Betting: March 15th (LCK, LPL, LMS, LEC)

Well we got lucky the lines got too outrageous yesterday I suppose because I was definitley going to fire on a few things. What a weird week. Massive MASSIVE upsets all around but we carry on. While I've been looking at my process and perhaps biases and trying to see what I can do differently this season it was more to do with the entire season as whole than this individual week but you could call it the icing on the cake. I crunched a ton of numbers yesterday and it really has been a wild season for variance and while I could go into a long post about how I should have expected some more of this for Season 9 based on pre-season patches and last years end of year I might just save that for a podcast topic and we'll just dive into the picks.

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LCK Spring 2019 - W8D2:

So the way this week has been going you'd think Jin Air here especially because of their upset over the Afreeca Freecs. I wouldn't blame you, it'd be real easy to fall into that underdogs are rolling mentality but I'm not sure if you all noticed but this Jin Air team is.... well just read the opening sentence here. "Upset win over the Afreeca Freecs" says it all to me. Let's not forget that this team had literally one game win until March 7th and they immediately got beaten by HLE days later so the momentum argument isn't applicable here.

 I'm not touching this game and it's not just because of all the upsets to big favorites happening this week but it's mostly that the line is out of range for me. If this somehow came down to like -175 before game time I'd take it.

"Gut": Kingzone -1.5 @ -250 or better

Confidence: 5/5 (handicap), 5/5 (ML)

Value: 0/1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)

No wager

These two met a few weeks ago and after a close game one DAMWON proceeded to lay a biblical beatdown on the HLE squad in a 22 minute near flawless victory. Does that mean history repeats itself? Not necessarily although I must admit that's my first inclining here. Truthfully DAMWON have been strange lately. They've had an impressive series against SKT which was an absolute slobberknocker that I'd highly recommend by the way but they've also punted games to Afreeca and struggled against a Sandbox team that I'd rate similarly to themselves. Not that the Sandbox series was a blowout nor that I'm overreacting to a couple of shakey matches but there's not that ironclad sense of confidence in DAMWON right now even though I have them rated in a tier with Kingzone and, now, SK Telecom behind Griffin but ahead of Sandbox.

Both teams are currently neck and neck in the standings with HLE having an extra series to play. Both play Griffin in one of their last games as well so this is must win territory for both squads. If we assume these teams both finish 2-1 (or 2-2) which I feel is reasonable they'd both end the season with at least 10 wins. Another wrinkle to this is that Kingzone are ALSO 8-5 and tied with Hanwha Life but lead in game differential. To me one of these three is not like the other and it's Hanwha who I have as the clear cut #6 team in the LCK but how does this affect our betting of this series.

I think Hanwha actually looked surprisingly slow against Jin Air on Saturday and while they were relatively clean in game one they got sloppy in game two. I also think their roster shuffling has been far less effective than DAMWON's who has worked out mostly for good. DAMWON are the better team here. We're getting reasonable odds for them only because of side selection and the fact that both are close in the standings. I'm not going to be scared off by the few shaky games DAMWON has played the past couple weeks and while I won't be heavy on this because Hanwha should be up for this series, one team is far better than the other. My one hesitation is that Sangyoon is probably the best professional Kalista player and she's meta right now so that gives Hanwha a potentially big leverage pick in the draft but I'm not going to put too much weight on it.

UPDATE: This line has since moved to DAMWON -156, -1.5 @ +185

"Gut": DAMWON -1.5 @ +177 (moderate) or DAMWON ML (heavy)

Confidence: 3/5 (handicap), 4.5/5 (ML)

Value: 1.5/1.5 (handicap), 1/1.5 (ML)

Moneyline: DAMWON -167 (3 units)

Handicapped: DAMWON -1.5 @ +176 (1.5 units)

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LPL Spring 2019 - W8D4:

UPDATE: This line has since changed to EDG +145, +1.5 @ -222.

Unfortunately this line has moved against us a bit. I loved EDG at +165. I tend to bet against narrative/hype and the "EDG have looked awful" narrative has been strong but really only based on one poor series against LGD who apparently show up once every ten series just to upset people. FunPlus are a really good team and EDG are heading into an absolute nightmare part of their schedule. There is a totally reasonable chance that EDG don't make the playoffs since they punted a couple bad series this season but I'm holding out Hope (get it?!). This team's metrics are outstanding and are right on par with FunPlus. They also have the talent in mid lane to keep up with or cancel out DoinB who is the leader of FunPlus. FPP have lost their last two series largely because teams have focused on shutting down DoinB and I think, perhaps, that they may be temporarily figured out to some degree. I'm not going to oversell this or anything because this is still an excellent team but I think EDG are coming in a bit underrated and FunPlus are going to have to show us the ability to adapt to this new approach teams might take towards them.

I know we've lost some line value but I still like EDG as dogs here for a small wager. I'd like it a bit more with side selection but I still think this is decent.

"Gut": EDG +145 (moderate)

Confidence: 4/5 (handicap), 3/5 (ML)

Value: 0/1.5 (handicap), 0.5/1.5 (ML)

Moneyline: EDG +145 (1 unit +1 unit added on)

I won't be wagering on this one but you should know that IG have a tendency to drop games to underdogs and this has been an absolutely bonkers week so if you want to ride that spiritual lightning feel free.

"Gut": no wager

Confidence: 4.5/5 (handicap), 5/5 (ML)

Value: 0/1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)

No wager

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LMS Spring 2019 - W7D2:

Alpha took a game in this series the first time these two teams met. Just like with Dragon Gate except these two teams are actually closer in the standings and in gold diferrential. Alpha +1.5 @ +195 looks ok for a unit and the moneyline I'll take for half a unit. They have a better than 2% chance (implied odds of -5000 is 98%) of winning this series especially with side selection. Hell if you're feeling really spicy drop a quarter on the exact Alpha 2-0.

"Gut": Alpha ML and Handicap (small)

Confidence: 2.5/5 (handicap), 1.5/5 (ML)

Value: 1.5/1.5 (handicap), 1.5/1.5 (ML)

Moneyline: Alpha +798 (0.5 units)

Handicapped: Alpha +1.5 maps @ +195 (1 unit)

AHQ were having a bit of a surge winning three of their last four but then dropped a close series to 4th place G-Rex. AHQ have been using a ton of different roster configurations this season but in their last three have stuck to the same lineup of Ziv, Alex, Rainbow, Wako, and Ysera and it seems to be working just a little bit better for them. That said J Team have looked like a better team this season from the games I've watched. Full disclosure I haven't watched every single JTeam series just a handful. With side selection and a superior team I actually like getting close to even money on the sweep. AHQ had a good run the past four matches but it was against Alpha twice and the similarly rated Hong Kong Attitude and G-Rex. J Team are pretty clearly the #3 team in the LMS from what I've seen, a tier behind MAD and Flash Wolves but a tier above the rest of the league. I like them to sweep here.

"Gut": J Team -1.5 @ -108 (moderate)

Confidence: 4/5 (handicap), 5/5 (ML)

Value: 1.0/1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: J Team -1.5 maps @ -108 (2 units)

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LEC Spring 2019 - W9D1:

I don't like as much of the Friday slate as I do the Saturday slate so I'll have selections tomorrow. None today. Consult the podcast for Europe talk because John had a few good reads on this weekends slate as usual.

No wagers