Betting: March 7th (LCK)

Reason #947 why PapaSmithy is a legend.

The Gold Card Podcast is recording tonight so we'll have the episode out to you sometime either late tonight or tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon.

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LCK Spring 2019 - W7D1:

(UPDATE: This line has since moved to DAMWON -135, -1.5 @ +201)

I have no idea why this line is moving toward DAMWON when they have been the better team since the break and they have side selection. Perhaps people are overreacting to dropping a game to Afreeca but have people looked at this team recently? They've won six matches in a row dropping only two games in that span one to Afreeca and one to SK Telecom. I'll admit the Afreeca game loss isn't something to ignore but the SKT one is against a team that I consider the second best team in Korea.

I'll go over this one point for point because not everything is completely in DAMWON's favor statistically.

• Sandbox own the edge in damage per gold: While both teams have shown proficiency playing split push compositions, Sandbox have played them in fewer games meaning their damage numbers are going to be amplified just a tad. This ends up being a wash really.
• Sandbox get first tower more often: 72% vs 50%
• Both teams struggle to get first blood: Sandbox 41% and DAMWON 36%
• Gold Differential: Edge is to Sandbox @ 15 minutes but DAMWON have superior rate (per min) statistics with +170 vs +126. 
• Vision: Sandbox have generally had slightly better vision control with 48.5% of enemy wards cleared and 3.8 wards per minute while DAMWON clear 45% of enemy wards and place 3.9 wards per minute. Notably Sandbox place 1.8 vision wards per minute to the 1.4 of DAMWON and both have similar wards cleared per minute numbers at 1.9 for Sandbox and 1.8 for DAMWON.
• Last six matches (since break): Sandbox are 4-2 with match losses to Afreeca 1-2 and Kingzone 0-2. DAMWON are 6-0 with only two game losses to Afreeca and SK Telecom
• DAMWON have side selection
• Sandbox don't use subs (yet): Sandbox haven't started any other players besides their original five since joining the league. Continuity is a strong factor but DAMWON's subs AND starters have both performed excellently.
• Next opponent: Sandbox have a showdown with Griffin on Sunday while DAMWON have to face Kingzone on Saturday.

With so many of the statistical edges in Sandbox's favor how can I possibly be so heavy on DAMWON? This is a wager based more in film review than in statistics. DAMWON have looked damn near unstoppable since returning from the holiday break. They've done everything besides beat Griffin, who they haven't played yet. None of the substitutions have made this team even miss a beat. They're winning with split pushing, they're winning with deathball compositions, they're running circles around other teams in the drafts and they're executing at an extremely high level with the exception of that Afreeca game loss. Sandbox haven't looked bad but they haven't shown any sort of progress to me. They've branched out a little with Summit showing some split pushing chops but Sandbox have more or less shown us what they have. They're brute force while DAMWON is more finesse with the ability to also brute force.

To me DAMWON are the more well-rounded team AND they're honestly better at what Sandbox does than Sandbox. I think people are high on Sandbox because of how they started so we're getting a little bit of what I like to call price memory here and people see that Sandbox are an underdog and take them. DAMWON is the right side in this matchup. The statistics won't back this up nearly as strongly as my RNG take yesterday but again this isn't a tale of the tape as much as it is a tale of the game film. DAMWON are going to finish in 3rd or 4th and possibly even 2nd. I think in an LCK where Griffin are a full tier above even the next best teams that SKT, DAMWON, and Kingzone are in their own tier (maybe SKT in their own tier above) and Sandbox are a half to full tier lower than DAMWON and Kingzone. They just lack the versatility and individual players compared to these other teams. I do think Sandbox will be a playoff team but that they're a cut below these top four teams and this is a spot to jump on the value when we see it.

It's a tad on the aggressive side without the statistics to support it but I'm firing heavy on DAMWON tonight. I think a lot more is working in their favor than Sandbox. The subs have seem to only bolster this DAMWON team and preparing for more people without side selection can be a nightmare. I also think DAMWON are just the better team through and through regardless of the starting lineup. They have better individual players and have looked stronger recently. 

Moneyline: DAMWON -135 (5 units)

Handicapped: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ +201 (1 unit)

(UPDATE: This has been taken off of my book as well as at least one other.)

Afreeca might slowly be taking a step forward finally and Jin Air are just awful. With how inconsistent Afreeca have been this year I could see why you'd want to fire on Jin Air but they might just be the worst team in any of the major regions. I'm going to throw the handicap in a few parlays if it comes back up at this number again but other than that I'm staying away from this. It's too rich for a team that's been too inconsistent and even with Jin Air being as bad as they are I'm skeptical to call this a "shoebox" or "free money" bet.

No wager