Betting: July 31st (LPL)

LPL Summer 2019 - Week 9 Day 3

This might be a bit oversimplified but LNG against elite teams this season: 0-2 vs RNG, 0-2 vs TOP, 0-2 vs EDG. If you want to count their week one bout against the non-Baolan bad Invictus they won that 2-0 but I wouldn't call that iteration of IG an elite team. The point I'm making is that LNG are a good team that isn't going to be able to punch up to the level of the top teams in the LPL. FunPlus have lost only four games this entire split, two to Invictus, one to Victory Five and one to LGD. You could make the argument that they're "due for regression" to the mean or something along those lines and LNG are a better team than both V5 and LGD but I'm taking the -1.5 here. FunPlus look like one of the best teams in the world. They're certainly unorthodox but this team has somehow been getting better and better over the course of the year. Their gold and damage metrics are absolutely bonkers, GimGoon, their "weakest" player has seemingly broken through his skill ceiling and is absolutely dumpstering people, and with DoinB's leadership I think we have ourselves a true world championship contender.

If you want to compare teams, something I don't put a lot of weight on but it's worth mentioning, FunPlus absolutely routed WE (albeit at a low point in their season) in just over 50 minutes and I'd consider WE and LNG about even. FunPlus also took a little over 51 total minutes to whoop on BiliBili. I think you see what I'm trying to say.

 -154 is actually a value if you ask me. It is the late season LPL which we've been burned on pretty badly before but FunPlus haven't been one to take games off this season and I don't see that changing. This team has the fire in their belly and have been hyper focused all season long. Take FunPlus to stomp LNG.

Spread: FunPlus -1.5 maps @ -154 (6 units)

"You disappoint me String, I had such fucking hopes for us."

-Jimmy to Stringer from The Wire

OMG looked like they were finally turning the corner. Curse and Icon were the two elite solo lanes talents a team needs to keep up in the LPL, they added Kryst4l, Penguin looked like he was finally coming into his own as a jungler. The team had an identity and their prospects appeared to be meeting expectations and then they started playing World6. I don't want to blame World6 entirely for OMG's problems but just the idea of management and coaching staff disrupting the good thing OMG had going through the first couple weeks of the season just infuriates me. OMG optimistically could have challenged for a playoff spot and now they're battling to not be last place. 

I'll admit that OMG have had a ridiculously hard schedule, perhaps the hardest in any region over the past few weeks but after getting completely dominated by the abysmal Vici Gaming the other day I've lose all hope for this team until next season. It's incredibly frustrating because the players are there but this constant carousel at jungle and in the bot lane completely ruined any momentum this team had. I just hope this doesn't ruin the confidence and careers of Curse and Icon who appeared to be ready to take the next step.

EDG haven't been perfect this season but I think they're pretty firmly rooted in the top five LPL teams. To me FunPlus, RNG, and Invictus (eventually) are the top tier, and TOP (perhaps they're also top tier) and EDG are that tier 1.5. The top five teams are all significantly better than the entire rest of the league. EDG have had some ups and downs this season including losses to Rogue Warriors, a game punted to LGD, and a loss to WE but overall they've taken care of business against the bottom tier teams. EDG are starting their main lineup and I actually think we're getting a lot of value here at -179 with EDG coming off of two losses. Those losses were to FunPlus and RNG, two teams we'll never fault anyone for losing to.

I'm firing heavy on both of these tomorrow. I know I got absolutely crushed in the late summer LPL last year doing this but this is a tail of two matches where the teams are worlds apart and I think FunPLus and EDG both sweep even on a mediocre day for them.

Spread: EDG -1.5 @ -179 (6 units)

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Parlay:

Parlay (2): FunPlus -1.5 + EDG -1.5 @+157 (3 units)

Parlay (3): FunPlus -1.5 + EDG -1.5 + Griffin ML (Friday) @ +299 (1 unit)

"Look ahead choice selections" Parlay (5): 

FunPlus -1.5 + EDG -1.5 + Griffin ML (Friday) + Team WE ML (Sunday) + DAMWON -1.5 (Sunday) @ +796 (1 unit)