Friday, March 8, 2019

Betting: March 9th + 10th (LCK, LPL, LMS, LEC, NA LCS)

I'm going to be on the road/competing tomorrow all day and won't be home until late so I wanted to get Saturday AND Sunday out just in case I didn't have time to write up on Sunday mornings games.

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LCK Spring 2019 - W7D3+4:


(Update: This line is now -1429, -1.5 @ -250, out of range)

This looks so tempting and I'll likely take the bait. Hanwha Life aren't a bad team they're just in a weird spot right now. Half preparing for next season and half staying in the playoff hunt for this season is a weird balance to strike. This team is good when they want to be, not great but good. I think the only reason this line is under -200 is because of their recent game losses to Gen.G and Afreeca. It really all just comes down to whether we think they'll keep shuffling the roster or stick to what was working before. Against Jin Air I'd guess that former. This is a perfect place to keep testing so that brings up our next question which is do we think Jin Air have it in them to take a game here against Hanwha with subs playing? I can't bring myself to bet that but maybe you can.

Handicapped: Hanwha -1.5 maps @ -175 (1 unit)


Apparently people heard the podcast because some money came in on Kingzone because this is now +110. We went into a lot of detail on the cast but the TL:DR is that Kingzone and DAMWON are the two best teams behind SKT and Griffin so this is actually shaping up to be an excellent matchup. I'm leaning toward Kingzone based on a couple of factors:


  • Steady Lineup: It's not that it's a bad thing to have more players on your lineup and, if anything, DAMWON have been successful shuffling things around and their subs have been excellent but there's something to be said for continuity. 
  • Vision Metrics: Kingzone have slightly better vision control metrics.
  • First Blood/Tower: Neither team is particularly good at these which is perhaps what's holding them back but Kingzone do have a slight edge in both.
  • (opinion) Kingzone have a stronger roster for this metagame: I'll take Deft in a meta like this any day of the week. Tusin and Deft have been tremendous in the bottom lane even if their numbers don't show it. They're in full control almost every game and with focus shifting to marksmen a bit more it's a boost to any Deft team.

These two teams are really evenly matched and it wouldn't surprise me to see this go either way but in a situation like this where I feel they're even and we have a dog in this +110 to +125 range I'm going to fire on the dog every time unless I have good reason not to. 


Moneyline: Kingzone +110 (1 unit)


I put this bet in earlier this week and after this mornings win over Gen.G the line has moved slightly towards KT Rolster. This team has been incredibly frustrating because they just don't seem to know how to close a game out when they have a lead but at least they've been getting leads in some games and they're at least trying to play the game the right way at the moment as I mentioned yesterday. Afreeca, on the other hand, look completely clueless. It's really quite sad because I had such high hopes for this team but I'm willing to admit defeat on this one. After losing to Jin Air and releasing a statement to "trust the staff and coaches" this team feels done to me. You could bet the bounceback or fade the public here and put some faith in Afreeca but I'm going the square approach and going hard on the "Afreeca are a dumpster fire" narrative. KT have at least shown us some signs of life. Afreeca have not.


Moneyline: KT Rolster -115 (2 units)

Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +244 (1 unit)



So I look a little goofy after my whole spiel yesterday gushing about how good Griffin is but god damn what a great series. That was the best series this year in any region I'd highly recommend checking it out. It's must watch.

I still think that's the only loss Griffin is going to give up all season. You could actually justify betting Sandbox here for a few reasons. They were the only team to take a game off them before yesterday, they're also coming off a big win against DAMWON, and Griffin had to have put a lot of time into preparing for SKT and perhaps less for Sandbox (classic let down game scenario). I'm going against that though. I think this team is on another level. I also think SKT are a better team than Sandbox by about a tier. I won't fault you for going Sandbox here, there are plenty of reasons but I'm on Griffin for any spot under -200 for the rest of the season unless we see an absolute collapse.

Handicapped: Griffin -1.5 maps @ -175 (3 units)

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LPL Spring 2019 - W7D5+6:


(UPDATE: This is now JD -139 / Sino +103)

I think these two teams are relatively close but I do think SinoDragon are the better and more exciting team. This is mostly based on the eye test. JD have had a few good wins but they've also had a few bad wins. That's right bad wins, not bad losses. I'm not sure JD are as good as their record indicates. I was low on them going into the season and they've certainly outperformed my expectations. I've adjusted accordingly but I still can't help but think they might be the worst of these B-tier LPL teams. They're almost certainly better than the bottom of the league but something just doesn't feel right with this team. They lack an identity which is so weird considering they retained a lot of their roster. They've been spoon-fed a few of their wins. Call me a skeptic but JD are in the "prove it" range for me. They have the capability to be a good team but I don't always trust teams that you can say "hey, they are winning those ugly games" about or other such cliches. 

I'm willing to be wrong here but this line moved HEAVILY in JD's favor and I'm willing to attack in this situation. SinoDragon have side selection and have, to me, been the slightly better team so far. 

Moneyline: SinoDragon +103 (3.5 units)

Prop: Exact SinoDragon 2-0 @ +247 (1 unit)



This has shifted slightly toward Rogue Warriors but as I said on the show this week Victory Five -1.5 is my pick of the week. We discussed it on the show but the TL:DR version for this is that Rogue Warriors are one of, if not, the worst team in the LPL. Their only redeeming characteristic is ZWuji and Killua and you could argue that on this patch that's a good reason to take them as dogs here but Victory Five have faced one of the hardest schedules in the LPL so far and have looked pretty good. People are down on them because their recent performance looks bad but they've also faced IG and RNG in their most recent two matches. Myself AND the cast think Victory Five are going to end up in the B-tier of LPL teams which is a drastic difference when compared to their current placement in the standings. There's a ton of value here. 

I'm not super heavy on this because I think this is a guaranteed winner but I think the combination of this team being underrated, the spot coming off of facing two of the best teams, and the fact that RW are just awful all combine to give us such a juicy line that I'm going to attack this aggressively.

Victory Five -1.5 @ +173 (5 units)


I don't have anything on this match. I was hoping we'd perhaps get some value on Suning because of their dreadful performance recently but alas nothing. I think Suning could surprise some people here but the line isn't appropriate to bet this. We talked a lot about BiliBili and even devoted an entire segment to whether we think they're real or not on the podcast. I'd encourage you to go check that out.

No wager (lean Suning but line value is bad)


This looks like it's going to be an excellent match but I don't feel strongly enough either way to bet it. I tend to like the team coming off the loss, in these situations and FunPlus also have side selection going for them but this one's a bit too close to call.  Popcorn game for sure.

No wager


Just a tad too rich to bet for me. It's like right there, my typical limit is -200 unless I think it's more or less guaranteed. Invictus randomly punt matches sometimes so I won't be betting thing outside of including it in potential parlays.

No wager (see parlay)


Same as above really. RNG tend to be a little more consistent and they need the wins after their rough start to stay up to pace with the other top teams to battle for a round one bye but this is more or less just out of range. I LOVE the double -1.5 parlay with IG and RNG though. 

Parlay (2): RNG -1.5 + IG -1.5 @ total odds +116 (1 unit)

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LMS Spring 2019 - W7D2:


I have slowly been chipping away at LMS VODs and it appears to me that Flash Wolves, after a sluggish start, are starting to solidify themselves once again as the top team in the LMS. This line seemed odd to me. Flash Wolves won 2-1 against HKA in their first match of the season and outside of two really weird, sort of flukey losses to the bad G-Rex and current #2 MAD Team (don't think that will last) Flash Wolves have been getting back to their dominant selves. They have a 200 gold differential per minute and that's with first blood only 47% of the time. They get first tower 71%. They don't clear vision quite as well as the good teams in most of the major regions which is a concern but this team is still pretty firmly the strongest team in the LMS to me mostly because if you compare them to the rest of a relatively weak league their sub-par numbers suddenly look dominant.

I love the Flash Wolves 2-0 here at plus odds. It's rare we get that with this team and Hong Kong Attitude aren't anything other than their .500 record. 

Handicapped: Flash Wolves -1.5 @ +143 (1 unit)

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LEC (Europe) Spring 2019 - W8D2:

(lines from BetWay)


I'm going to once again reference the cast where we love both SK Gaming and Schalke on the Saturday slate. SK because they tend to whoop on teams that don't play fast and jump out to leads on them (like Splyce). I also think there's a bit of a let down possible after the big win from Splyce yesterday. I LOVE SK for a couple units.

Moneyline: SK Gaming +130 (2-3 units)

Schalke it's mostly just a bet that Misfits aren't that good and shouldn't be favored here. For as bad as Schalke have looked recently (including today... jeez) I still think they can get it done here. After today's abysmal showing I've backed off of this one but still like it for half a unit. This line has also moved to +130

Moneyline: Schalke +130 (0.5 units)

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LCS (North America) Spring 2019 - W7D1+2:

(lines from BetWay)

(lines from BetWay)
(Keep in mind these will likely change after Saturday's games)

I'm going to look at this again tomorrow but in all honesty I'm not going to play anything on this slate except MAYBE Golden Guardians vs CLG if we get some favorable line movement. I like OpTic to beat Echo Fox but not enough to be the -167 on it. I wouldn't fault you for trying C9 against Liquid either because I think that series is closer than the line indicates but I won't be betting it.

NA is really bleh this weke honestly. I like the Sunday slate a little bit more leaning toward FlyQuest (I know...) and maybe Clutch but I'm going to just wait until Saturday night or Sunday morning and do a write up then.

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