Betting: July 17th ( LPL)

LPL Summer 2019 - Week 7 Day 3

This is not an overreaction to LNG's decisive loss to EDG. I put this bet in before that match even took place. I've talked a lot about LNG and how I don't necessarily think they're a bad team. In fact they've rather impressed me this split and I don't think their hot start was a fluke. That said I do think that they're going to regress and that this team will end up somewhere in the 7-9th range in the LPL. They had a few surprise wins against good teams but aren't exactly a clean or perfect squad. They make a lot of mistakes. 

OMG are sort of in the opposite camp. They're a team most people were down on but they added top laner Curse who looks to be a budding star and in combination with their star mid laner Icon now have duel threat solo lanes that are wreaking havoc on their enemies. Curse looks good... like really really good and Icon we were high on last season. I think OMG are on the up and up and might challenge for a playoff spot. OMG also happen to be a team that is rather proactive. I like this quite a bit because it gives them a better chance to upset stronger teams than say a team like Victory Five who rely more on straight up laning power. If OMG could clean their macro play and decision making up a little I'd actually like this team as a favorite to make playoffs. They remind me quite a bit of DAMWON, perhaps not as good as DAMWON but the idea of individually gifted players coming together as they figure it out is intriguing to me and I like them as upset kings. This team can only get better.

To me these are two teams trending opposite directions. I'm not saying LNG are going to crash and burn but I do think they're going to start losing. OMG are looking to progress up the standings if they can keep this momentum up and continually improve. By the season's end I think these two teams will be right near each other in the standings battling for a playoff spot. So why is this line this far apart? Perception. This is an absolutely obscene value to me because I actually think this matchup is very VERY close to 50/50. If I was handicapping this game I'd have LNG something like -125 or -130. They're the better and more consistent team so maybe I'd bump that up to -140 but I absolutely LOVE OMG to upset here. The spot is great with both teams trending opposite directions and OMG are built to have spike performances and I think this could be one. As good as Plex has been this season since coming over from Korea I think Icon is one of the young players on these lower ranked teams that people aren't respecting yet. Icon is really REALLY good and I actually think with the way Curse has been performing in his first few games he could potentially stomp on Flandre. The bototm lane I'll give to LNG no matter what OMG marches out but I think the top side of the map for OMG could potentially just run away with a few games. I love OMG to take a game here and am going to put a unit on them to win this outright. This is a classic case of record creating a deception. LNG are good but not great. OMG look bad but should be significantly better moving forward with the changes and momentum they've gained recently.

Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ -139 (2 units)

Moneyline: OMG +211 (1 unit)

The other day we took the Rogue Warriors moneyline against Victory Five citing the spot and momentum for RW and expected regression for Victory Five. Rogue Warriors didn't exactly look great in this series but did manage to take a game. Victory Five didn't really do a lot to create advantages on their own they were just sort of spoon fed to them from RW for the most part. Victory Five are very similar to JDG in that their solo lanes are where they get the majority of their advantages. Those that don't know, V5 are more or less running two solo lanes instead of dedicated top and mid laners. Windy and Mole have been performing adequately in this situation and it presents a unique challenge for certain teams in the draft however I think this is more solvable than people are giving it credit for. They haven't really played a tank in any role and while tank top laners aren't exactly a meta decision at the moment for most professional teams I think it's pretty safe to say that this isn't as "unpredictable" as it seems so let's all cool the jets on these "innovators."

Victory Five have played, in my opinion, two and a half difficult matchups so far this season. One was FunPlus who they impressively took a game off of and the other was BiliBili who they were completely destroyed by. Coincidentally BiliBili are built in much the same way EDG are. The half game was Invictus without Baolan and Victory Five defeated them 2-1 but as we all remember that IG squad looked checked out and just going through the motions. Nonetheless a noteworthy win. The point I'm making is the Victory Five haven't exactly had the hardest schedule and while they might be solidifying themselves as a potential "better than the rest" squad and possibly a lower playoff seed they simply don't measure up to the elite teams in this league and Edward is an elite team right now.

Victory Five rarely creates on their own so I don't even like them to be able to punch up to higher competition unlike somebody like OMG who I think are proactive enough to create on their own and have exceptional solo lane talent. Windy and Mole are good not great and in a league with such deep solo lane talent that they're going to have a tough time doing their best JDG impression. Hell JDG are having a tough time doing a JDG impression. EDG just whooped on the similarly constructed and hot starting LNG and I fully expect them to lay the smack down on another team that's had a solid start that's due for regression in Victory Five. 

Spread: EDG -1.5 maps@ +119 (2 units, temp MAX)(initial bet)

Spread: EDG -1.5 maps@ +103 (0.5 units) add on

------------------

Parlays:

Parlay (2): EDG -1.5 + OMG +1.5 @ +249 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): EDG -1.5 + OMG ML @ +537 (0.5 unit)

Parlay (3): EDG ML + OMG +1.5 + Kingzone -1.5 (tmw) @ +290 (1 unit)

Parlay (3): EDG -1.5 + OMG +1.5 + Kingzone -1.5 @ +487 (0.5 unit)

"Long shot" Eastern Strong picks Parlay (7): 
EDG -1.5 + OMG +1.5 + Kingzone -1.5 + SKT -1.5 + Afreeca -1.5 + OMG ML (vs Vici) + TOP -1.5
@ +3645 (0.25 unit)