Betting: March 6th (LPL)

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LPL Spring 2019 - W7D3:

(Update: This has since fallen to FPP -120 / RNG -110)

This is an interesting match for a number of reasons. You could make the argument that these are the two best teams in the LPL, one is just kicking into gear and one just had a huge win over Invictus including a 22 minute victory in game two. Not many teams can say that. FunPlus are the real deal there's no doubt about that but I also think people are underrating RNG's slow start. RNG do this every year and it takes until about this time that people are reminded "Oh yea... that Uzi guy" or something similar.

This is a tough match to cap but we're going heavy on RNG despite losing some line value since yesterday. I have a number of reasons both statistically and from a narative driven viewpoint to love RNG here:

• RNG are underrated because of their slow start: it happens every single season and this team has looked unreal besides two games against a great TopSports team.
• FunPlus are coming off of an emotional/all-in effort against Invictus: a lot of times in both esports and traditional sports you see a lacklust effort in the following match because a team spent a lot of time preparing to beat the kings. You could argue against this point because of a few days off but it's worth considering.
• RNG have superior damage per gold numbers: even with a worse record and Uzi not playing for the first two matches RNG have superior damage per gold numbers as a team. A statistic I put a lot of weight on because I feel it's a strictly better measure of carry efficiency than basic damage per minute.
• RNG have better vision control: 3.8 wards per minute as well as a 46.5% of wards cleared against FPP's 3.5 wards per minute and 42.6% cleared. For comparison Invictus has struggled in this department with only 36. 9%, EDG who have looked good have 47%, and the surging BiliBili lead the league with over 50% coincidence? I think not.
• FunPlus have yet to face a team with vision control scores in the top half of the LPL: It's impressive that they took down Invictus but FunPlus have also faced the easiest schedule in the LPLin terms of vision score.
• FunPlus have had the easiest schedule in the LPL: Their "good" wins include Invictus and that's it... if you want to include Suning (who they dropped a game to) I'd call you crazy with how bad that teams looks but feel free. Same with JDG.
• FunPlus have yet to face a jungler the quality of Karsa: You could include Ning if you'd like but nobody else is remotely close.
• FunPlus win through their carries and RNG's are just better: This comes back to the strength of schedule argument but FPP have been winning through superior carry play in every lane and they won't be able to do that against RNG who, I feel, outclass them in every single lane.
•  (uPDATE: no patch 9.4 tonight but it was icing on the cake anyway for me, still 5u)
• Royal Never Give Up have side selection and home stadium

This is a classic New England Patriots vs the hot new team at home scenario that we've seen time and time again. Everyone wants RNG/New England to lose, everyone talks with their money, and they look for any reason to do so. RNG haven't looked 100% themselves but you can bet they'll be up for this match. They're going to be loving the opportunity to smash this team back down to reality at least for one match. Again, I think FunPlus are the real deal and they're one of the best teams in the LPL but this is a match, especially coming off the win against IG that I just think RNG are going to reality check them in.

Moneyline: Royal Never Give Up -110 (5 units)

Prop: RNG exact 2-0 @ +221 (0.5 units)

Once again, I love Victory Five and this team is going to make us a lot of money next week after people write them off after this loss but this isn't the time or place even with Invictus coming off the loss. If you want to gamble feel free to bet the exact Invictus 2-1 @ +292 becuase I don't think that's a particularly bad number given the likelihood of that outcome but I'm staying away from this game outside of including the IG -1.5 in a parlay or two. Love V5 but especially coming off a loss I'd expect IG to just rage stomp this match.

No wager