The Gold Card Podcast Episode 5
We talk about every game in the major regions and some other things on the podcast. Recorded last night.
iTunes
We talk about every game in the major regions and some other things on the podcast. Recorded last night.
iTunes
---------------------------------------------
LCK Spring 2019 - W9D2:
On the cast last night we went fairly deep on this match and what it boils down to is whether you prefer two superior solo lanes or a superior bottom lane. In the current metagame, it's not entirely about stalling or anything quite like previous season but it is a little more friendly to scaling compositions, something that suits Gen.G very well.
I'm going to be light on the over 2.5 maps played here because unlike my collegues I actually don't think this is going to be a clean Gen.G win. These two teams are similarly disappointing but play in completely opposite ways. They're also both fighting to avoid relegation and KT Rolster could throw a wrench in those plans. This should be a weirdly competitive series and a display of two distinctly different styles.
I like Gen.G to win this series and I find it a little strange that they're slight dogs. The main reason I think Gen.G take this is because I feel Afreeca have struggled to close quickly in a lot of their limited number of wins this season and that's not the kind of game you want to play against Gen.G. In other words Gen.G have one redeeming characteristic and I can totally see Afreeca playing right into it. That said I do think Afreeca's bizarre drafting and strategy will probably throw Gen.G for a loop and they'll take a game. I like getting plus odds on the Over 2.5.
"Gut": Gen.G ML (light or nothing)
Confidence: 1/5 (handicap), 3.5/5 (ML)
Value: 0.5 /1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)
Prop: Over 2.5 maps played @ +105 (1 unit)
I'm going to be light on the over 2.5 maps played here because unlike my collegues I actually don't think this is going to be a clean Gen.G win. These two teams are similarly disappointing but play in completely opposite ways. They're also both fighting to avoid relegation and KT Rolster could throw a wrench in those plans. This should be a weirdly competitive series and a display of two distinctly different styles.
I like Gen.G to win this series and I find it a little strange that they're slight dogs. The main reason I think Gen.G take this is because I feel Afreeca have struggled to close quickly in a lot of their limited number of wins this season and that's not the kind of game you want to play against Gen.G. In other words Gen.G have one redeeming characteristic and I can totally see Afreeca playing right into it. That said I do think Afreeca's bizarre drafting and strategy will probably throw Gen.G for a loop and they'll take a game. I like getting plus odds on the Over 2.5.
"Gut": Gen.G ML (light or nothing)
Confidence: 1/5 (handicap), 3.5/5 (ML)
Value: 0.5 /1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)
Prop: Over 2.5 maps played @ +105 (1 unit)
It's so tempting to look at this +152 number on Sandbox and take them. They've been so impressive this season but I keep thinking back to that stretch where they struggled in the middle of the season and can't help but think this team is going to have their ups and downs. Sandbox are a fairly linear team. They figure out one thing that works for them on a patch and they stick to it. Sometimes this is good and sometimes this is bad. If they are figured out early in a patch they seem to struggle but that hasn't been the case often this season. I actually think when you look at this game it screams Sandbox ML but after a lot of thought and discussion on the cast I'm actually going with the SKT 2-0.
For as good as Sandbox have looked they are still a one dimensional team and SKT are not. I still think SKT are the second best team in Korea despite their ups and downs this season and I feel pretty strongly that they will go into playoffs as the #2 seed. After andi mpressive sweep of Kingzone SKT dropped a 1-2 slugfest (best series of the year) to Griffin and then dropped games to the weaker KT Rolster and Hanwha Life but both KT and HLE were in must win situations and soundly defeating teams with everything to lose can prove difficult even for the very best. I also can't help but think that SKT were looking ahead to this matchup and will be approaching this with a playoff intensity. The meta is unbelievably good for this team right now with premium picks on this patch as specialities for every player. I also think SKT just outclass Sandbox at every position.
I wouldn't fault you for the Sandbox ML because it looks enticing but I think SKT are going to stomp this.
"Gut": Sandbox ML (light)
Actual Wager: below
Confidence: 3.5/5 (handicap), 4.5/5 (ML)
Value: 1.5 /1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)
Handicapped: SK Telecom -1.5 maps @ +156 (2 units)
For as good as Sandbox have looked they are still a one dimensional team and SKT are not. I still think SKT are the second best team in Korea despite their ups and downs this season and I feel pretty strongly that they will go into playoffs as the #2 seed. After andi mpressive sweep of Kingzone SKT dropped a 1-2 slugfest (best series of the year) to Griffin and then dropped games to the weaker KT Rolster and Hanwha Life but both KT and HLE were in must win situations and soundly defeating teams with everything to lose can prove difficult even for the very best. I also can't help but think that SKT were looking ahead to this matchup and will be approaching this with a playoff intensity. The meta is unbelievably good for this team right now with premium picks on this patch as specialities for every player. I also think SKT just outclass Sandbox at every position.
I wouldn't fault you for the Sandbox ML because it looks enticing but I think SKT are going to stomp this.
"Gut": Sandbox ML (light)
Actual Wager: below
Confidence: 3.5/5 (handicap), 4.5/5 (ML)
Value: 1.5 /1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)
Handicapped: SK Telecom -1.5 maps @ +156 (2 units)
---------------------------------------------
LPL Spring 2019 - W9D4:
John made LGD his pick of the week on the podcast last night and while I might not be as heavy on this game as he is I do agree with the premise. LGD have looked, perhaps, like they don't belong in the bottom tier of LPL teams as they've been challenging the mid tier teams but they also lost to Vici so it's pretty tough to get a feel for this squad. I look at the individual players and feel that not only are they good (except Condi who I'm lower on than most people) , but that this should be a favorable meta for them. SinoDragon have also been a bit up and down this season with spike wins against TopSports, FunPlus, and BiliBili but also struggle against JD, Vici, and some surprisingly close games against OMG. SDG are a team I pinned to be a new player in the LPL but after watching this team I feel similarly to my cohosts, this team just doesn't have it. They are like the diet version of the store version of FunPlus Phoenix. One dimensional, figured out, and reliant on outplays but unlike FunPlus, they don't know what to do with a lead or how to generate advantages. They're just a battering ram.
Basically what I'm saying is that I actually think these two teams are a lot closer than both the standings and odds show you. I wouldn't quite say this is a trending up plus trending down situation because I'm not sure LGD are what you'd call "trending up" but I do think SinoDragon have lost a bit of respect from me. This team just isn't quite as good as I thought they were and quite frankly they aren't -227 better than anybody which is the primary motivation for my bet on LGD. This is a value bet. There isn't really a reason LGD should be this big of an underdog against an underwhelming, inconsistent, and one dimensional team. I also think that LGD could potentially rumble and tumble with SinoDragon at their own game to a good enough level to actually win straight up in that way. Love the value we're getting with LGD here. I actually don't hate the exact LGD 2-0 @ + 386 OR the over 2.5 as wagers either but I'm going to stick to the ML and a light prop wager.
"Gut": LGD ML (light to moderate)
Confidence: 1/5 (handicap), 3.5/5 (ML)
Value: 0 /1.5 (handicap), 1.5/1.5 (ML)
Moneyline: LGD Gaming +166 (2 units)
Prop: Exact LGD 2-0 @ +386 (0.5 units)
Basically what I'm saying is that I actually think these two teams are a lot closer than both the standings and odds show you. I wouldn't quite say this is a trending up plus trending down situation because I'm not sure LGD are what you'd call "trending up" but I do think SinoDragon have lost a bit of respect from me. This team just isn't quite as good as I thought they were and quite frankly they aren't -227 better than anybody which is the primary motivation for my bet on LGD. This is a value bet. There isn't really a reason LGD should be this big of an underdog against an underwhelming, inconsistent, and one dimensional team. I also think that LGD could potentially rumble and tumble with SinoDragon at their own game to a good enough level to actually win straight up in that way. Love the value we're getting with LGD here. I actually don't hate the exact LGD 2-0 @ + 386 OR the over 2.5 as wagers either but I'm going to stick to the ML and a light prop wager.
"Gut": LGD ML (light to moderate)
Confidence: 1/5 (handicap), 3.5/5 (ML)
Value: 0 /1.5 (handicap), 1.5/1.5 (ML)
Moneyline: LGD Gaming +166 (2 units)
Prop: Exact LGD 2-0 @ +386 (0.5 units)
I can't believe I'm actually considering betting OMG here but I am. Listen, I think OMG might be the worst team in the LPL but Snake haven't done jack to impress me and quite frankly, OMG at home after an awful season and nothing to lose feels like as good a time as any but in reality this is a similar approach to the last game. Snake are not -222 better than ANYBODY which is almost reason enough to bet the dogs here. I'm going to wait to fire on this one but it's a strong lean to OMG ML. I just need to see if I can actually convince myself to bet on this team.
No wager (STRONG LEAN to OMG ML)
--------------------------------------
I didn't get a chance to talk about it on the cast last night since we ran over but this is the last weekend in the LMS regular season and it's going to reach a peak on Sunday where the #1 and #2 Flash Wolves and MAD Team will meet in what will likely be a showdown for the #1 seed in the final game of the season. First of all sweet scheduling LMS. Second of all I'll be betting Flash Wolves 2-0's until and perhaps in that match. Flash Wolves are the better team and are only behind in the chase for #1 because of a slow start to the season while figuring out their new roster. They're firing on all cylinders now. They might not be quite as dominant as previous iterations of the wolves but this is still the best team in the LMS and we're getting bettable handicaps. The LMS does tiebreakers with first head to head series record followed by head to head single game record, and then if still tied there is an actual tiebreaker game played. MAD Team won the first meeting 2-1 so Flash Wolves could 2-0 MAD on Sunday to steal first place or win 2-1 and force a tiebreak game but I digress.
The point is Flash Wolves need this win and AHQ, like the majority of the LMS is a bad team. AHQ being 4th place currently has absolutely no significance to me because this league is extremely shallow and much weaker than it was years ago. There are two relevant teams maybe three if you are super optimistic about JTeam. I know AHQ came close in the first meeting playing two long games but it was a long time ago and Flash Wolves wasn't quite up to strength yet.. Flash Wolves should wipe the floor here and we're getting a very bettable -143 handicap.
"Gut": Flash Wolves -1.5 maps (heavy)
Confidence: 4.5/5 (handicap), 5/5 (ML)
Value: 1.5 /1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)
Handicapped: Flash Wolves -1.5 maps @ -143 (3.5 units)
No comments:
Post a Comment