LCK Summer 2019 - Week 5 Day 4
These odds are too out of range to do anything with except include in parlays. I could understand a bet on Jin Air +1.5 or the exact Sandbox 2-1 at these numbers but I'm just going to pass. Sandbox should win this and I'd think after an embarassing loss to DAMWON that they'll be looking for someone to stomp on to feel better. That said, you could argue that they spent the majority of their prep time on the DAMWON match and didn't look at Jin Air as much. It's been a couple of days so I don't think that's the case and even if it was I don't trust Jin Air to even be good enough to take advantage. The other pro-Jin Air angle is that if you think Sandbox don't correct their egregious draft approach based on the results of the DAMWON match then I actually love a Jin Air bet here.
No wager
I feel like I should be on a side here but truthfully I don't know what to expect out of this match. Kingzone looked sluggish in game one but then figured it out and slammed the door shut while DAMWON just completely ran over a Sandbox team with a neat game one draft and took advantage of an awful game two draft by Sandbox.
DAMWON, while still clumsy at times, are looking more improved by the day. Earlier in the year we took DAMWON to beat Kingzone on the basis of their solo laners presenting a unique problem for Kingzone to solve and while that wasn't the entire reason they won that match it did play a role. I don't think anything has changed here so the question is whether or not we like these numbers. My initial thought was that I couldn't say no to Kingzone being an underdog against more or less anybody but DAMWON are firing on all cylinders right now and that's a pretty hard thing to ignore. I tend to zig when everyone is zagging because that's where the value is but I'm not going to deny DAMWON's momentum and quality of play right now. Do I think they were gifted a win by Sandbox in game two? Yes. Does that mean they didn't look good at Rift Rivals, before Rift Rivals, and do exactly what you're supposed to do when a team hands you a free win like Sandbox did? No. DAMWON are the real deal and I think taking them here isn't necessarily a slight against Kingzone as much as it is an endorsement. This is a difficult stylistic matchup for Kingzone just like it was the first time around and I don't think DAMWON was playing nearly as well then as they are now.
This is one of the few times I'm going to ride a hype train but I think it's deserved. Kingzone aren't as equipped as teams like Griffin, SKT, Afreeca, and honestly, despite the loss, Sandbox to combat what DAMWON brings to the table with their solo lane talent. For as impressive as Rascal, Cuzz, and Naehyun have been this split I think they're just outmatched here and it's going to be a tough thing to overcome without some creativity.
Moneyline: DAMWON -156 (3 units)
Parlay (2): Sandbox -1.5 + DAM ML @ +102 (2.5 units)
Parlay (2): Sandbox -1.5 + DAM ML @ +102 (2.5 units)
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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 6 Day 2
If you believe in Rift Rivals hangovers the Chinese teams had to travel but did get some extra time off compared to the LCK. FunPlus and Invictus both played in the tournament and I'd say played well regardless of the results. Vici and OMG look like two of the worst teams in the league. I think it's a totally fine spot to bet the dogs to take a game here but I'll be passing over than a very small 0.1 unit wager on the "double hangover" parlay. I don't hate the individual +1.5's either but I'm going to pass on that.
"Hangover" Parlay (2): Vici +1.5 + OMG +1.5 @ +608 (0.1 unit)
"New Years Day Hangover" Parlay (2): Vici ML + OMG ML @ +3601 (0.1 unit)
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LEC Summer 2019 - Week 4 Day 2
I didn't really have any selections for Europe coming off the break. I'm having a hard time getting a read with so much down time but I tend to like underdogs with extra time. Usually bad teams can cover more ground then mediocre or good teams can in the same amount of time just by nature of amount of improvement that can be made. I like Rogue, Excel, and Splyce quite a bit and even Schalke though not as much. All of these will be half unit wagers and a quarter unit on Schalke. I don't actually think these odds are even that far off but I think the combination of time off and potential lessons learned from internatinoal film could perhaps help these underdogs in a best of one in the first week back.
Moneyline: Excel +221 (0.5 units)
Moneyline: Rogue +206 (0.5 units)
Moneyline: Schalke +269 (0.25 units)
Moneyline: Splyce +212 (0.5 units)
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NA LCS Summer 2019 - Week 6 Day 1
I've hammered Liquid already at -189 for one unit more than my best of one limit up to 4 units. Coming off of a rough week last week I think Liquid have learned their lessons and while they might not change, they'll certainly adjust. CLG have looked really solid and clean but the style and form they've played this season isn't one that I think punishes how Liquid want to play. I also think Liquid are just way better than the rest of NA and anytime we can get them at a remotely bettable number we're just going to fire on it.
Moneyline: Liquid -189 (4 units)
The other game on this slate that I absolutely love is FlyQuest +134 vs Golden Guardians. Not only are we likely getting the academy bot lane of FBI and Huhi again but I just think these teams are kind of on opposite trajectories and this line should be closer to even. It's not that FBI and Huhi were bad but I love the spot for FlyQuest here and this should likely be even money instead of this. I'm firing a best of one max three units on FlyQuest here. They might not make playoffs but they'll be competitive the rest of the split, this team has too much pride and I think they're trending up while Golden Guardians are sort of floundering.
Moneyline: FlyQuest +134 (3 units)
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