LCK Summer 2019 - Week 6 Day 2
Game 1: 41:08, 15 kills to 3 kills
Game 2: 30:38, 11 kills to 4 kills
Game 1: 26:37, 14 kills to 3 kills
Game 2: 27:53, 11 kills to 2 kills
Game 1: 30:39, 11 kills to 1 kill
Game 2: 25:57, 11 kills to 5 kills
These are SK Telecom's last three matches against Gen.G, Hanwha Life, and and KT Rolster. That's six in a row under 18.5 kills and five out of six under 31 minutes against bad teams that are all better than Jin Air. You'd say regression to the mean should kick in at some point but I tend to read this as SKT are in full on New England Patriots "FU" mode and unfortuantely for Jin Air they're in the way of the warpath. SKT are more or less in a situation, because of their Spring Split championship and 90 circuit points, where they have to simply make the playoffs and it would stave off a lot of scenarios that would prevent them from having at least the 3rd Korean seed for Worlds. I won't go into all of them right now but getting into playoffs would help a lot and winning a round of playoffs to get the 40 circuit points would eliminate a lot more. The point I'm getting at is that SKT are motivated and that they are, by no means, guaranteed a spot at Worlds just because they won the Spring split. Combine that with the slow start they had to this season and SKT are in full on tryhard mode right now.
I'm going super heavy on the unders here both as a trend play and because I think SKT are going to just speed run Jin Air and I don't think they can afford to use subs and punt a game here. Don't be fooled by Jin Air/SKT series of the past this is going to be a biblical beatdown.
(from Leaguepedia)
O/U: Map 1 UNDER 31:00 @ -125 (3 units)
O/U: Map 1 UNDER 18.5 total kills @ -116 (3 units)
O/U: Map 2 UNDER 31:00 @ -125 (3 units)
O/U: Map 2 UNDER 18.5 total kills @ -116 (3 units)
The last team these two teams met it was a bit of an awkward and blood game one followed by a relatively routine whooping in game two. I expect more of the game two vibe this time around. The counterargument to this is that KT Rolster are currently tied with Hanwha Life and could potentially face relegations once more without some wins before season end. There's a chance they're extra motivated for this matchup and they do actually lineup well against Afreeca on paper with their strong solo lanes. The difference to me is that Kiin has been so much better than Smeb and Dread has outperformed any iteration of KT's jungle situation. I'm playing this one aggressive. We're getting plus money on Afreeca to sweep which I think is far and away the most likely outcome here. Afreeca are also going to be motivated with Gen.G and SKT biting at their heels for the 5th playoff spot in a ridiculously competitive LCK Summer. A couple weeks ago I had Afreeca as a dark horse to win the Summer split. That hasn't changed. I think this team is doing a lot of things right and their playstyle can punish this region so so badly if they're executing well. I think Afreeca are just as good as most of the top table teams if not better than some. Love me some Afreeca Freecs!
Spread: Afreeca -1.5 @ +102 (4.5 units BOOK MAX)
O/U: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -109 (1 unit)
O/U: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -109 (1 unit)
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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 7 Day 4
OMG are perplexing. Their individual talent makes me want to believe that this team should at least be competitive compared to teams like LGD and Vici. I keep billing this team as one that "punches up" to their competition. That's been the case in about half their games. OMG are still very inconsistent but I think they've shown us they're a bit better than a Vici team that looks like it's going to finish dead last in the LPL. I'm not sure if and when Vici will get a match win this split and against who that will be but I am fairly certain that they are the worst team in the LPL. That's not to say they haven't shown some spunk this split. They managed to take a game off of Invictus on Monday, something that we've grown all too acustomed to IG doing against bad teams, and took a game off of TOP in week one was well. Southwind is a quality player and one of the better supports in the league but I just don't see any other redeeming characteristic to this team. They finished the Spring split with a 2-13 match record and 12-28 game score. Currently they're 0-8 and 4-16. Trends would tell you that this team is going to win at some point so I wouldn't fault you for taking Vici here. I just have a lot of hope for this OMG squad and we now know that Icon is back in for this match (via Twitter). I just don't see how Vici deal with Curse and Icon, two budding stars with a lot to prove with their solo lanes and jungle setup currently.
I'd advise you not to tail on this as this is more of a gut feeling/eye test bet. OMG should sweep this but they're a little to inconsistent for me to like that so I'm... I can't believe I'm doing this but I'm going to lay -200 and take OMG. This line opened at -244 so I actually think we're getting some value with OMG. I could totally understand taking Vici here. This is essentially their Super Bowl (that or RW or LGD). They also have more roster continuity but I'm placing a chip on the stars to perform here.
Moneyline: OMG -200 (3 units)
Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +134 (1 unit)
TOP Starters: Moyu, Aki, Knight, Loken, QiuQiu
LGD Starters: Lies, Kui, Yuuki, Kramer, RD
Aki and QiuQiu debut in spectacular fashion completely dominating JDG. They weren't carried by the TOP starters either they were creating plays on their own and looked phenominal. Moyu got some play in two games at Rift Rivals and played three games during the Spring split but has yet to play in the Summer besides Rift Rivals. LGD is starting Kui in his third game this split at jungle and moving their jungler RD to support in what I can only call weird flex but ok.
TOP just wiped the floor with JDG and that was with two emergency subs at jungle and support. Aki and QiuQiu looked very impressive in their debut (QiuQiu on an off role, he plays ADC). I was really impressed to see them so quickly and seemlessly integrate. TOP honestly looked like the same team and that's really impressive not just for the subs but for the three starters to look like nothing was different. The point is TOP are legit and whether or not they start subs or not no longer scares me. They weren't a team that did that much anyway (this was the first time this season) but I'm not confident that even if they rest the starters against bad teams like LGD that TOP won't miss a beat. TOP are also one of these teams that we label as one that doesn't take games off against bad teams like Invictus or RNG tend to do sometimes. The style they play isn't as volatile and is much more consistent by design.
I put this wager in earlier this week and while I'm a bit scared we get a more down to earth performance from the two rookies Aki and QiuQiu in their second outing, I'm actually a bit more concerned with Moyu. TOP should still be able to take care of this. LGD aren't marching out their main lineup either and honestly LGD don't even really have a main lineup to speak of with all the turmoil within their roster this season. Knight and Loken are still worlds better than any other player in this game and I'm rather respectful of Yuuki and Kramer. Knight and Loken are world class, elite players and I think with the performance we saw from Aki and QiuQiu we don't need to consider them a liability. I'm not hedging this and even though I think one of these games could get competitive I think TOP are still very likely to 2-0 this so we're going to let it ride.
LGD Starters: Lies, Kui, Yuuki, Kramer, RD
Aki and QiuQiu debut in spectacular fashion completely dominating JDG. They weren't carried by the TOP starters either they were creating plays on their own and looked phenominal. Moyu got some play in two games at Rift Rivals and played three games during the Spring split but has yet to play in the Summer besides Rift Rivals. LGD is starting Kui in his third game this split at jungle and moving their jungler RD to support in what I can only call weird flex but ok.
TOP just wiped the floor with JDG and that was with two emergency subs at jungle and support. Aki and QiuQiu looked very impressive in their debut (QiuQiu on an off role, he plays ADC). I was really impressed to see them so quickly and seemlessly integrate. TOP honestly looked like the same team and that's really impressive not just for the subs but for the three starters to look like nothing was different. The point is TOP are legit and whether or not they start subs or not no longer scares me. They weren't a team that did that much anyway (this was the first time this season) but I'm not confident that even if they rest the starters against bad teams like LGD that TOP won't miss a beat. TOP are also one of these teams that we label as one that doesn't take games off against bad teams like Invictus or RNG tend to do sometimes. The style they play isn't as volatile and is much more consistent by design.
I put this wager in earlier this week and while I'm a bit scared we get a more down to earth performance from the two rookies Aki and QiuQiu in their second outing, I'm actually a bit more concerned with Moyu. TOP should still be able to take care of this. LGD aren't marching out their main lineup either and honestly LGD don't even really have a main lineup to speak of with all the turmoil within their roster this season. Knight and Loken are still worlds better than any other player in this game and I'm rather respectful of Yuuki and Kramer. Knight and Loken are world class, elite players and I think with the performance we saw from Aki and QiuQiu we don't need to consider them a liability. I'm not hedging this and even though I think one of these games could get competitive I think TOP are still very likely to 2-0 this so we're going to let it ride.
Spread: TOP -1.5 @ -143 (4 units)
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LEC Summer 2019 - Week 5 Day 1
Figured I'd discuss the Fnatic/Rogue game since that's the talk of the town with the news of Rekkles sitting for the day and Nemesis moving to ADC to allow MagiFelix to start a match. There are a few angles at play here. No this does not mean Rekkles is being phased out. No it doesn't mean he's done, he's literally starting again Saturday as per their announcement. This is simply a chance for them to see their developmental players on the stage while they're in a comfortable place in the standings and with some time before playoffs. I also think people tend to overrate substitutes being in. Sometimes the subs are extra dialed in because it's a chance to earn a job somewhere. Sometimes they're just fine players. And still other times, like in the case of Fnatic, the position they're playing isn't as big a factor. Look, Fnatic have a long and storied history of exceptional carry players mostly Febiven, Caps, and Rekkles. Rekkles is the entrenched veteran star but the truth is this iteration of Fnatic is fascilitated by top, jungle, and support. Fnatic haven't been a carry centric team all calendar year and even last year. There is a difference between having good carries and being carry centric. Splyce and Vitality are carry centric, Fnatic are not.
The reason I'm saying all of this is that I think people are too quickly jumping to the automatic conclusion that this is a lock for Rogue. Rogue have looked good, Fnatic are shifting a position and starting a minor league player. It's understandable people have this reaction. I'm simply telling you that the carry roles on Fnatic are very plug and play. It's not a high demand position for that team and I expect Fnatic likely won't miss a beat. THAT SAID.... I am on Rogue here. I was on Rogue for half a unit before this news broke simply based on momentum and line value for a team that's playing confident and looking improved. I'm adding just one unit to my play on this. I'm not going berserk. I actually think Fnatic still have a good chance to win this game in fact I'd say they might be favored still but given the situation and the odds I'm still going to take Rogue.
Moneyline: Rogue +276 (1.5 units, 0.5 early, 1 add on)
I'm also taking Vitality at +103. We talked about it on the podcast but Vitality are going to remain competitive and improve regardless of whether or not they make playoffs this split. Oh, and by the way, they're currently tied for the 6th spot so let's not rule that out so fast. I think SK Gaming are stagnant and Vitality are improving and will end up somewhere in that 3-6 range we had them at before the season started. Schalke are a team I was high on but they too seem to be stagnating, the difference is that they have good enough players that they'll likely still be one of the better teams in the league. I have these two teams rated evenly. It's a bit agnostic to their performance this split. Before the season started I had them more or less even. I also think that stylistically Schalke have trouble with teams like Vitality that force the issue early. I like the dogs for a unit here.
Moneyline: Vitality +103 (1 unit)
John made a really good point on the podcast about how Origen tend to handle bad teams even if we don't trust them to beat the elite teams. That's exactly what a good 3rd-5th place team does most of the time. Origen are very by the book and consistent and SK Gaming to me have looked worse than the three wins they've accrued this split. I actually think SK look like one of the bottom teams in the LEC. Consistent and good against overrated and poor I'm going to take Origen laying the -204 here for my best of one max three units. It feels kind of bad to be honest but I'm confident it's the right side.
Moneyline: Origen -204 (3 units)
(UPDATE: I realized I accidentally had this wager in twice so... I guess we're 6 units on Origen!)
I could see the argument for putting a lottery ticket on Excel at +554. That's a pretty obscene number for a best of one but I'm just going to pass it. Hard to bet against G2. I'm going to just pass on Spyce/Misfits but if you think the new Misfits lineup can surprise then go for it. I also think if you look forward to Saturday that you should probably consider your narrative. If you think Misfits new lineup is good and takes down Splyce then you're going to lose line value on them Saturday so bet it now. If you think they're good enough to win Saturday but lose against Splyce maybe just wait and you could get some points your way.
No wager (lean Excel ML)
No wager (Splyce/Misfits)
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Parlays:
Parlay (2): Afreeca ML + TOP ML @ -179 (5 units)
Parlay (2): Afreeca -1.5 + TOP -1.5 @ +243 (2 units)
Parlay (3): SKT -1.5 + Afreeca -1.5 + TOP -1.5 @ +305 (1 unit)
Eastern Weekend Slate Favorites ML Parlay (7):
Afreeca ML vs KT + TOP ML + Kingzone ML + Griffin ML + Afreeca ML vs JAG + Sandbox ML + SKT ML @ +407 (1 unit)
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LEC Summer 2019 - Week 5 Day 1
Figured I'd discuss the Fnatic/Rogue game since that's the talk of the town with the news of Rekkles sitting for the day and Nemesis moving to ADC to allow MagiFelix to start a match. There are a few angles at play here. No this does not mean Rekkles is being phased out. No it doesn't mean he's done, he's literally starting again Saturday as per their announcement. This is simply a chance for them to see their developmental players on the stage while they're in a comfortable place in the standings and with some time before playoffs. I also think people tend to overrate substitutes being in. Sometimes the subs are extra dialed in because it's a chance to earn a job somewhere. Sometimes they're just fine players. And still other times, like in the case of Fnatic, the position they're playing isn't as big a factor. Look, Fnatic have a long and storied history of exceptional carry players mostly Febiven, Caps, and Rekkles. Rekkles is the entrenched veteran star but the truth is this iteration of Fnatic is fascilitated by top, jungle, and support. Fnatic haven't been a carry centric team all calendar year and even last year. There is a difference between having good carries and being carry centric. Splyce and Vitality are carry centric, Fnatic are not.
The reason I'm saying all of this is that I think people are too quickly jumping to the automatic conclusion that this is a lock for Rogue. Rogue have looked good, Fnatic are shifting a position and starting a minor league player. It's understandable people have this reaction. I'm simply telling you that the carry roles on Fnatic are very plug and play. It's not a high demand position for that team and I expect Fnatic likely won't miss a beat. THAT SAID.... I am on Rogue here. I was on Rogue for half a unit before this news broke simply based on momentum and line value for a team that's playing confident and looking improved. I'm adding just one unit to my play on this. I'm not going berserk. I actually think Fnatic still have a good chance to win this game in fact I'd say they might be favored still but given the situation and the odds I'm still going to take Rogue.
Moneyline: Rogue +276 (1.5 units, 0.5 early, 1 add on)
I'm also taking Vitality at +103. We talked about it on the podcast but Vitality are going to remain competitive and improve regardless of whether or not they make playoffs this split. Oh, and by the way, they're currently tied for the 6th spot so let's not rule that out so fast. I think SK Gaming are stagnant and Vitality are improving and will end up somewhere in that 3-6 range we had them at before the season started. Schalke are a team I was high on but they too seem to be stagnating, the difference is that they have good enough players that they'll likely still be one of the better teams in the league. I have these two teams rated evenly. It's a bit agnostic to their performance this split. Before the season started I had them more or less even. I also think that stylistically Schalke have trouble with teams like Vitality that force the issue early. I like the dogs for a unit here.
Moneyline: Vitality +103 (1 unit)
John made a really good point on the podcast about how Origen tend to handle bad teams even if we don't trust them to beat the elite teams. That's exactly what a good 3rd-5th place team does most of the time. Origen are very by the book and consistent and SK Gaming to me have looked worse than the three wins they've accrued this split. I actually think SK look like one of the bottom teams in the LEC. Consistent and good against overrated and poor I'm going to take Origen laying the -204 here for my best of one max three units. It feels kind of bad to be honest but I'm confident it's the right side.
Moneyline: Origen -204 (3 units)
(UPDATE: I realized I accidentally had this wager in twice so... I guess we're 6 units on Origen!)
I could see the argument for putting a lottery ticket on Excel at +554. That's a pretty obscene number for a best of one but I'm just going to pass it. Hard to bet against G2. I'm going to just pass on Spyce/Misfits but if you think the new Misfits lineup can surprise then go for it. I also think if you look forward to Saturday that you should probably consider your narrative. If you think Misfits new lineup is good and takes down Splyce then you're going to lose line value on them Saturday so bet it now. If you think they're good enough to win Saturday but lose against Splyce maybe just wait and you could get some points your way.
No wager (lean Excel ML)
No wager (Splyce/Misfits)
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Parlays:
Parlay (2): Afreeca ML + TOP ML @ -179 (5 units)
Parlay (2): Afreeca -1.5 + TOP -1.5 @ +243 (2 units)
Parlay (3): SKT -1.5 + Afreeca -1.5 + TOP -1.5 @ +305 (1 unit)
Eastern Weekend Slate Favorites ML Parlay (7):
Afreeca ML vs KT + TOP ML + Kingzone ML + Griffin ML + Afreeca ML vs JAG + Sandbox ML + SKT ML @ +407 (1 unit)
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