Betting: July 10th (LCK)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 5 Day 1

Korea looked excellent at Rift Rivals. I've been trying to tell everyone that the region has been slowly and steadily making adaptations but even I didn't expect them to perform that well. I don't think there will be as much of a tournament hangover since it took place in Korea and because SKT specifically need the wins right now but we'll talk about that in a bit. Today is a MASSIVE potential day and we have not one but TWO PICKS OF THE WEEK IN ONE DAY!!

After MSI we saw a bit of a hangover from the Korean teams upon their return home with some very generalized and boring preparation and slightly less sharp play resulting in a couple sloppy losses, or in SKT's cast a pseudo meltdown. The difference this time around is that Rift Rivals Asia took place in Korea so there isn't the matter of jet lag. Also Korea looked exceptional at this tournament taking down the LPL in the exhibition. Kingzone were perhaps the most impressive of the bunch defeating the formidable FunPlus Phoenix in the group stage. 

Now KT Rolster have had plenty of time to prepare and while I expect this team to improve in much the same way I expected FlyQuest to in NA, it still doesn't necessarily make them a great team just one that was underperforming. The difference is that I just think KT isn't good. This team STILL hasn't fixed their biggest fundamental problem which is closing games and they've done absolutely nothing to make adaptations for this weakness. Kingzone should be able to take care of this and while it wouldn't surprise me to see KT steal a game here I'm not going to say no to firing heavy at these odds. Kingzone look like a world class team and while I think they'll drop games here and there this team has to be feeling tremendously confident coming off of this tournament and got to face some competition that is vastly superior to KT Rolster. I'm going the max 3.5 units on the spread at -122 and even adding on another 2.5 units to the 2-0 at far worse odds for a grand total of a 6 unit early pick of the week.

Spread: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ -122 (3.5 units BOOK MAX)

Prop: Exact Kingzone 2-0 @ -152 (2.5 units)

Remarkably similar situations for both SKT and Kingzone coming off of great performances at Rift Rivals to face bottom half teams in their first game back. SKT and Kingzone are not teams that I expect to have let down games. They're what I like to call "tryhard" teams. You could argue SKT got their tournament buff and might come back or try subs or something but I think SKT are going to mean business here as they push for a playoff spot after their abysmal start. SKT looked close to full form at Rift Rivals with Faker looking as confident as ever and the full lineup working well together. I also liked their drafts a lot more at this tournament and I think this patch works a lot better for them than any other this year. Hanwha are bad. There isn't a whole lot more to say about that and while you could say Lava has had his moments this season he's not up to in the zone Faker, very few are. 

Simply put this is a slam dunk especially because unlike Kingzone, SKT absolutely need to start winning games to make a push for playoffs to secure enough circuit points to guarentee a worlds berth. We're firing the exact same play on the exact same odds for two situations I think are remarkably similar. I'm slightly more confident in the SKT play but they're both locks to me.

Spread: SK Telecom -1.5 maps @ -122 (3.5 units BOOK MAX)

Prop: SK Telecom 2-0 @ -152 (2.5 units)

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Parlays:

With two book max plays you can expect me to be heavy on parlay exposure as well. This day has absolutely massive potential for us. There are a TON of heavy heavy favorites facing bad teams this week and while the "classic" situation of let down games looks like a real possibility we're actually going to roll the dice on Invictus as well since they're so far behind in the playoff race just like SKT and finally have their full roster back together.

Parlay (2): Kingzone -1.5 + SKT -1.5 @ +231 (2 units)

Parlay (3): Kingzone -1.5 + SKT -1.5 + Afreeca -1.5 vs Jin Air @ +400 (1.5 units)

Parlay (4): Kingzone -1.5 + SKT -1.5 + Afreeca -1.5 + Griffin -1.5 @ +621 (0.5 units)

"Long Week" Parlay (6):

Kingzone -1.5 + SKT -1.5 + Afreeca -1.5 + Griffin -1.5 + FunPlus -1.5 + Invictus -1.5 

@ +1443 (0.5 units)