Betting: July 12th (LCK, LPL)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 5 Day 3

This is exactly the kind of spot the Gen.G blow me out so it should be noted that my track record against this team is sketchy. It comes with a Rift Rivals "hangover" potentially baked in here. Yesterday I was punished badly for betting narrative. Sandbox had the week off to plan for this match against DAMWON and had an uncharacteristically bad read especially in the game two draft where they selected Olaf late after selecting losing solo lanes. Game one was forgivable, DAMWON had a creative flex situation prepared and you can't expect everything but how Sandbox proceeded in game two, unless you think they were just shell-shocked from game one's draft, gave a glimpse into their coaching staff's draft priorities and I'm not a huge fan of it. Maybe they learn but I digress, this isn't about them. 

It wouldn't surprisem to see Gen.G take a game here at all but I'd be lying if I said that's what we should bet. For my money, Gen.G are the most stubborn professional team in any of the major region leagues. They simply DO NOT CARE what people think or what they're supposed to do. Sometimes that has served them well but in a metagame like this one they aren't going to be able to get away with the kind of Gangplank/Azir scaling obsession they have. Sure there is a chance Griffin do what Kingzone did in their first game back against KT and agree to a scaling gentlemen's handshake. After all that's exactly what all the good teams are doing against KT but Gen.G aren't KT. KT almost reliably punt leads while Gen.G just hand the lead over and hope to outsmart you late. Logic says that good, versatile teams like Griffin should see this and exploit the glaring weakness and attack early. 

For this reason, against every ounce of my gut feeling, mostly from bad tastes left in my mouth from Gen.G over the past few years, I'm slamming the Griffin 2-0 here. Gen.G are boring, predictable, and have shown that even with time off to prepare new ideas and strategies they're stubborn to a fault in their addiction to scaling. There's simply no way Griffin allow this to happen. Just as a thought experiment I'll list the things that I do have concerns about that would prevent this from happening:

- Griffin become fascinated with an FunPlus Phoenix style cheese comp to avoid laning and just can't exceute it with limited practice. 

- Griffin, with a lack of time to prepare, just stick to their win lane, win game approach and go even agaisnt scaling. (it should be noted that I think Griffin probably still win this because they have superior laners but still...)

- Gen.G for the first time in who knows how long actually come up with something fresh and creative and blow my bankroll out of the water like they've been known to do.

Spread: Griffin -1.5 @ -200 (5.5 units BOOK MAX)

O/U: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -130 (1 unit)

O/U: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -130 (1 unit)

The Telecom War hasn't had quite the luster that it has historically with the past few being absolute routes. If you watched KT's series against Kingzone there was visible frustration from Smeb and others after the match was over. KT still struggle to close games. They have a knack for finding ways to lose. SK Telecom on the otherhand looked clean and dominant, albeit against an awful Hanwha Life squad. SKT had a great Rift Rivals performance and look poised for a strong second half run. As I mentioned before Wednesday mornings matches, SKT are in no position to punt even individual games after their abysmal start. With a competitive middle of the table that looks to include Sandbox and Afreeca the 5th playoff seed isn't an automatic lock for anybody so SKT need to take care of business in these types of scenarios. 

I'm convinced by SKT's resurgence and KT's lack of ability to close even with a lead that I'm going to fire heavy on the SKT 2-0 as well. I know it's a recipe for disaster but SKT look like they've finally figured out that they can't just let teams run them over early. We have the added bonus of in that rare situation that KT actually get a sizeable early game lead they're just as likely as anyone to punt it. I also think that after seeing Kingzone drop a game to KT with a greedy draft that SKT won't make the same mistake. I feel really confident SKT sweep this. As sad as it is to say KT are a bad team with some good players and in Korea that isn't enough to do anything other than avoid last place. After punting against Kingzone, KT honestly looked defeated and a little tilted and it wouldn't surprise me to see a lethargic performance here.  To be clear, I'm not betting the narrative just because I'm mentioning it, I'm betting the recent film I've seen. SKT SHOULD run this series over.

Spread: SK Telecom -1.5 maps @ +102 (2.5 units BOOK MAX)

Prop: Exact SKT 2-0 @ -119 (2.5 units)

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I thought it was rather interesting as I looked at it but coming off the break during the Spring split (Jan 30th-Feb 15th, albeit for a holiday), the LPL opened that week with SIX 2-0 matches in a row and THIRTEEN of the EIGHTEEN matches that week ending in 2-0 sweeps one way or the other. The difference was that that was for a holiday with a lot of players likely spending at least some time away but I thought it was worth noting. 

LPL Summer 2019 - Week 6 Day 1

It's going to sound a bit whacky but I actually thought JDG looked better than I thought they would at Rift Rivals. That doesn't mean I think this team is good just that they exceeded my low expectations. So unlike Korea, China had to travel for Rift Rivals so the "hangover" narrative perhaps holds a little more weight. Team WE looked like a team in shambles with all the off the Rift drama going on but they managed to steal a game from TOP before the break and before that 2-0 an EDG team that apparently didn't show up to play League of Legends with their assbackwards drafts and starting Hope on the day to play what I would argue was his worst performance ever. A free win but hey, credit for taking what EDG handed you. I was really hoping we'd get plus odds on Team WE to take a game here. I like the spot quite a bit but unless this line gets down closer to 100 I'm just going to pass this game for a side but I am going to fire a unit on the OVER 2.5 maps at a surprising +128 number. I expect this to be a sloppy, fiesta type of a series and I'm willing to put a small wager on it going to three games. 

Prop: OVER 2.5 maps played @ +128 (1 unit)

This is an interesting one. Both of these teams have been rather disappointing to me but one much more so than the other and that's Dominus. I've said it a lot this season but Dominus look like a team without a leader. They actually remind me a bit of a less creative version of DAMWON. Very good players but with not a lot of direction. DAMWON have since cured many, but not all, of those problems while Dominus are still struggling. BiliBili are the opposite. They know who they are, they're disciplined and have strong leaders in ADD and Kuro dictating how they want games to be played. 

This feels like a spot for BiliBili to "get right." It's not that they've necessarily been bad this season. They've been beating the bad teams. They've dropped games in the process but they have beaten all the teams I'd consider worse than them. I think the disappointment comes in that I expected them to take a step forward and compete against the elite teams but they've struggled to do that so far. BiliBili should take care of business here but these odds, plus the week off, plus the fact that the LPL is a bit wild and I think Dominus are likely a little better than their record has me a bit tame on this wager. I'm taking the BiliBili sweep for just a unit.

Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ +100 (1 unit)

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LEC Summer 2019 - Week 4 Day 1:

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Parlays:

Parlay (2): GRF -1.5 + SKT -1.5 @ +203 (2 units)