Friday, July 19, 2019

Betting: July 20th and 21st (LCK, LPL, LEC, NA LCS)

I've had a very up and down week. My single best individual day on Sunday followed by one of my worst but hey sometimes that's the way the cookie crumbles. Can't be scared off, can't be overconfident.

I'll be away almost all day Saturday so I won't have time to writeo n Saturday so I'm just going to do the full weekend writeup in one post!

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LCK Summer 2019 - Week 6 Days 3 and 4


This is one of the marquee matchups in any region this weekend. Two of the best teams on the planet coming off of losses. I'm going to keep this short and sweet and advise you all not to tail blindly here. You should be on one side of this game or the other and there is plenty of justification for both.

Perhaps the primary justification for DAMWON is the "mismatch" between Nuguri and Sword. Sword has been a bit exposed for only playing the priority blind pick champions this season so it made Griffin's drafts a bit too predictable and in their two most recent series they were punished for it. The thing is we saw Sword playing a different role last season. What am I getting at? First, Sword is a more versatile player than I think people are giving him credit for. Second, he played that same role for the entirety of Spring split and didnt waver so we shouldn't rule out that he'll just continue to do so this split. What else does this mean? Well honestly did Griffin look bad by the end of the season in Spring? Outside of their playoff loss to SKT not at all. They were dominant.

I'm going to be on the Griffin side. Consider my flag planted.

I happen to think that this is STILL one of, if not the best team in the world and they were just adapting to a new patch and got punished for "safe" preparation instead of being proactive. I'll remind everyone that Griffin still have three of the best lanes (by metrics AND the eye test) on the planet. Like literally lanes in isolation against any lane anywhere in the world Griffin are probably winning. As a matter of fact do that thought experiment to yourself. Build your own super team. Ignore language barriers and build the three best lanes you possibly can. I bet Griffin are like 50/50 against that team maybe even winning. I mean absolutely no disrespect to DAMWON here at all. They also look like one of the best teams on the planet I just happen to think Griffin have fewer liabilities. 

This is a bit personal preference for me so, as I mentioned at the top, I'd advise not blind tailing here. The "value" is in DAMWON if you consider these two equal. This line should probably be something like -120 / +100 for Griffin (you could argue it should be that in favor of DAMWON). I'm betting Griffin getting no value and am basically wagering this as a gut feeling wager on Griffin. Tail if you like but I'd say just pick the side you like or don't bet this at all.

Moneyline: Griffin -161 (3 units)


This line opened at -227 / +167. Kingzone -1.5 @ +123.

If Gen.G could play the way they played game two against Sandbox every game then I'd be willing to change my tune on Gen.G.Gen.G look pretty good but they also haven't been punished at all in their recent matches. I don't know if that's a problem with the LCK or just this patch or a combination of the two or what but I haven't found Gen.G to be playing particularly great defense. They've been a bit more proactive in some games, like the game two I mentioned earlier but they've largely remained the same team with just overall better performances from individual players. Maybe that's enough. Maybe Gen.G is just diet Griffin now and they can just lane you to death but I'm not buying it.

Kingzone had an absolutely embarassing loss to Hanwha Life yesterday that blew a hole in mine and a few colleagues' bankrolls. They honestly looked like they were sleeping through this match but credit to Hanwha for probably their best performance this year. I actually thought earlier in the week that this could be a let down spot for Kingzone and that Gen.G could keep their LCK tour of beating teams that slack off cuz they're ahead in the standings (I'm exaggerating slightly but think about it...). Now that Kingzone had that wake up call against Hanwha AND Gen.G have been rolling of late I fully expect Kingzone to be game for this match.

I want to be careful not to just assume Kingzone are an elite team. I honestly expected them to finish this season making the playoffs but maybe at 4th or 5th after a blazing start but this team has continued to impress me (until yesterday). I don't want to forget just how good Kingzone have been. There is an argument for them as the best team in Korea. I might not agree with that but the point is they've earned enough respect to be considered.

I dodged two bullets with my embargo on Gen.G bets but I'm lifting it for this because I simply can't say no to this at this number. I actually think this is a value for Kingzone now. I was going to bet this last week at Kingzone -227... I might get blown out here but I'm willing to bet in a Gen.G game for this kind of value. Knowing them they'll prolly find a way to ruin me but I'm not going to abstain from this one it's just too juicy.

It's important for me to advise you all that I have an absolutely awful track record with Gen.G. For those that have followed me for awhile it's a bit of a meme at this point. Gen.G have caused more net losses for me than any other team BY FAR.

YOU'VE BEEN WARNED!

Moneyline: Kingzone -227 (5 units) (put in early last week)

Moneyline: Kingzone -164 (3 units) (add on)

Spread: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ +123 (2 units)(early last week)

Prop: Gen.G to win a map? NO @ +123 (0.5 units)(early)

Prop: Exact Kingzone 2-0 @ +134 (1.5 units)(add on)

Prop: Gen.G to win a map? NO @ +156 (0.5 units)(add on)

This looks really weird because I'm limited and these odds changed. At the current number I'd bet the total amount of these at that better, new number.


Kingzone ML 8 units

Kingzone to 2-0/-1.5/Gen.G to win a map NO combined total 4.5 units



Sometimes you catch a bad beat (like Kingzone against Hanwha) but other times there is some detail you missed and I think I was wrong about Afreeca this morning against KT Rolster because I was too blinded by how bad KT Rolster was and what I consider to be a good Afreeca team. There were a few angles to this.

First, I think Afreeca have been figured out a bit. It's not to say that they can't play through that but it's a factor that should at least put a chip in their armor. Senan is a liability on any support that isn't a tank and really he hasn't shown well on anything that isn't Nautilus or Galio. He's a specialist so that's going to happen. I assumed he'd get better over the year and develop his pool but that doesn't seem to be the case. The problem this is causing is that Afreeca are now in a rough spot drafting because with Yuumi and Lux still remaining the power pick supports, Afreeca are either forced to pick or ban them in a lot of situations or it limits what the rest of their draft can look like even if Senan "counters" with Naut or Galio. Alternatively other teams can also ban his picks and force them to ban Yuumi/Lux because they know he'll either be bad on it or not pick it meaning they can get it on the pick back from either side.

Second, the introduction of Mordekaiser is going to be another must pick/ban that Afreeca are going to have to consider because it stymies early pressure so much with his ability to stall from weakside and avoid dives. That's going to make Afreeca's uptempo, snowball style a lot tougher to pull off. For those that don't know, the new Mordekaiser is not only extremely hard for melee champions to play into but also extremely difficult to dive and punish without weird counterpicks. It's not a flawless champion but it's one that directly affects Afreeca's style and it's going to be yet another ban for them to have to consider on top of the above mentioned Yuumi/Lux situation with Senan.

TL:DR - New patch, new champion, and Senan being a liability (not a bad player just very linear) is going to make Afreeca's drafting AND their snowbally style really REALLY difficult moving forward. So I think we're going to need to knock them down a peg.

So I'm not betting this but I'm curious to see if this line goes down after Afreeca's absymal performance against KT this morning. If this gets into the -180 or better range I'll bet it but for now I'm going to just include this in a couple parlays. I know things are working against Afreeca and that Jin Air showed a little life against SKT this morning but honestly Jin Air have shown "a little life" against almost everyone this season and have nothing to show for it. I'm sorry Jin Air but I don't think you're going to take a series this season :-/ If they can't take a game with some of the leads they've had then I just don't think they understand the game at a high enough level to actually close one. I hope I'm wrong but I'll be betting against them until that happens. It's a shame too because their laners have been doing a decent job (besides TaNa who, on Mordekaiser, got solo killed by Khan around level 6 this morning which is something that should never happen). 


No wager (including the AF -1.5 in parlays)


Sandbox just had an embarassing loss to Gen.G not because losing to Gen.G is embarassing, quite the contrary in their current form, but in the manner they lost. Hanwha just had a surprise victory against Kingzone. This line hasn't moved yet but it almost definitely will when money starts coming in I just think people haven't looked ahead to Sunday yet. I love Sandbox to bounce back here. Hanwha just played their best series of the year and I'm not betting on them to repeat. Sandbox are going to back with a vengeance after how embarassed they were by Gen.G particularly in game two. They'll be surprisingly motivated for this game and I expect them to completely stomp HLE. I put this wager in earlier this week but I kind of love it even more now after the embarssment Sandbox experienced. We will get some value on this just wait for it but I'm going to be a heavy five units on the Sandbox sweep here. Sandbox aren't the #1 team in Korea but the'yre still an excellent team and Hanwha simply aren't. Don't be fooled by a couple weird series from these two squads.

WAIT FOR THE LINE TO MOVE IN OUR FAVOR BEFORE BETTING THIS I'm just putting this down now since I won't be here tomorrow.


Spread: Sandbox -1.5 @ -192 (5 units)


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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 7 Days 5 and 6


RW Holder has been impressive in the top lane and along with ZWuji have been leading RW to some competitive showings this season. I don't think Suning are that great a team. They're almost certainly the better one of these two but I love Rogue Warriors as heavy dogs against a mediocre team and think they're favored to take a game and perhaps this series and stun a still overrated Suning team.

This is primarily a value play but I think Rogue Warriors are a weaker team that punches up well and they have a couple players that run away with a game and hard carry in Holder and ZWuji. I like the dogs here.

Spread: Rogue Warriors +1.5 maps @ -156 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Rogue Warriors +185 (0.5 unit)


There are two feature matchups in the LPL this weekend between four of the top five teams. These are two of the best teams in the LPL but the rub here is that we haven't seen RNG since their last LPL match June 30th. They didn't go to Rift Rivals this year. The lineups have been announced and it's the full starters for both, as expected. It's really hard to gauge what we'll see here. On one hand RNG have seen some film from EDG on this patch and have had almost three full weeks to prepare for their second half push. On the other hand we have EDG who are looking in dominant form right now. 

My gut tells me the right side is RNG here. If you believe in "shaking off rust" vs "running hot" then take EDG because I actually think there is probably some value there. I think with both of these squads playing their best that its something like RNG -120 vs EDG +100 so just based on that you should take EDG but I can't help but think the off time is only going to help this veteran RNG squad. Combine that with the fact that they've already seen some of post RR EDG on film and can prepare specifically for this and it's pretty hard for me to feel confidently about EDG here. I'm going to take the RNG moneyline for a few units. This is another gut feeling call because I think the value is in EDG but it's extremely rare three weeks off in the middle of a season like this happens and it's a potentially distinct advantage for RNG. There is a chance this backfires and the "rust" aspect or running into a hot EDG team is just too much but I'm willing to bet on preparation especially with RNG against a good team and with experienced, intelligent veterans.

GUT FEELING BET TAIL AT YOUR OWN RISK

Moneyline: RNG -159 (4 units)


I bet this before the somewhat shocking news that Changhong is retiring. After three years primarily spent in the LDL he finally made it to the pro scene and had a really solid Spring split. He was struggling a lot this split with tanks mostly eliminated from the metagame but has decided to call it quits for now. Really alarming news because Dominus were already lacking a real carry on this team and if they had one is was Changhong. As a matter of fact they were almost living and dying by him. A true "tank carry" player. His weaker Summer performances (primarily because he's been patched out) are a big reason why this team only has a few game wins this season and went from a 60% win rate, 4th best record team to one that's battling Vici for the bottom of the table. 

In his place will be Melody from Dominus' LDL team. I know next to nothing about him so I won't sit here and pretend I do but I think this team needs a few things. Firstly a true leader or to band together and grow a pair so to speak and secondly a top laner that isn't incapable of playing the meta top laners. On one hand you could argue that this only helps Dominus but you could also say that Dominus, being a team that's more the sum of their parts than their individuals, is a team that relies heavily on team play and synergy rather than standout performances.

I'm going to leave these wagers as they are because I'm intrigued and almost think this can't hurt as bad as it seems for a team that's now tied for last. They desperately needed a change of pace or something to light a fire and maybe this is it. If it's not and this team looks like it's going to be a dumpster fire then so be it but I'm willing to give the new kid a chance even against the formidable Zoom. 

I WOULD NOT BET THIS GAME NOW but there is very little value in hedging so I'm just going to let it ride. If you want to join in I'd actually wait until more people here this news/see the lineup and likely hammer the JDG -1.5 in order to get some value. I'm going to leave my wagers as is and hope the new kid can surprise.

Spread: Dominus +1.5 maps @ -137 (2 units)

Moneyline: Dominus +213 (0.5 units)


The game of the week in any region. The two best teams in the LPL and two of the best teams in the world. They're also two tremendously entertaining teams to watch. This is another situation where I'm planting my flag but the truth is you could make an argument for either of these teams at these odds. If you think Invictus are still shaking the rust off from their time without being a full roster then FunPlus is the side. They look ridiculously impressive right now. I'm looking at this as Invictus' welcome back party. I also think FunPlus, while formidable, are a linear and "solvable" team and that Invictus have the individual players to do just that. I also think the rust doesn't really apply to a team of this caliber even with the style they play.

Even simpler when are we ever seeing Invictus at plus odds? Like really when's the last time? Consider my flag planted on the Invictus hill. I think FunPlus are very good and I hope to see them represent China at Worlds but Invictus is the best team in China and you know they had this match circled on their calendar.

Regardless of which side you choose or if you even bet this just enjoy this series it should be a great one between two elite teams. Get the popcorn ready!

Moneyline: Invictus +100 (3 units)

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LEC Summer 2019 - Week 5 Day 2


ROGUE is now -175 vs Misfits

Misfits is starting an entirely new lineup so if you believe that's a positive for them then there is an argument for taking Misfits here but I'm loving Rogue's form right now. This line is likely higher now with Rogues win against Fnatic today but I still love it!

Moneyline: Rogue -132 (1 unit)(early wager)

Vitality have looked bad enough executing that I'm willing to take Origen over them here laying -185. I love Vitality and that they always go down fighting but they're simply not good right now. It's a real bummer.

Moneyline: Origen -185 (2 units)

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NA LCS Summer 2019 - Week 7 Days 1 and 2

NEWS: Keep an eye on Twitter/Reddit to see if we hear anything about Impact starting or not. For those that don't know, Impact and TL Academy player (and former Karthus god and inpsiration for me personally as a Karthus main) Insanity were in car crash when taking an Uber. It doesn't appear that anybody was hurt as they were Tweeting about it but there was a picture with Impact in a neck brace posted. It was likely just cautionary from EMTs. I'm sure he'll be starting but just keep and eye out just in case.



I have a few selections I like in the NA LCS this week. I won't write on the ones I'm not betting but feel free to check out the podcast where we talked about each match!

I love what CLG has been doing this season. They started the season in midseason form with a new top laner which is really impressive. However, I've been saying it all season long, I'm not sure how much more room for growth this team has. In other words CLG have been playing closer to their ceiling since the start which was notable but now that we're halfway through the season we need to ask who this team really is. I think they're a middle of the table team. They're strong, consistent and will likely make the playoffs but can we definitively say they're better than the "bottom" teams? That answer has more layers to it because we have 100 Thieves and FlyQuest who are looking like they're better than the massive win/loss holes they've dug themselves into and are starting to come into the form we thought they'd have before the season started. FlyQuest look confident and collected. I don't think they're going to get hot enough to make playoffs but don't tell them that. I absolutely LOVE this spot for FlyQuest especially because CLG's best players Wiggily and Ruin are going to have a tricky time dealing with Viper. One of these teams is progressing, the other is stagnating. I think the break even point might happen this weekend. CLG are going to finish the season with a better record and pole position than FlyQuest but they might not finish the season the better team.

Moneyline: FlyQuest +141 (1.5 units)

This is a combination of my affirmation that OpTic, despite a rough past couple weeks, are a good team and that Echo Fox are an absolute dumpster fire right now. This is a bettable line and I'm going to just take it. Three units is my max for a best of one with a few exceptions. We're going to max out here. Take the free money.

Moneyline: OpTic -200 (3 units)



Licorice should be back for Cloud 9 and they should be able to handle a CLG team that looks firmly planted in the middle of the table as a good not great team. We're not getting a lot of value here at all as a matter of fact the value is probably on CLG based on the season so far but I'm loving Cloud 9 to get into form in the second half of the season and show that they're in a tier above the rest of the LCS besides Liquid.

Moneyline: Cloud 9 -196 (3 units)(put in Friday)

Again, I feel that OpTic are better than they've looked in the last couple matches and think that TSM have been overperforming a bit. I also think that Crown is one of the few mid laners that can handle Bjergsen. I rate TSM as a slightly better team than OpTic. I'm going to put a unit on OpTic here because I think we're getting some crazy value on OpTic. This line should be like -130 TSM at worst. I'll take a flier on OpTic.

Moneyline: OpTic +162 (1 unit)(early wager)

Two similar teams that had awful starts and have looked to finally get it together. I expect both of these teams to remain competitive even if they don't make playoffs if for no other reason than pride and potential future employment for some of them. I think FlyQuest are a better team and that FakeGod is going to have a really REALLY difficult time with Viper. This should probably be even money and we're not only getting value with FlyQuest but I happen to think they have the largest mismatch on the map weighing in their favor. 

Moneyline: FlyQuest +113 (3 units)(early wager)


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Parlays:

Parlay (2): Sandbox -1.5 + Afreeca -1.5 @ +105 (2.5 units)

"Long Shot #1" Parlay (5):
Kingzone ML + Griffin ML + Afreeca -1.5 + Sandbox -1.5 + Invictus ML @ +951 (0.5 units)

"Long Shot #2" Parlay (5):

RW +1.5 + RNG ML + Kingzone ML + Griffin ML + IG ML @ +1294 (0.25 units)



NA LCS Saturday #1 Parlay (3): OpTic ML + Liquid ML + Cloud 9 ML @ +163 (1 unit)

NA LCS Saturday #2 Parlay (4):
OpTic ML + Liquid ML + Cloud 9 ML + FlyQuest ML @ +534 (0.5 unit)

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