LCK Summer 2019 - Week 7 Day 3
We talked a lot about this matchup on the cast this week. The first time these two teams met I was on the Afreeca side and that was during Kingzone's dominant run earlier this split. My reasoning was that Afreeca's uptempo style and ridiculous talent level in their solo lanes could punish the good not great solo lanes of Kingzone. For the most part (not entirely) it played out that way.
So why am I going to be so heavy on Kingzone then? There's a lot of reasons but I'll focus on perhaps the most important one. I've talked about it a few times recently but Afreeca are in a really narrow range of options in drafts right now because of the liability of Senan on non-tank supports and because of this other teams can more or less force Afreeca to have to ban things they normally wouldn't like Yuumi and Lux or pick it with a player that's struggling mightily to play them well. Add to the mix Mordekaiser who isn't only a borderline must pick/ban due to power level but has specific tools to completely nullify Afreeca's strongest attribute, snowballing early games. To some degree Afreeca have been solved and hold very little leverage in drafts right now. Either they're going to have to get really creative and flip the script entirely, bring in a substitution, or just play at an intergalactic level.
I think the combination of these exploitable weaknesses and Kingzone's excellent drafting and game planning this season give me the confidence that they'll see and exploit the same things. I also think that Deft and Tusin are the best bottom lane in the world and hoenstly I don't think it's particularly close. These two are downright bonkers. They're turning into the bullies in counter matchups, absorbing unbelievable amounts of pressure and even in the games where they're strong side they're just doing a better job generating income and vision advantages than anybody. From there Deft can just do what he's done his entire career and be one of the best to ever play the position. I also think Rascal and Naehyun have proven to be far from "weaknesses" even against superior competition. I'm a tad skeptical in that I think Afreeca's solo lanes could potentially run away with one of these games but I think their lack of wiggle room in drafts right now is going to be such a huge problem until it's addressed that against good teams I just don't think they have a real solid chance.
Moneyline: Kingzone -238 (8 units)
Spread: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ +119 (3 units)
Gen.G were in a very commanding position and looking like they were going to take down SKT in game one of their series the other day but SKT were able to engineer the comeback and Gen.G just got run over completely in game two. I said on Twitter after the first game of that series that I'd have a lot of respect for Gen.G if they managed to put up another competitive game against SKT and even though they didn't I'm actually going to admit that I was impressed. Gen.G have a history of luring me in and then disappointing me but I'm going with them to 2-0 KT Rolster here. KT are still, seven months later, struggling to close games out and with the constant shifting roster don't seem to be able to find any momentum unless BDD can just carry a game by himself. I think one of the few things, until the other day, that Gen.G has been so good at is playing out late games and getting there without losing too much. I don't trust KT Rolster to punish them.
I'm tempering my weight here because it's Gen.G but I'm going to put a couple units on the Gen.G sweep. Stylistically this is a bit of a nightmare for KT Rolster. KT have looked a bit better in recent weeks but still look pretty firmly planted in the lower tier of LCK teams at the moment.
Spread: Gen.G -1.5 @ -103 (2 units)
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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 8 Day 5
Another match we talked a ton about on the podcast this week. John even made this his pick of the week! LNG have been impressive. Even in their strong opening against a relatively weak schedule we were still impressed. The thing is they've struggled against superior talent and RNG are one of, if not the strongest team in the LPL right now. To me the LPL breaks down into a handful of tiers with RNG, IG, and FPX in tier 1, EDG and TOP in tier 1.5 and LNG, BiliBili and ??? in that next tier 2. The question marks are because I'm not sure how JDG and WE and some of these other mid table teams are going to end the season but I do think LNG is almost definitely at least a bit better than all of those teams in current form.
I digress... This is pretty easy money. RNG do have some history of punting games to middling and bottom tier teams but they haven't been nearly as guilty of that this season as they have in years past. Perhaps the steady lineup and wanting to continue to incorporate LangX is doing more than just good things on the Rift but forcing this team to not coast to the finish line in the Summer split like they've historically done until playoffs.
I'm trusting RNG to smash LNG here. It's no disrespect to LNG at all, RNG are just on a completely different level.
Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ -130 (3 units BOOK MAX)
I'm going to do the long story, short or TL:DR version of this one here because it's pretty simple. FunPlus should win this but EDG are a good enough team that it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them take this series down. If I was capping this series it'd probably be closer to something like FunPlus -150. That'd give FunPlus a 60% implied win probability. EDG have arguably better players pound for pound and are a fairly versatile team that I think could come up with a game plan for FunPlus' extremely linear style. That said, FunPlus have been beating teams that outclass them individually all season long and they've been one of the few teams on earth doing that as consistently and dominantly as they have been.
The odds are off not just by a little but, in my opinion, by over 200 points. It's rare to get this kind of value with a team as good as EDG is.
I'm only able to put a half unit on this currently (limited) but I'd honestly put three or more units on this pick. I think this most be the most grossly incorrect line we've seen all calendar year and we should attack that. This is a flaccid number. GO ATTACK IT!
Moneyline: EDG +245 (0.5 units, BOOK MAX) (would go three to five without limits)
Spread: EDG +1.5 maps @ -116 (3 units)
Prop: FunPlus to win a map? NO @ +514 (0.25 units)
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LEC Summer 2019 - Week 6 Day 2
This is a good illustration of why it's so important to look ahead and get value on your lines. I'll be betting each of these anyway but I've lost a ton of value on them. DON'T BE LIKE ME TODAY AND GET AHEAD LIKE I USUALLY DO
We've lost 24 points on Splyce and 27 on Vitality.
I think Splyce are super consistent and look like a slowly improving third best team in Europe, almost in their own tier at this point. Schalke could very well take this series but I'm honestly surprised we're getting anything better than -200 on Splyce at this point. I think people are still skeptical. Splyce do everything Schalke does better than they do. I usually don't like favorites that play the same way but Splyce have been steadily improving their tempo and priority play and it's getting them some huge advantages in games. I think that upside plus their "fallback" plan being just a strictly better version of Schalke makes me confident enough to put my best of one max three units on Splyce.
Moneyline: Splyce -167 (3 units)
I've been impressed with Rogue but even with Vitality's struggles this season are you sincerely going to look me in the eye and tell me you think this match is close? Rogue is feeling like they could come back down to earth after playing their strongest handful of games ever and Vitality are still in good position to make playoffs if they can just clean things up a little. I also trust Vitality to be themselves and that could be a really challenging thing for the young squad of Rogue to deal with. On a more visceral end just look at this matchup and think about Jiizuke against this Rogue lineup. This game could just get out of hand ... at his hands.
Moneyline: Vitality -143 (3 units)
Fnatic are a cut above everyone besides G2 and unless we see the subs here I'm going to take them -200 against anybody in the LEC.
Moneyline: Fnatic -200 (3 units)
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NA LCS Summer 2019 - Week 8 Day 1
Not a whole lot in NA on Saturday. I like 100 Thieves against Golden Guardians. Two teams trending opposite directions plus a lot of scuttlebut about 100 Thieves looking like the best of the bottom half teams in scrims plus the eyetest somewhat confirming that affrimation. Bit by feel more than I have a ton of evidence for but I'm rolling maxed on 100 Thieves tomorrow. Also parlaying them with 100 Thieves on Sunday vs TSM too.
Moneyline: 100 Thieves +101 (3 units)
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Parlays:
LCK / LPL:
Parlay (3): Kingzone ML + GenG ML + RNG ML @ +132 (3 units)
Parlay (4): Gen.G ML + Kingzone ML + RNG ML + EDG +1.5 @ +332 (1 unit)
Parlay (4):
Gen.G -1.5 + Kingzone -1.5 + RNG -1.5 + EDG +1.5 @ +1320 (0.5 units)
NA / EU
Parlay (2): 100T ML (Sat) + 100T ML (Sun) @ +454 (0.5 units)
Parlay (3): Splyce ML + Vitality ML + Fnatic ML @ +308 (1 unit)
Parlay (2): Vitality ML + Fnatic ML @ +155 (2 units)
Parlay (2): Splyce ML + Fnatic ML @ +140 (2 units)
Parlay (2): Splyce ML + Vitality ML @ +172 (2 units)
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