Monday, July 29, 2019

Betting: July 30th (LPL)

LPL Summer 2019 - Week 9 Day 2



I know we bet WE against Invictus citing the fact that the number was just too far off to not take a chance on it but man oh man did WE look good. After getting run over in 24 minutes in game one, most teams, especially against IG, just get run over again. Often times it's the first game IG will drop to a mediocre or bad team before righting the ship and smashing. WE got completely smashed in game one and had the resilience to bring it back in games two and three and CONVINCINGLY beat Invictus. It's one series but really how many teams can honestly say that? I know IG were trying some new picks out but I was extremely impressed with WE in this series. It showed a lot of character and that their trajectory is even more upward than we might have thought going into that series.

The danger here is that this is a classic let down spot. Vici have won 6 games this season, a few of which were against respectable teams. WE have mostly been solid against the bottom teams but can't seem to beat the stronger teams (until this series). It's a bit brazen but I'm actually going to bet into this because I think it's worth laying -125 for this. I'd say the likelihood of a WE 2-0 is closer to 60 or 65%, the 2-1 something like 30%, and any Vici outcome the rest. Vici just aren't a good squad. They're spunky and have some fight in them but the players just aren't that great and WE are playing with a lot of confidence right now.

This should probably be a 2-3 unit wager but I'm going to up it to five. WE are rolling right now and until they show otherwise I'm willing to ride along. This is aggressive and you should tail or not based on your own personal risk tolerance as always.

Spread: Team WE -1.5 maps @ -125 (5 units)


This one feels like a trap to me. I absolutely love the new look Dominus and think this is a new team with a new sense of confidence. LGD are, as far as I can tell, mailing this season in and trying out all sorts of lineups. Tomorrow they'll be marching out new top laner Garvey (who is 17 by the way), BadeMan, and RD at support again. For some teams I think giving a young prospect a chance can be a good thing but LGD's constant lineup shuffle makes it really hard for me to have any confidence in them moving forward except against the true bottom of the barrel like Vici or OMG.

You were able to get this line at -150 earlier in the week and I didn't fire on it. -179 is probably too rich for a Dominus team that still isn't what I'd call a great team but whether you bet this or not depends largely on how you rate current Dominus. Are they a good team? Are they a team that would make playoffs if the season started today? You need to ask yourself those questions. I for one am going to include the Dominus moneyline and LGD +1.5 split evenly in parlays for this slate but I'm not quite confident enough that Dominus is this much better than anybody at the moment. It's close though. At the -150 opening I would have bet this but -179 is a bit too much to pay.

No wager (strong lean Dominus, will include LGD +1.5 and DOM ML in split parlays)

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Parlays:

Parlay (2): WE -1.5 + LGD +1.5 @ +170 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): WE -1.5 + DOM ML @ +181 (1 unit)

More or less IF WE sweep then we're guaranteed roughly 0.75 units and potentially up to 3.5 units if we get an exact 2-1 Dominus victory.



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