Betting: March 28th (LCK, LMS)

LCK Spring 2019 - W10D1:

There might actually be something to the Jin Air +1.5 @ +271 here if SKT didn't actually need this to maintain their hold on the #2 seed. With a 2-0 here SKT would insulate themselves from Kingzone who would then need to 2-0 Griffin and hope SKT lose to Afreeca in order to take over the #2 spot. Not likely to happen but SKT could basically take care of business here and then not show anything against Afreeca or start subs because they'd have #2 locked up. Griffin already have #1 locked so SKT can't catch them.

There isn't really much more of an angle to this one. I guess you could say SKT might not care THAT much about the 2-0 because as long as they win their next two they're fine but I think even a lazy SKT is going to roflstomp this Jin Air squad. I'll almost never fault anyone for taking +1.5 @ +271... that's a ludacris number but I'm not touching this game.

No wager

This matchup is a bit more complex because there are a lot of angles and storylines at work here. DAMWON are locked into the #5 seed. They can't catch Sandbox and have too big a lead over Hanwha to lose their playoff spot in any scenario. So DAMWON have nothing to play for here besides momentum and pride but keep in mind that some of the subs who have seen a lot of time this season like Flame could be playing for either future jobs elsewhere or making a case to start in the second half. This is why I love extended rosters, because the subs don't check out in situations like this and you avoid, to some extent, player fatigue. 

Gen.G on the other hand are still technically battling to avoid having to play for relegation. Hanwha are locked in #6 while Gen.G, Afreeca, and KT Rolster are all currently battling to avoid the #9 spot. The current standings are as follows:

(compliments of Leaguepedia)

Gen.G have an extra series to play but have superior differential. With a win here they don't actually avoid relegation because theoretically Afreeca and KT could win out. KT plays against Hanwha and DAMWON, two teams that have nothing to play for but pride/momentum. Afreeca play SK Telecom who, if they 2-0 the first game tomorrow, will have nothing to play for either later this week. The point I'm making is that Gen.G don't just get to rest on their superior game differential because their actual series record is too close to their competition.

Now all of this might not mean anything to some people. You could just simplify things and say "this team is better than that team." I actually tend to side more with that because historically most teams DO NOT just mail it in. Nobody likes ending on a weird note. Most teams will go out and play a real series even if it's with subs. They might not be 100% all in try harding but I think the "nothing to play for" narrative gets a little overrated by some. I think it's important to know about but shouldn't weigh much more than a tiebreaker when making a decision about these picks. 

If you look strictly at situation then Gen.G is the correct side here and this looks like a good value but to me DAMWON aren't a veteran team and will potentially be playing subs that want to fight for a starting job next split. Gen.G didn't look particularly great against Afreeca who have been an absolute mess, as a matter of fact that series was an absolute clown fiesta despite the 2-0 score. 

It's counterintuitive because I think Gen.G are well-suited for this metagame but I'm going with the DAMWON 2-0 here because I think the value is actually in that selection and not the Gen.G +1.5. I honeslty figured we'd get better odds on this game and we didn't. It'd be easy to say DAMWON mail it in for this series but with new teams especially we rarely see that and I don't think Gen.G is as good as the "they've improved!" hype that's been following them the past few weeks. Much like early season JDG this team has lucked into a lot of wins this season or had wins handed to them, they rarely create on their own.

"Gut": Gen.G +1.5 (light) (INITIAL REACTION)

Confidence: 3.0/5 (handicap), 2.0/5 (ML)

Value: 0 /1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ +133 (2 units)

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LMS Spring 2019 - W9D2:

I'm going to wait to see the line movement on this AHQ/DGT game but just a few details about the final week in the LMS. Currently MAD and Flash Wolves are battling for #1 and unless Flash Wolves somehow go 0-2 this week AHQ isn't able to catch them at #2. The rest of the field #3-#7 are all battling for the 3rd and 4th playoff seeds. AHQ, JTeam, G-Rex, Hong Kong Attitude, and somehow Alpha are fighting for playoff spots. With a win against the abysmal Dragon Gate Team AHQ could all but lock up the #3 spot by taking a commanding two series lead over JTeam who has to face Flash Wolves later this week. I have hated AHQ this year because they've roasted me a few times but they've been steadily improving as the season goes on. That said, the LMS is a little like NA where the top two teams are a cut better than the rest and the rest is a crap shoot besides #3 AHQ. Earlier this year I thought that might be JTeam and it still might be but we might have two teams in that next tier above the rest of the league.

Anyway all of this is to say I actually like AHQ to 2-0 DGT. Dragon Gate are really really bad and while I hit on an upset pick on them earlier this year I'd expect AHQ to take care of business here especially because Dragon Gate embarassed them by winning 2-1 earlier this season. AHQ are going to retailiate and they are the better team by a good margain. That said this is the LMS and the bottom six teams aren't that far apart, they're all mediocre at best. I wouldn't fault you for avoiding this because DGT have shown the ability to upset "good" teams this split with game wins against AHQ, G-Rex, and MAD Team. I think we're getting good enough value at -159. 61.4% implied odds of the 2-0 I actually think its a little less than where I'd put this (around 70%). I'll take a couple units on the sweep for that especially given the revenge narrative. Embarassment can be a powerful motivator.

 "Gut": AHQ -1.5 (light)

Confidence: 4.0/5 (handicap), 5/5 (ML)

Value: 0.5 /1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: AHQ -1.5 maps @ -159 (2 units)