Saturday, July 27, 2019

Betting: July 28th (LCK, LPL, NA LCS)


LCK Summer 2019 - Week 7 Day 4


This is an absolutely fascinating game. Griffin haven't looked themselves since returning from Rift Rivals and SKT have gone 12-0 in their last 12 games, albeit against weaker competition. SKT have looked utterly dominant though in the way that you expect a great team to smash bad teams. They've ended games under the total game time in ten of their last twelve. 

I'll be honest and say that I'm kind of surprised this number isn't further apart but this line feels accurate. At some point Griffin are going to turn it back on. They looked fine against KT Rolster but KT isn't exactly a strong team. Also worth noting is that Griffin have struggled with SKT since joining the LCK last year, most notably in Spring finals. I'm not sure I'm going to bet this yet. I'm leaning Griffin because I think if you ignore recent performance these two teams should be more or less even. I'm likely just going to watch this with a bowl of popcorn and enjoy it. Check back before the match, I might change my mind.

No wager (lean Griffin ML)


This line actually opened at -1429 so some money has come in on Jin Air or the model saw the DAMWON loss and adjusted. Is this honestly a question? I think Jin Air would need like +400 or better odds on their +1.5 for me to even consider it but -294 is really rich to do anything other than include this in parlays. However.... this over/under game time is weirdly 33:00. If you exclude the few outliers in DAMWON's records this season they've been a little over a 30 minute team. Jin Air tend to play longer games historically and I'm guessing the combination of those two factors is why this number is so high.

Jump on this. Especially because Jin Air lost their Super Bowl against Hanwha I can't see them being anything other than defeated and DAMWON are going to want the rebound after a not so clean series against Sandbox. DAMWON are going to utterly obliterate Jin Air. Slam the under.


O/U: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -116 (3 units, BOOK MAX)

O/U: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -116 (3 units, BOOK MAX)

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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 8 Day 6


I desperately want to bet Rogue Warriors here but I was legitimately impressed by Dominus' new players. It gave the team a new look and new identity that they desperately needed. I don't want to overreact to one series and we're paying a lot of juice on this one but I actually like Dominus here quite a bit. There isn't enough of a sample size to go heavy on this one but I'm going to put a unit on the Dominus ML. RW haven't had a lot of time to look into this new look Dominus and they have to be feeling confident after their victory against JDG. 

My book has a ton of juice but shop around for a line you like on this one.

Moneyline: Dominus -112 (1 unit)

Spread: Dominus -1.5 @ +189 (0.5 units)


This is a classic Invictus punt a game to a mediocre team spot. As an added bonus WE have actually looked pretty good recently. Against all odds they've overcome a lot of off the rift drama and are seeming to piece together a good lineup and second half push. WE are likely going to be one of the bottom playoff teams if they can maintain even most of their current form.

Invictus punt a game A LOT in situations like this  don't forget that.

Moneyline: Team WE +312 (0.5 units)

Spread: Team WE +1.5 @ +101 (1.5 units)

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NA LCS Summer 2019 - Week 8 Day 2


I know they sort of threw but OpTic looked incredibly good against Team Liquid yesterday. If you took the nameplates off of that game you'd think you were watching FunPlus vs Invictus. I was extremely impressed with both squads. Liquids proactive defense is remarkable and OpTic managed to jump out on them in what looked like a game that was going to be a sub 25 minute smash. Golden Guardians aren't in the same ballpark as Liquid much less the same country at this point. Unless OpTic completely tilt off that loss today I expect them to completely rage stomp a struggling Golden Guardians. I also think the bottom lane mismatch is just so drastic and after seeing what Arrow and Crown did to TL's incredibly good bottom lane I can't imagine the whooping they're going to put on FBI and Huhi. For some reason my book is limiting me on this match but I'd actually make an exception to my three unit best of one limit on this match and up to four or five unless you think OpTic are going to tilt off. They looked really REALLY good even though they lost.

Moneyline: OpTic -152 (2 units, BOOK MAX)

This is a momentum bet. TSM trending down, 100 Thieves trening up. These odds seem a bit too far apart.

Moneyline: 100 Thieves +170 (0.5 units)

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Parlays:

Parlay (2): OpTic ML + DAM/JAG Map 1 UNDER 33 @ +212 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): OpTic ML + DAM/JAG Map 2 UNDER 33 @ +212 (1 unit)

Parlay (3): OpTic ML + DAM/JAG Map 1 UNDER 33 + WE +1.5 @ +614 (0.5 units)

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