My takeaways from day one via my Twitter:
1) Korea looking more confident and loosened up at an international event for the first time in a long time. I don't know if it was just pressure from the years long dynasty after rough performances last year or if it's new teams or both but LCK looks great
2) Brains beat braun as KZ beat FPX. Helping out your rookie in Naehyun against DoinB did a ton to help in this game as Nae had an absolutely sick game on Azir. Loved the Rascal Kled too. Shows a willingness to adapt and mix it up that Korea hasnt had. Great coaching on KZ
3) Buffalo had a shot to beat JDG, both teams made a lot of macro mistakes but teamfought well. I like JDG going simple with front to back 2-core but against better teams they're going to be exposed for having little prio early. Lack of discipline let Buf back into the game.
4) TOP are a cold, disciplined, tryhard type team and today they were straight up disrespectful to EVOS. TOP are feelin' themselves right now and while I'm not sure it's necessarily a good thing it's definitely a nice change of pace to watch.
5) As mentioned earlier, against better teams JDG are going to get punished just playing scaling 2-core. Griffin going uptempo with the Akali, Sylas jung, Talon showing a significantly different look than we're used to from them. Can't stress it enough, Griffin can do everything There has been evidence of this and just because they don't always play this way doesn't mean they're incapable or unwilling to do so. Griffin were also in full style mode showing a ton of disrespect to JDG. Weird look for a team that's super disciplined but i LOVE the swagger!
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Rift Rivals Asia - Day 2
We didn't get to see MAD on day one but people should know that they currently look slightly better than the Flash Wolves. As I mentioned on the podcast both MAD and Flash Wolves play a very slow and steady style and are very similar teams. That said we really shouldn't expect much from the LMS or VCS teams and as we saw yesterday they're just outclassed by everyone including a JDG team that I think is a cut worse than the field. I'm taking the under 21.5 kills in this game as well as the under 31:00. It will depend on how Kingzone wants to approach this game. My guess would be to assume rational coaching because their coaching staff is excellent and they select a more uptempo look for this game. This is also a team that just beat a menacing FunPlus Phoenix squad yesterday so they're going to be feeling really confident. MAD aren't even in the same universe of quality. This should be a Kingzone stomping.
(I erroneously entered this as OVER 31:00 counting the loss since I didnt spot it to hedge)
O/U: KZ/MAD UNDER 21.5 kills @ -114 (3 units)
Prop: Kingzone First Blood @ -169 (1 unit)
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I've been saying that I'm going to feel so bad for the first team that has to face Invictus with their full lineup reassembled this season and unfortunately for Flash Wolves they drew the short straw. Invictus are going to smash this team. I don't think there will be any real rust to shake off when you have players of this caliber and after a lackluster performance in day one, I'd expect this to be the fast and decisive IG we all know and love utterly smashing a team that's never seen anything quite like this. The 24.5 kill total is intriguing to me on both sides. You could argue that even against bad teams IG tend to give up a ton of kills and that it's a lock this is a bloody affair but LPL teams and LMS teams play vastly different styles and you could make the under argument for that reason. I could see this match being something like 17-4 kills. I'm siding with the under 24.5 mostly based on the LMS' lack of willingness to commit to fights. Flash Wolves aren't fight averse but they are risk averse so when fights go south they just bail instead of trying to force the rest out. I expect IG to be invigorated. With their full lineup finally intact they can start the road back to worlds off right and shake off this early season funk they've had. Expect IG to take it to the Flash Wolves.
O/U: IG/FW UNDER 24.5 kills @ -114 (1 unit)
O/U: IG/FW UNDER 28:00 @ -114 (2 units)
Prop: Invictus First Blood @ -175 (2 units)
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I feel like I should be on a side in this game between DAMWON and TOP eSports but I just can't get a read on this game. I think TOP were uncharacteristically disrespectful on day one but they also played EVOS, a team that they perhaps could style on a bit. DAMWON, who also played EVOS, were more or less themselves. Both teams smashed a bad opponent. I think a lot of this series comes down to what DAMWON lineup we're going to get. They played Flame in day one for the first time in awhile. The Karma top is definitely not a Nuguri style pick so if they're relying heavily on that to shutdown 369 then I actually think I like TOP. Nuguri I think can actually go blow for blow and might even outclass 369. It's a matchup I want to see really badly but I'm not sure we will. I'm abstaining from this match despite it being one that actually has betable odds. It feels bad but I just don't know how these teams are going to approach each other. I do like a light wager on the over 32:00 as I think this should be a competitive game.
O/U: TOP/DAM OVER 32:00 @ -114 (1 unit)
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Griffin vs Buffalo is a surprisingly weird game to approach. If Griffin are in full swagger style mode this kill score could get run up past the 22.5 number especially with Buffalo constantly forcing things. The thing is Griffin are another really intelligent team and they're just going to do what they need to to win.I think they'll look at how the more disciplined teams just didn't play Buffalo's game and outmacro'd them at MSI but Invictus, who did scrap with them should have lost. My guess would be that Griffin ice this game and slow it down to a crawl like they've been so damn good at this season in the LCK. This is, for my money, the best defensive team in the world and perhaps ever. I also think their lanes are just vastly superior to anything the Buffalo can march out. Sword against a guy playing his first split in top lane? I'll take that all day long. I'm going to take a risk and put a unit on the under 22.5 because I think Griffin will play this by the book. If you think they're feeling themselves and want to try to have some fun scrapping against the Buffalo than you should definitely take the over because this is an EXTREMELY low number if you feel that's the likely outcome.
O/U: GRF/BUF UNDER 22.5 kills @ -103 (1 unit)
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FunPlus vs Kignzone was the most interesting game yesterday and I don't think we should take anything away from FunPlus for it. Kingzone had the right gameplan AND executed well because their players are good and playing at a high level right now. MAD aren't in the same ballpark. They're not even in the same county, state, etc. FunPlus have been on a revenge tour in the LPL after their disappointing exit in the playoffs last split and after a loss yesterday I honestly feel bad for MAD Team who are going to have to stare down the raging Phoenix. FunPlus are going to utterly smash this team. The 23.5 kill total is too low to bet in a FunPlus game. They average just shy of 18 kills per game on their own and even against teams they smash the games tend to be style fests. 20-6 in a 25 minute win against LGD, 22-6 in a 25 minute win against Victory Five, etc. Actually if you want to draw a team comparison in both style and relative strength I think Team WE in the LPL is a reasonable comparison and FunPlus demolished them in 28 minutes and 23 minutes. I'm slamming the under 30 minutes here. FunPlus are going to be full on Edward Norton beating that dude to a bloody pulp in 'Fight Club'
"I felt like destroying something beautiful."
O/U: FPX/MAD UNDER 30:00 @ -125 (4 units)
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I thought SKT looked pretty good yesterday and they get to face an Invictus that they've seen before AND in their second game after their full lineup has reunited. If you think the rust factor is real feel free to bet SKT but I think Invictus are a stylistic nightmare for how SKT like to play the game and I actually think this line is accurate even with all of the factors working against Invictus. Consider this a statement but I'm going heavy on Invictus tomorrow morning and expect them to run over this SKT lineup. I won't hold it against SKT if they lose this either.
Moneyline: Invictus -161 (4 units)
O/U: SKT/IG UNDER 32:00 @ +100 (1 unit)
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Parlays:
Once again we're going to do some heavy favorite pseudo hedge parlays like we succeeded with this morning. In these we're taking a few heavy favorites and then both sides of the match we're less confident in which is TOP/DAM tomorrow. This allows us to win no matter what providing the heavy favorites KZ, IG, and GRF all win their matches.
Parlay (4): KZ ML + IG ML + TOP ML + GRF ML @ +174 (2.5 units)
Parlay (4): KZ ML + IG ML + DAM ML + GRF ML @ +148 (2.5 units)
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Parlay (2): Invictus ML + FPX/MAD UNDER 30:00 @ + 192 (1 unit)
Parlay (2): FPX/MAD UNDER 30 + IG/FW UNDER 28 @ +238 (1 unit)
My books have closed the KZ/MAD under for now but I plan on firing that in combination with these three selections in parlays of two and three as well when it reopens.
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