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LCK Spring 2019 - W8D3:
These odds plus all the upsets this week makes Afreeca kind of tempting but I'm not touching this game. Especially with Griffin coming off that loss they oughta be Tom Brady "FU" mode. IF the under was availible I'd smash it.
"Gut": No wager
Confidence: 5/5 (handicap), 6/5 (ML)
Value: 0/1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)
(Update: This line has moved to -323/-1.5 @ +106. ith the updated line we're actually getting some value now so)
We went back and forth on the pod about this game and how it's totally reasonable to expect KT to maybe take one. The thing to consider is that the longer the season goes the more improved the bad teams can get but there's also the angle of good teams not needing the wins. The main thing we talked about was that Sandbox have a lot at stake in this game because they're potentially playing for 2nd place as well as 3rd and in the LCK where a higher placement literally earns you a playoff bye it becomes increasingly important to place well. Sandbox are also a young team and unlike a veteran squad like SKT who might rather just get into the playoffs and not reveal anything, Sandbox would rather just get in. They're also a tad more one dimensional than the other four top Korean teams so I'd expect they just want higher placement and will be looking to 2-0 specifically here. Game score differential matters in Korea folks! This line is just about right to me and while it isn't sexy I like the Sandbox 2-0.
"Gut": Sandbox -1.5 @ -111 (moderate)
Confidence: 3.5/5 (handicap), 4.5/5 (ML)
Value: 0.5/1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)
Handicapped: Sandbox -1.5 maps @ +106 (3 units)
I know people are going to be tempted to take Hanwha Life here since they made a series against DAMWON but if you watched those games, and followed my particularly active and frustrated Twitter feed this morning, you'd know that DAMWON severely punted a more or less game ending second infernal drake with yet another in a long series of "we're dominating, let's do something incredibly stupid" plays with that Ryze Realm Warp. Hanwha are now, more or less, eliminated and it wasn't going to be pretty because DAMWON should have 2-0'd them. They're not a bad team but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them call it a season and start their subs against an SKT team that's in a battle for the #2 seed. SKT should take care of business here. I know they've looked just a tad shakey and there is a chance the veterans want to cruise into playoffs not showing anything but the demoralized HLE vs motivated SKT and SKT getting side selection should make this a slam dunk -1.5.
"Gut": SKT -1.5 @ -125 (moderate to heavy)
Confidence: 4/5 (handicap), 5/5 (ML)
Value: 0.5/1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)
Handicapped: SK Telecom -1.5 maps @ -125 (4 units)
As mentioned on the podcast this is my pick of the week. Gen.G are coming into this exceedingly overrated because of their win against Griffin. I don't want to call it a flukey win but Griffin were utterly smashing game one and punted one fight that allowed Gen.G to buy enough time to get Vayne big. Game two they were fully disrespectful and ran the same comp back against one they struggled with and similarly to game one it just took one weird fight and Gen.G turned that into the win. In other words Griffin were stubborn and this made things a lot easier on Gen.G. It's impressive beating Griffin, no doubt, but don't be fooled by this Gen.G team. They're still playing to avoid relegation but I could just as easily see this team stop caring. They have a history of not showing up in clutch situations just as often as they've been "clutch" but a lot of people choose to ignore that. That attitude and arrogance this team has for how bad they are has always been a unique (we'll be nice) characteristic.
Kingzone are no longer battling for their playoff lives as badly with the Hanwha loss but they could actually still not make it. They need this game and they need a 2-0 in order to stay competitive for the #3 and #4 seeds and potentially more. They're going to be highly motivated to smash Gen.G. They also have side selection and have consistantly dismantled teams we have ranked below them with the exception of Hanwha early in the season. Kingzone, for my money, are the #3 team in the LCK without a bad performance here. They're two full tiers better than Gen.G and I'll reiterate that their win vs Griffin was more Griffin losing than Gen.G doing anything inparticular to win and you need to know that.
"Gut": Kingzone -1.5 @ +101 (heavy)
Confidence: 4.5/5 (handicap), 5/5 (ML)
Value: 1.0/1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)
Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 @ +101 (5 units, PICK OF THE WEEK!)
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LPL Spring 2019 - W8D5:
I was going to be moderate on Victory Five and then Kalvin talked me off the ledge on the cast this week. Victory Five actually haven't beaten anybody. I've been a bit blinded by my ambition for this team. They've been three of my seven 5+ unit picks this season and while I still agree with those spots they haven't beaten any good teams this year. Is Team WE a good team? I absolutely don't think so while Kalvin seems to have them a tier above me. We had a really long debate on the podcast about LPL tiers so I'd encourage you to check that out. I originally was going to fire fairly heavily on this but I'm actually going to just abstain. If Victory Five end up smashing this I won't feel too bad about it. Team WE are in as good a spot in the metagame as they're going to be and while I'm not sold on this team and think V5 are a tier better I'm becoming skeptical.
"Gut": Victory Five -1.5 @ +173 (moderate)
Confidence: 2.5/5 (handicap), 3/5 (ML)
Value: 1.0/1.5 (handicap), 0.5/1.5 (ML)
No wager
I'm going to basically skip over these heavy favorite games. You could make the argument that Rogue Warriors could ride the momentum of their ridiculous upset win with a brand new support but I'll call it a little beginners luck. I'm not touching this the lines are too outrageous and I'd actually advise against RW even taking a game unless you really feel strongly about momentum.
"Gut": No wager
Confidence: 5/5 (handicap), 6/5 (ML)
Value: 0/1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)
No wager
(Updated line is -217/+158 so we've lost some value here)
This was John's pick of the week on the cast this week and I couldn't agree more. Suning are tremendously underrated here and even with the lost value I love this pick. For as disappointed as we've all been in Suning this season the truth is this team is still potentially in the playoff hunt somehow and they're slowly but surely putting it all together. Coming into the season almost everyone I know was extremely high on this team, myself included, and it looks like while they may be late to the party that they're trending in the right direction. JDG on the other hand have had more flukey and unrepeatable wins than I care to count. We go over this on the cast and Chris made the good point that this team has stumbled into more wins than anybody. That said they have still outperformed most of my preseason evaluations of them which makes them a strange team to bet. I think they've overperformed expectation which makes me optimistic but they're also still a tremendously overrated team.
As you all know I typically don't buy into the "they just get the job done" or "they're just clutch" arguments and that applies to JDG. This team has been pulling wins out of their ass or having wins spoon fed to them and while I think they belong in this tier along with Suning they shouldn't be favored by this much against anyone. JD are due for some regression and Suning are trending in the right direction and will have side selection here. I also think Suning have stronger individual players at every position and while that hasn't delivered this season as much as we thought you can bet I'd rather that than JDG's weird chain of wins.
These teams should be evenly rated and they certainly aren't here. Even with the 100 points we've lost since earlier this week on the moneyline I absolutely love Suning here and we're still a tremendous value. I'd put this line at JDG -140ish because they're a bit less of an unknown and their track record says they should be favored here. This line is obscene and should be no lower than that -140 mark and instead we get -217... ridiculous.
"Gut": Suning ML (heavy)
Confidence: 3.0/5 (handicap), 4/5 (ML)
Value: 1.5 (still)/1.5 (handicap), 1.5 (still after updated line)/1.5 (ML)
Moneyline: Suning Gaming +158 (4 units)
Prop: Exact Suning 2-0 @ +363 (0.5 units)
LPL Spring 2019 - W8D6:
I kind of like OMG here. They've faced a significantly tougher schedule and to me both of these teams should be very close to even. LGD I'd say are a better team but not by much and when you have two of the bottom tier teams duking it out you tend to just take the underdog unless there is an excellent reason not to. This should be LGD -120 or -140 at worst. We're getting some value with OMG here so it's just a matter of how confident you are betting bad teams. I'll be a unit on OMG. I think the patch is potentially great for Chelly and Five and they also get side selection and homefield. That said this is once again two bad teams so I'll be keeping it light. You can also do the John George special and take one or both of these teams to 2-0. Typically when two bad teams face each other one shows up that day and one doesn't and it's really easy to paint scenarios where one 2-0's without any surprise. I'll actually be betting the OMG moneyline and both exact 2-0s/-1.5's here. This is going to look weird but the odds are great for how likely I believe it is that we get a 2-0 either way.
"Gut": OMG ML (light)
Confidence: 2.5/5 (handicap), 3/5 (ML)
Value: 1.5 /1.5 (handicap), 1.5 /1.5 (ML)
Moneyline: OMG +119 (1.5 units)
Prop: Exact OMG 2-0 @ +294 (0.5 units)
Handicapped: LGD -1.5 @ +173 (0.25 units)
For as good as BiliBili have been, and man they've been good, I can't help but believe this is a spot, especially with RNG coming off an embarassing loss to Rogue Warriors, that RNG just piledrive BBG back to reality. I'm in no way saying BBG are a bad team I just think they're still about half a tier worse than the top five LPL teams and with RNG needing this win AND coming off a bad loss AND being better I just think they're going to smash here. We get very limited value and I would have liked to see plus odds on the handicap but we didn't get it. Despite the lack of value I still like the RNG -1.5 for a couple units here. They're just a better team and people are going to be off them after that loss and on BBG since they've been surging recently.
"Gut": RNG -1.5 (light)
Confidence: 3.5/5 (handicap), 4.5/5 (ML)
Value: 0/1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)
Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ -120 (2 units)
It breaks my heart to say it but SinoDragon appear like they just might not be as good as I thought they were. I still think they're way better than the bottom tier teams but they might not be as high up on the next tier as I thought. This team has had a lot of suspect decision making and they've punted enough drafts this season to make me less confident in them moving forward. As I mentioned I still think they're good but I'm just a lot less confident in them. That said we're getting some outrageous line value here if you ask me because FunPlus are in a really weird place. If you watched EDG punt away their 2-0 this morning then you're not surprised but if you just checked the scores when you woke up and saw FPP 2-1'd you wouldn't be that surprised. I was heavy on EDG yesterday and had a close eye on this series. It was infuriating. EDG had this 2-0 in the bag before two major punts but I digress.
The reason this is relevant is because I think, so a certain degree, that FunPlus have been figured out by the rest of the league. If you can shut down DoinB they don't really function as a team anymore. Now that's easier said than done but three series in a row now it's appeared that they don't have a solution other than to just decisively fight (which, coincidentally works in the LPL lol). It's not a nuanced solution. So the question becomes are SinoDragon good enough to punish FunPlus. EDG, TopSports, and RNG were but they're elite teams. SinoDragon at the very least are an extremely decisive team and that will favor them against a team that plays the way FunPlus do. In some ways I think this is a stylistic match of two identical teams except one has better players and leadership.
I'm going to bet that SinoDragon can actually follow the lead of other good teams and take DoinB away. It looks mad because I just talked about how I've downgraded my confidence in SinoDragon but they excel at the kind of League of Legends that FunPlus like to play and that, combined with side selection and the "FunPlus are solved" angle gives me enough confidence to take the +1.5 for a moderate amount here. We're also getting a lot of value in the ML so I'm going to take a long shot on that too.
"Gut": SinoDragon ML (light) and +1.5 (moderate)
Confidence: 3.5/5 (handicap), 2/5 (ML)
Value: 1.0/1.5 (handicap), 1.5/1.5 (ML)
Moneyline: SinoDragon +384 (0.5 units)
Handicapped: SinoDragon +1.5 maps @ +109 (3 units)
Prop: Exact FunPlus 2-1 @ +236 (0.25 units)
Prop: Exact SinoDragon 2-0 @ +896 (0.1 units)
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LMS Spring 2019 - W7D3:
The LMS has sorted itself out a bit. Flash Wolves are on top in a league of their own, MAD Team are mostly in their own tier below them and J Team are trending up but appear to be kind of like TSM and clearly the #3 team in the region. From there it's mostly a crap shoot with the exception of Alph and Dragon Gate being a cut below the rest despite the huge upset win by Alpha yesterday (that we wagered on by the way!).
I like Flash Wolves -1.5 against pretty much anybody besides MAD at this point in the season and the books just haven't adjusted for that yet. They're clearly the top team in the LMS in my eyes and have separated themselves a bit from MAD Team even so to get -147 is a value. Now you should know that G-Rex actually beat Flash Wolves 2-1 the last time these two teams faced but it was four series ago and Flash Wolves actually haven't lost since. While Flash Wolves have faced three bad teams in that span they also 2-0'd J Team, who are better than G-Rex to me. It wasn't two blowouts as J Team were competitive in game two but the first game was an utter smashing by Flash Wolves. It took a little bit and while they aren't as dominant as past seasons Flash Wolves are the premier team in the LMS by a good margain. We're not going to see lines this good the rest of the season. It's only a matter of time before the books adjust.
"Gut": Flash Wolves -1.5 maps (moderate)
Confidence: 4/5 (handicap), 5/5 (ML)
Value: 0.5/1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)
Handicapped: Flash Wolves -1.5 maps @ -147 (3 units)
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LEC (Europe) Spring 2019 - W9D2:
With the Vitality upset loss to Excel yesterday it makes a lot of the scenarios I had that made me feel good about the Saturday slate got thrown a little out of whack. I liked SK Gaming against Vitality if Vitality clinched but they didn't and now this slate looks rather chalky to me with next to no value unless you like Misfits against G2. A bit unfortunate but hey what are you going to do. I also like Rogue just a bit and Splyce against Fnatic a bit as much as I hate to admit it but not enough to fire on anything.
No wagers
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North American LCS Spring 2019 - W8D1:
As much as I can't stand CLG and think they're terrible they're a team that plays similarly to OpTic and they're a heavy dog here. I think the correct bet is CLG but I'm going to abstain but the value is there. The only other bet I like tomorrow is Golden Guardians +219. TSM are pretty clearly better but TSM also have very little to play for in the standings other than locking up their 3rd seed or praying for C9 and TL to stop caring long enough to let them sneak into 2nd which is extremely unlikely. GG absolutely need this win though. +219 seems right on any other week but not this week and not in this situation.
Moneyline: Golden Guardians +219 (1 unit)
North American LCS Spring 2019 - W8D2:
Will depend largely on Saturday will try to update late Saturday night or Sunday morning but I'll likely be fading C9 and TL who will have nothing to play for because the difference between #1 and #2 doesn't matter that much in NA.
(pending)
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