Betting: July 14th (LCK, LPL, NA LCS)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 5 Day 5

This one has moved a ton since Griffin's 2-0 loss but I also think a lot of people had the same thought I did and that's that Afreeca don't deserve to be as big a dog as they were against anybody. This is also a challenging matchup stylistically for Griffin since Afreeca are one of the better uptempo teams in the world. I need to be crystal clear about this and I said it on the podcast this week but to me this isn't an overreaction to Griffin's loss to Gen.G. Gen.G played the best series they've played all year long and I didn't even think Griffin played that badly. It happens. I will say, however, that Gen.G just exploited something that hopefully a lot of the LCK teams knew already and that's the Sword has just been a priority player this split. It's fine and all but it's predictable so it will be interesting to see if Griffin mix it up or if Afreeca choose to attack in the same way.

The long and short of it is that I think Griffin win this series but that the odds were way too off when I bet this. I consider Griffin one of the best teams in the world but I also think Afreeca are. They're one of the best uptempo teams on the planet in any region and I think that's a potent threat. This will be a measure of Afreeca potent offense against Griffin's stoic defense and could go either way. At these odds I'd probably still fire on this but I'm not adding to my previous wager.

Moneyline: Afreeca +472 (0.75 units)

Spread: Afreeca +1.5 @ +150 (1.5 units)

Gen.G SHOULD 2-0 this but this team has a knack for playing down to their competition. Hanwha have looked absolutely dreadful but as I mentioned on Twitter the other day I need to just limit my exposure to Gen.G. I seem to never have the right read on this team. They've taken more of my money over the last two years than any other team on the planet and after Griffin on Friday you can consider me a little tilted. 

I'm passing on this but the correct play is probably Gen.G 2-0 at these odds. We're not getting enough for HLE to take a game to take the +1.5. 

No wager

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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 6 Day 3

We discussed this on the podcast where EDG were my pick of the week. EDG are a top five team in the LPL to me. I know they don't really look like it recently with Hope coming in and out at ADC  but I think a combination of the time off and lineup swaps has dulled the perception of this team. LNG are sort of the opposite. They've impressed me and I don't think their hot start was a fluke or anything like that. They've fixed a lot of their problems. That said I still think this team is due for some regression and because of their hot start we're getting a TON of value on EDG here. While I think the concept is overstated most times I do think the break almost had to be worse for LNG, sort of in the same vein as OpTic in NA. When you're running hot and overperforming a break is the worst thing you want to see. It's not really affecting my wager that much but it's just an additional factor to consider. 

I think EDG are a way better team. They have better players in every single position. We will start to see them settle themselves into the top of the table with this series.

 As Chris said on the cast, "You can change your logo, you can shed your skin, but you're still Snake." 

Pick of the week!

Moneyline: EDG -132 (5.5 units, Book MAX)

Spread: EDG -1.5 @ +192 (1.5 units, Book MAX)

UPDATE: Aki and QiuQiu have been announced as the jungle and support for TOP and Kanavi in jungle for JDG. I'm going to half hedge all of my exposure on TOP, parlays and straight wagers. I tend to give more credit to subs than most people do unless it's one that's a known liability. I still think TOP can take this down but I'm just going to cut back on my exposure. Sucks but it is what it is.

UPDATE 2: Apparently the TOP sub situation was more of an emergency than a week off. Xx sick and Ben having visa issues post Rift Rivals

An interesting matchup between two teams coming back from Rift Rivals. As I mentioned the other day I actually thought JDG looked better than I thought they would at Rift Rivals but that doesn't mean I think they're a good team. TOP are a good team and almost more importantly they're a disciplined team that takes care of business against weaker teams. TOP have a hard time beating the other elite teams in the LPL but they tend to smash anyone we consider worse than they are. I also think this is a stylistically challenging matchup for JDG who typically rely on their solo lanes and jungle to get advantages. TOP are one of the few teams in the LPL that can just straight up outlane JDG. 369 isn't always impressive but he's an incredibly good neutralizer in much the same vein as 2018 Impact and Knight and Xx are perhaps the best mid/jungle duo in the LPL. 

TOP are not only a stronger team but have had extra time off compared to JDG who had to play earlier this week and looked pretty awful in their first series back. It wouldn't surprise me to see JDG take a game but we're getting good enough odds on the TOP sweep that I'm going to fire on both the sweep and the moneyline here. 

Moneyline: TOP -200 (6 units)

Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ +110 (2.5 units)

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NA LCS Summer 2019 - Week 6 Day 2

I have a surprising amount of action on the NA LCS tomorrow and even had some today. My biggest weekend of the Summer split in NA from a liability standpoint. First up tomorrow we have Liquid and FlyQuest. I like the momentum and confidence FlyQuest is playing with but I'm not going to bet them against a Liquid team that's two cuts above the rest of this league. I'll be hard pressed to bet against Liquid the rest of the season.

Cloud 9 and TSM I put a bet in on before Cloud 9's embarassing loss to Echo Fox just now so there is a good chance you'll find a better number than I did. I'd assume Svenskeren is going to play after that performance yesterday. C9 usually play well with their subs but Blaber's last few times out haven't looked so hot. The thing is it's not like TSM's jungle situation will be any better. I had a best of one max three units on Cloud 9 to win this before this performance and while I'm a little less confident after today's match I also think we're going to get better odds on them once the books reopen. TSM aren't a great team either even if it means they're probably a playoff team in NA. I consider Cloud 9 to be in their own tier below Liquid but above the rest of the LCS when they're on and after today I expect them to turn it back on tomorrow so I'm not going to hedge my previous bet. I'd still bet it considering we'll prolly get something more like -125 now.

UPDATE: This line is now C9 -115/TSM -110. LOVE C9 at that number

Moneyline: Cloud 9 -145 (3 units)

Golden Guardians just look off. I can't put a finger on what it is but there's just something about this team that screams stagnation. They're a smart macro team but they just haven't been getting lane leads so it puts a lot of pressure on their macro and jungle play to manufacture leads which creates an inconsistent team. CLG are firing on all cylinders. Maybe that just means "are a playoff team" in NA because I'm not sure how much room this team has to grow but they're solid, consistent, and clean. I'm not sure I'd bet this at -175 but I got in at -159 for a unit.

Moneyline: CLG -159 (1 unit)

As I'm writing this 100T and OpTic are in champion select but we're almost certainly going to get some value on this after the Echo Fox beat C9. Echo Fox didn't win that game nearly as much as Cloud 9 threw it to me. Cloud 9 looked like they were clowning around a bit too much yesterday. Their heads didn't appear to be in the game, chasing kills, making cheesy picks in game (not picks in draft), and just generally looking distracted. I absolutely love 100 Thieves in this spot regardless of how this OpTic series turns out. I think if they lose we're going to get a TON of value off of this with the combined Echo Fox win + 100 Thieves loss. If that's the case I'm going to actually fire on this and exceed my best of one limit of three units to add one or two more. 100 Thieves might not make playoffs but they've found their lane and look a lot better. Even last week against a tough schedule they looked great in their losses. Echo Fox are the worst team in the league. I'm in on 100 Thieves regardless of the result. I put this bet in earlier this week but might pile on depending on how the odds change.

Moneyline: 100 Thieves -182 (3 units, might add more)

I love OpTic here. I think people are assuming this teams hot start was a fluke but I think this team is better than public perception. They are no longer one dimensional from a composition standpoint and even if their jungle/mid focus is predictable it's difficult to stop when you have a player like Crown involved. Clutch look like a team with no direction. I thought the promotion of their assistant coach might change some things but that sort of thing doesn't happen overnight and it appears that they're not approaching draft any differently. I know TSM cheesed them a bit with the Azir top but Clutch are becoming predictable. They need to simplify things and just play easier to execute compositions but they don't appear to think that. I love OpTic here. Again I'm higher on them than most people are but Clutch look like a bottom three team and OpTic are firmly a playoff team and a tier better. It's rare we get odds this good it's just because of OpTic's recent losses.

Moneyline: OpTic -149 (3 units)

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Parlays:

I'll be putting a handful of parlays out on the Eastern slate because I feel rather strongly about it. I'll be combining various moneylines, spreads, focused on the four LCK and LPL matches.

Parlay (2): EDG ML + TOP ML @ +166 (2 units)

Parlay (4): Afreeca +1.5 + GenG ML + EDG ML + TOP ML @ +647 (1 unit)

"Exacta" Parlay (4): TOP -1.5 + Gen.G -1.5 + EDG -1.5 + Afreeca +1.5 @ +2886 (0.1 unit)

Parlay (3): Gen.G ML + EDG ML + TOP ML @ +261 (2 units)

Parlay (3): TOP -1.5 + EDG -1.5 + GenG -1.5 @ +1343 (0.5 units)

Parlay (4): Griffin -1.5 + GenG -1.5 + EDG -1.5 + TOP -1.5 @ +2338 (0.25 units)

Parlay (3): Afreeca ML  + EDG ML + TOP ML @ +1002 (0.25 units)

NA Parlays will be later once books reopen.

"HEDGE" Parlays for TOP news:

Parlay (2): JDG +1.5 + EDG ML @ +167 (1 unit)