Wednesday, July 10, 2019

Betting: July 11th (LCK)

LCK Summer - Week 5 Day 2


This is a fascinating matchup! DAMWON had an outstanding performance at Rift Rivals and Sandbox have won six series in a row heading into the week off. Normally I'd say this kind of break kills the momentum but after facing three of the four weakest teams in the league for their most recent three matches I think Sandbox have a higher chance at just being caught off guard by a good team rather than being simply "due for a loss." Jin Air, Gen.G and KT Rolster aren't exactly world beaters. 

Tough game to cap here. On one hand you have the "hangover" factor for DAMWON which is a combination of lack of preparation on their part AND perhaps some extra preparation by Sandbox. This is impactful. However on the other you could argue DAMWON are the stronger team overall. Personally I don't believe that narrative like a lot of people do. Sandbox have impressed me and while that sounds stupid to say about the current second place team they really have shown the ability to elevate against good teams even taking a series from Griffin handing them two of their three game losses on the season. This team is really good! 

I think Sandbox might not be due for as much regression as people think but I do think they're going to have some losses here and it wouldn't surprise me to see this be one of them. I was hoping we'd get better odds on this but we didn't so we're just going to stick to the OVER 2.5 maps played for a couple units. I think this should be a close series that could go either way. There's a chance we get blown out by a flat performance by DAMWON in their first match back but I think they'll be game especially after seeing Kingzone punt a game to KT Rolster yesterday. 

Prop: OVER 2.5 maps played @ +100 (2.5 units)

UPDATE

Moneyline: Sandbox -128 (2 units)

Prop: Exact Sandbox 2-1 @ +211

More I've thought about it I think with two relatively evenly matched teams I'm going to go with Sandbox having an entire week to prepare for this matchup especially because they have Jin Air on Saturday and I'm sure they spent the majority of their time prepping for this match.


Neither of these teams went to Rift Rivals and have had a full week to prepare for one another. I think a lot of people are going to be on Jin Air +1.5 here citing the extra week of preparation. Typically I'd agree because a week of extra prep for a bad team allows them to improve much more than a good team but Jin Air are also incredibly bad and Afreeca aren't coming in off of a winning streak or anything. In fact Afreeca have a showdown with Griffin later this week. You could argue maybe that Afreeca might be looking forward to that but with the extra time to prepare I think it's ample for both. Also worth considering is SKT look primed for a second half run after a good performance at Rift Rivals which means Afreeca are going to have to step it up if they want a playoff spot. Every game is going to count.

Given the circumstances I don't think Afreeca will be sleeping on Jin Air even with a match against Griffin coming up later this week. I think Afreeca take care of business here.

Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ -196 (5.5 units BOOK MAX)

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Parlays:

Parlay (2): DAM/SAN OVER 2.5 maps + Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +196 (1.5 units)

Parlay (3): DAM/SAN OVER 2.5 maps + Afreeca -1.5 + Griffin -1.5 @ +344 (1 unit)


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