I'm going to abstain from this one. These two teams are just wild animals and nothing they do makes any sense which is really weird because BiliBili have a really defined identity they just sometimes play badly and sometimes play excellently. Too much variance for my liking.

No wager


I think JD are winning games but not really showing me that they're a good team. I'll give them credit because I definitely didn't think this team would be doing as well as they are currently but that as well as watching their games gives me more reason to believe this team is due to get punished really hard. EDG are playing EXCELLENTLY right now. ClearLove looks outstanding and they're more or less firing on all cylinders. EDG honestly look like the best team in China over the past couple weeks when you watch their games and I'm not going to let their full season body of work scare me off of this one. I LOVE EDG to 2-0 this and we get really really sweet +168 odds. If you want to play it safer the moneyline isn't out of range either.

Moneyline: EDG -179 (4 units)

Handicapped: EDG -1.5 maps @ +168 (2 units)

I'll be doing all the parlay combinations of 2 each of DAMWON -1.5, Sandbox -1.5, and EDG -1.5 as well as mixing in EDG ML. I'll also be trying all three for a full unit.

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LEC Spring 2019 - W7D2:



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NA LCS Spring 2019 - W6D1:


TSM should stomp Echo Fox but I do think this line is just a tad off. Strictly speaking there is some "value" in betting Echo Fox here but I won't be taking either side at these numbers.

No wager

It's been announced that Blaber is going to be starting in the jungle over Svenskeren for today at least. I already said I liked Golden Guardians for half a unit on the podcast because I thought this line was off and that they're better than their performance over the past two weeks. John George also made another great point that when Golden Guardians get what they want they can beat anybody in the league and I'd agree with that. Perhaps Blaber helps the draft, perhaps he limits it and they just want him getting stage reps and for Sven to get some rest but I'm going to up this Golden Guardians bet to 1.5 units. I just like the spot a lot and while I think Cloud 9 are a better team, GG are one of these mid to higher tier teams that are capable of taking games off of the top teams in NA.

Moneyline: Golden Guardians +260 (1.5 units)

I know it's an expensive line but I like FlyQuest here. They've also had a weird couple of weeks but I think CLG have been playing above their expected level and are due for some regression. I'm going to keep an eye on this closer to game time. If this number gets below 170 I'll fire for a unit but -182 is just a tad out of range for me.

No wager (strong lean to FlyQuest)

Liquid should win but OpTic have shown some signs of life with Dardoch back in the lineup and Crown playing well in the past few matches. I don't have a lottery ticket wager on OpTic here but understand that you're just playing the numbers. -500 is 83.3% implied odds of victory. In a best of one I think OpTic have more than a 16.7% chance of winning this game. I'll take a chance on that for a small amount. OpTic have looked better than they have all season and there is an off chance that Liquid start experimenting or coasting to the playoffs. Doubt but there is some non-zero chance of that happening.

Moneyline: OpTic +346 (0.5 units)

I know 100 Thieves have struggled a lot recently but I think people are overreacting WAY WAY too much to a couple rough weeks. They've had a couple games where they've had leads and just made one mistake to lose it. I also think Clutch aren't as good as this and are just being rated highly because of a couple good games. This is a classic case of underrated/overrated. I'll be three units on 100 Thieves here which is my max bet for best of one games. Keep in mind 100 Thieves had a lot of rumors flying around them that they'd be starting an academy player or two but I haven't been able to find anything to confirm since early week.

Moneyline: 100 Thieves -137 (3 units)

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Parlay (2): TSM ML + 100T ML @ +146 (0.5 units)

Parlay (3): TSM ML + 100T ML + FlyQuest ML @ +281 (0.25 units)

(FOR FUN TWO FULL SLATE PREDICTIONS)

Parlay (5): TSM ML + GG ML + FLY ML + Liquid ML + 100T @ +1545 (0.25 units)

Parlay (5): TSM ML + GG ML + FLY ML + OpTic ML + 100T ML @ +6014 (0.25 units)

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