Betting: April 3rd (LCK Spring Playoffs Round 1)

LCK Spring 2019 - Playoffs Round 1:

Sandbox won this series 2-1 both times during the regular season and will get side selection for this third three game series however that isn't the side I'll be going with. That's right I'm taking DAMWON. To me there are a few ways you could look at this series. You could say Sandbox own the 4-2 game score on the season and have defeated the original DAMWON lineup as well as with subs the second time. A totally reasonable take and the likely justification for the line placement. You could also say Sandbox have the better metrics which would also be true and with only a few wins separating the two the numbers aren't particularly skewed in either direction. Sandbox have stronger vision scores and better efficiency metrics as well as gold differentials. Hell you could even just lookat the standings and say "hey they're better." All of these are fairly reasonable approximations which is why I think this line is about where I would have put it.

So why am I going with DAMWON if I think this line is accurate? I'll admit this is partially (maybe 50%) gut feeling so let me provide the other half of my reasoning. To me, DAMWON have looked better in their last couple of series and both Sandbox and DAMWON faced a similar strength of schedule to end the season. DAMWON have utterly crushed in almost all of their wins and they've done it with a surprising variety of styles and an extended roster. This kind of roster, when executed well, is a huge bonus in a best of three series. Now I know what you're saying, "Gelati, DAMWON used subs during the last Sandbox series too." This is accurate but that was also shortly after they start experimenting with this roster. They also didn't have nearly a week to prepare for a matchup they could have seen coming. I think DAMWON are going to have something spicy cooked up to throw Sandbox off their game.

Sandbox have only impressed me this season right from day one. They've shown a remarkable level of maturity for a new team and while I think they're a bit one dimensional and sometimes wild, I do think they're a great team. The thing is I think DAMWON's ceiling is just much higher. Combine that with the fact that they've looked incredible recently and you can see why I like DAMWON as an underdog here. In other words I think if both of these teams are operating at 90+% I think DAMWON is  better. I also think they're an incredibly demoralizing team, one that can morally defeat you in game one. The preparation time, the substitutions, and the fact that this is best of three instead of five really make me like DAMWON. I know the match and game records are similar over last few matches but if you watch these teams DAMWON are the scary ones and I think that kind of momentum and confidence means something. 

I was originally going to go big on this but I'm actually going to tone it back to just a few units. Doing the research actually forced me to repsect Sandbox so maybe that's a reason to take them but I'll be on DAMWON here and even after throwing some respect on Sandbox and lowering my wager I still feel DAMWON are the right side here. 

"Gut": DAMWON ML (heavy)

Confidence: 4.0/5 (handicap), 4.0/5 (ML)

Value: 0 /1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)

Moneyline: DAMWON +115 (2 units)

Prop: Exact DAMWON 2-0 @ +263 (0.25 units)