Betting: March 11th + 12th (LPL)

LPL Spring 2019 - W8D1:

So I had a lot on the JD vs SDG series this weekened but after watching those games I've learned a few things. SinoDragon aren't quite as polished as I thought they were. I'm not too concerned moving forward but I do have to bring them down a tick. That said, I feel very strongly that both of those games were lost in the draft before the game even started. I like the Gangplank pick, especially against Kindred, but not against comps that can dive or other carry tops. It's just a disaster waiting to happen. Props to JDG for punishing but I still feel SDG belong in this tier they just have some things to work on.

With that in mind we look at JDG who appear to be hitting a stride vs Vici who have struggled this season. Vici have had a few moments, noteably against mid table teams similar to JDG. They took games off of Victory 5, a 2-1 win over SinoDragon, and in their first two matches of the season took games off of Suning and Edward so this team isn't completely incapable of stealing games. The highlight of the team has been Puff and Southwind but as we see with the very similarly rated Rogue Warriors, a great bottom lane isn't going to help as much if the top side of hte map can't do their job up to a certain level. 

We just saw BiliBili demolish this Vici team playing a style that BBG don't really play which makes me think that not only is there no respect for Vici, but that JDG a team with a strong top side and, I hate to say it, a recently strong bottom lane should be able to take care of business here. There is some debate for Vici having side selection AND having an extra day of preparation over JDG AND the fact that they've stolen games and matches against similarly rated teams but I'm going to roll with the JDG handicap. I got this line when it was -133, it's since moved up to -152.

Handicapped: JD Gaming -1.5 maps @ -133 (2 units)

This match is surprisingly similar and the lines indicate that except that I feel EDG are a better team than JD right now even with their poor performance last match. EDG have announced their lineup will be Hope at ADC and Mole, former BiliBili mid laner, in the top lane. This would typically scare a lot of people off of this match but I'm actually going to zig when everyone is zagging here. 

Even with OMG having side selection I'm going to stick with EDG to 2-0 here. There are a few counterarguments which include the substitutions, Icon actually being a good enough individual player to hang with Scout, and the Five and Chelly bottom lane not being that bad as well as side selection but to me none of these factors overwhelm what I'm considering to be a grossly inaccurate line here. I could see taking OMG here for value but to me, this jungle matchup is incredibly lopsided toward ClearLove and this is an overreaction to one bad series. Ale is also one of, if not the worst top laners in the LPL this season. I actually think Mole, who was decent on BBG last year albeit in a different position, could probably hold his own.

This is a tad aggressive but ClearLove had a rare bad series against LGD and I simply can't see him doing anything except bounce back here. If you're skeptical and want to hedge a little you could put a unit on the exact EDG 2-1 @ +246 to make your money back plus some if you feel more strongly about that outcome.

Handicapped: EDG -1.5 @ -133 (3 units)

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LPL Spring 2019 - W8D2:

I've talked a lot about both of these teams both here and on the podcast this season. Team WE are simply not as good as their record shows. They might be better than the true bottom of the barrel, something I would have disagreed with you on a few weeks ago but this is still a really bad team with awful fundamentals. They have no direction when they play whatsoever it's just solo queue. BiliBili have been intriguing. They remind me a lot of Gen.G last year and 2017 and while you might think that gives me nightmares it's mostly the good parts. This team is incredibly disciplined and their macro has been outstanding. It's like they've figured out how to take the old Korean style and port it into today's metagame. With this patch trending even more in that direction the more we see it I actually think BiliBili are the best of the non-elite teams in the LPL. We talked about it on the podcast this week and we universally agreed that BiliBili is the 6th best team in the entire league with a pretty clear gap between the top five and the rest of the field. 

BiliBili should smash this match and we're getting really good odds. The only doubt I have is that my initial read on BiliBili was not this strong and I've been predicting regression for awhile now. I'm not so sure that's going to happen with the metagame trending in the direction it is. BiliBili appear to be here to stay.

I'm starting to be a little paranoid about the fact that I've now taken three separate 2-0 predictions with none of them having side selection but consider it planting my flag. These teams are simply much better than their opponents and I'm not going to let a few upset wins earlier in the season intimidate me. I also don't think there are the stylistic mismatches in these series to justify taking an underdog otherwise I would. A lot of times predicting underdog upsets is about knowing stylistic tendencies or player mismatches and I just don't see any here in any of these games. It's also an added bonus that the perenially underrated Kuro is once against, quietly having an absolutely ridiculous season. 7.8 KDA in 20 games across eight different champions and against some of the best mid laners on the planet in the LPL. Shhhh don't tell anybody!

Handicapped: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ -115 (3 units)

I really can't figure this Suning team out but much like Afreeca I can't help but think they'll at least take a step forward the longer the season goes. With players of this caliber it's simply a matter of time but the question is when does that start happening. Is is this week against current league leaders TopSports?

TopSports are interesting to me because I'm not entirely sure this team will end the season on top of the other elite teams in the LPL but I do think they clearly belong in the conversation. Knight picked up right where he left off last year and Loken is on another level right now. The dude looks like Uzi. 

Suning just got defeated by BiliBili and have struggled with OMG and LGD so this looks like it should just be a slam dunk right? You're absolutely right.  It might be blasphemous to say but I can't help but feel a little weird about this one. This has a lot to do with my respect for the incredibly gifted individual players on Suning and some faith that they'll continue to improve. TopSports have been winning largely because they have better carry players than the teams they've faced with the exception of maybe RNG and Invictus but the Invictus win was on week one. Other than those two matchs and a series against SinoDragon, which they lost by the way, this team hasn't really faced many difficult teams unless you want to put Victory Five and JDG in that conversation. 

Is Suning a good team? I don't know, they should be. I think TopSports is the right side here because the value we're getting for a top seed is actually bonkers considering how awful Suning have looked but I'm going to temper my aggression a bit here and actually keep this to a 2-3 unit wager instead of slamming it like I'm half tempted to do. I just have a strange feeling about this one and I tend to trust that more than a lot of cappers do. Feel free to be more aggressive than I am here I wouldn't fault you.

Handicapped: TopSports -1.5 maps @ -120 (2 units)

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It feels weird having the quadruple -1.5 where none of them have side selection and I'll likely get burned on at least one of these but I'm going to put a bunch of 2-3 team parlays on these matches as well as all 4.