Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Betting: July 18th (LCK)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 6 Day 1


As most of you know by know I'm just avoiding Gen.G but I'll still write on this game anyway.

Before discussing this specific matchup I need to dispel a few things about Gen.G. First, the Volibear support is not a new thing, it's something that's been picking up steam in high level solo queue in both Korea and China but Gen.G are getting all the credit for "innovating" it because they just happened to be the first to try it in pro play in a great spot for it. Was it out of character for them? Yea sure it was but I also don't think it's a particularly groundbreaking strategy. Second, is this idea that Gen.G are a changed team just because they've shown any proactivity whatsoever in a few games. A couple games does not a new team make and I'd bet a large sum of money that they turn back into a pumpkin at some point. Third, this team is still the same team we've seen all year, Fly or not. Yes they've been better but they still just want to scale, still just want to let you screw up, and still aren't a particularly great defensive team. It's a bad combination.

Gen.G are particularly volatile right now so if you believe in variance then this is actually a great spot to take them. They've actually looked pretty good in their most recent series although I'll admit at least one of these games was spoon fed to them with an absolutely absymal draft. CuVee does this thing for about two weeks every summer season over the course of his career where he looks like the best top laner on the planet and then swiftly turns back into a pumpkin. It's been about a week and a half. If you want to play the guessing game of when that happens feel free but I won't be. The other angle to this series is that Sandbox haven't looked too sharp in their last two outings and their drafts have been suspect. If you think their coaching staff gets their draft priorities straight and they don't dig their own grave then I absolutely love Sandbox here. My opinion (and that's why you're here isn't it?) is that Sandbox don't make the same mistakes again, stop doing what all the good teams in Korea are doing and just scale and wait for mistakes, and absolutely take it to Gen.G here. I expect Sandbox to come in with an uptempo gameplan perhaps around Olaf or Lee Sin and just completely blow Gen.G out of the water.

For reasons stated last week I'm staying away from Gen.G for the time being. I simply can't get anything right with this team and I'm done smashing my head into a brick wall.

No wager (strong lean Sandbox -1.5)




This line has since moved to -588 / -1.5 @ -192 which, honestly I'd still fire on. Kingzone look like the best or second best team in Korea right now and after shutting down the red hot DAMWON's win streak it's pretty hard to argue that this team isn't great. Hanwha are the exact opposite of great. As a matter of fact, while Hanwha might not be as bad as Jin Air I'd argue they're even more disappointing. Hanwha have players and they just have no identity whatsoever. It's frustrating. I'm not saying they'd be a playoff team or anything like that with this roster but they could at least be competitive. Instead they're lethargic and outside of a couple instances of random aggression just seem to kind of roll over and die in games. Kingzone should wipe the floor here. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth this is easy.


Spread: Kingzone -1.5 @ -147 (5 units)(early wager)

-------------


Parlays:

Unfortunately I didn't get parlay bets in before the Kingzone line went through the roof but I'm still going to fire these off. Kingzone and SKT destroying the two bottom teams is about as surefire a thing as we get in League of Legends anymore so we're going to take the opportunity to fire heavy on some heavy favorite parlays something I've had a ton of success with this year (especially as a way to work around limits)

Parlay (2): Sandbox -1.5 + Kingzone -1.5 @ +247 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): Kingzone -1.5 + TOP -1.5 @ +158 (2 units)

Parlay (2): Kingzone -1.5 + Afreeca -1.5 @ +207 (2 units)

Parlay (3): Kingzone -1.5 + SKT -1.5 (tmw) @ -127 (3 units)

Parlay (3): Kingzone -1.5 + Afreeca -1.5 (tmw) + SKT -1.5 (tmw) @ +262 (1 unit)



The Thursday-Friday Sweep Parlay (4): 
Sandbox -1.5 + Kingzone -1.5 + SKT -1.5 + Afreeca 1.5 @ +726 (0.5 unit)

The Non-Gen.G Thursday-Friday Sweep Parlay (4):
Kingzone -1.5 + SKT -1.5 + Afreeca -1.5 + TOP -1.5 @ +516 (0.5 unit)





1 comment: