Betting: July 16th (LPL)

LPL Summer 2019 - Week 7 Day 2

This is a tad aggressive given the abysmal start we've seen from Dominus but the general idea of this wager is that I don't think World Elite are this much better than anybody. I'm not typically a pure value bettor. It's a factor, and a large one at that, but it's not something I'm blindly loyal to. I think in this case we're getting such an overwhelming value that I can't say not to firing on it. 

Dominus have three game wins this season. I think this team lacks leadership and their macro is a bit suspect because of it but they do have really solid players. I look at Dominus as similar to Victory Five. They've got the chops they just don't always use them in the most efficient way. Both teams had good starts to their Spring split and then were "figured out" over time but I just can't see Dominus being this poor. They were 21-14 in games last split and finished the season fourth in overall game score. Notably, although it was a long time ago back in week one of Spring, Dominus won a slugfest game one against WE and then utterly stomped them in game two with... Lulu mid... 

The point I'm making is that while I think Dominus are going to need to make some changes for this roster to challenge for the top half of the LPL we saw that just good players was a good enough formula to get them to a solid record in the Spring. I also think the efficiency metrics for these two teams are much closer than this spread implies. I don't want to blame Dominus' schedule for their poor start as they lost to Suning and punted a game to Vici but if you look at the rest of this schedule they've faced all of the top teams besides RNG (Note: IG was playing the subs so they're not the same strength.) 

This is a combination of regression to the mean and aggressive value betting. Dominus aren't a last place team. They're better than Vici, I think they're better than Rogue Warriors, LGD, maybe not OMG anymore but honestly after those teams I think its JDG and WE and Victory Five and quite frankly I think Dominus could end up better than all of those. This team has had a bad start and while they got smashed by BiliBili in their first game coming off the break I'm confident that they at least take a game here and think there is about a 50/50 chance they take this series outright against a WE team that I feel is constantly overrated. 

Moneyline: Dominus +153 (1 unit) (early wager)

Moneyline: Dominus +172 (1.5 units) 

Spread: Dominus +1.5 @ -164 (4 units)

Prop: WE to win ZERO maps @ +402 (0.5 units)

Prop: OVER 2.5 maps played @ +120 (1 unit)

It's really important for those that actively watch league to hunt for lines in advance when they can because the value is obscene. I unfortunately write these in a structure and outside of the ocassional early tip on Twitter can't write up this early a lot of the time so you don't get to always see the same lines but this is a great example. I got this line at BiliBili +115. It's actually since moved to as high as -154 for BiliBili. To me JDG not only look like a hot mess since Rift Rivals, but a hot mess in general. They just got utterly destroyed by two emergency subs in the top and jungle for TOP and while TOP have exceptional laners, JDG do as well and it just hasn't shown recently. I don't know what's going on with this team. Perhaps it's just that they are who we thought they were. As a matter of fact I actually do think that's the case. I've been saying all along that this JDG team is tremendously overrated and they caught lightning in a bottle and made the most miracle of miracle runs to the finals last split. I hate to say it but I told you so.

Not all is lost. JDG do have an excellent top half of the map... when it's functioning. Flawless is back in for this game so perhaps the Kanavi experiment might be over or Flawless just needed some rest. The thing is BiliBili and TOP are built very similarly. They have exceptional solo laners, intelligent and patient macro play to force you into errors on the map and unfortunately for the ever clumsy JDG, they often play into these types of errors. This is a really bad stylistic matchup for JDG. In matches where JDG's solo lanes can't get enormous advantages they just fold either to mistakes or their bottom lane being a huge liability. BiliBili are a smart team that isn't going to play your rough and tumble non-sense and feed you kills AND their solo lanes are just as good if not better than JDG's. 

I think BiliBili completely stomp this game. You could argue that JDG have to turn it around at some point but I'm treating JDG as if they have always been this bad and just caught lightning in a bottle. I'll admit they performed better than expected at Rift Rivals so perhaps that's a ray of sunshine to hang your hat on but this team is ultimately a bad team that I think will miss playoffs this season. I think the spiral has already started and that they're more or less only going to beat teams that have worse solo laners than they do and there aren't even many of those in the LPL anymore. This is a Dominique Wilkins slam dunk! I even think it's fine to bet BiliBili at -154 and I might add on to this.

Pick of the Week!

Moneyline: BiliBili +115 (3.5 units) (early wager)(POTW)

Prop: Exact BiliBili 2-0 @ +242 (1 unit) (early wager)

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Parlays:

Parlay (2): BiliBili ML + Dominus +1.5 @ +175 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): BiliBili -1.5 + Dominus ML @ +662 (0.5 units)

Parlay (3): BiliBili ML + Dominus +1.5 + EDG ML @ +263 (1 unit)

Parlay (3): BiliBili ML + Dominus +1.5 + EDG -1.5 @ +449 (0.5 units)