Thursday, August 8, 2019

Betting: August 9th (LCK, LPL, LEC)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 9 Day 2


The majority of my LCK bets the rest of they way, with a few exceptions, will be value based since I believe the top seven teams are all capable of taking series off of one another to varying degrees of likelihood. Sandbox and Afreeca are in a similar tier in that they're excellent at their specialties but have very obvious, very exploitable weaknesses. The catch is that both are good enough and have good enough players to overcome those adversities. I think Sandbox and Afreeca are essentially the same roster construction with different styles. Both have a liability at support for varying reasons and both have a ridiculous top side. Afreeca have looked slightly better in recent matches and I prefer their uptempo style but this is primarily just based on value. I have these teams rated evenly with a tiebreaker to Afreeca due to stylistic preferences on my end. I'm going to take Afreeca here as well on Sunday against Gen.G before that line gets out of whack.

Moneyline: Afreeca +112 (2 units)

Prop: Sandbox to win at least 1 map? NO @ +268 (0.5 units)


When we went over this series on the podcast last night the line was at Griffin -213 and it's actually kind of ridiculous to me that Griffin have moved even more in our favor. You all know my history with Gen.G so feel free to fade me but I'm going 7.5 units on Griffin here. This is a world class team in a pseudo must-win situation to earn a playoff spot. I could see being skeptical on this because Griffin have historically "choked" in big spots while Gen.G have a knack for showing up in clutch moments but I watch the recent performances between these two and I can't help but think Griffin just smash Gen.G back down to earth regardless of who starts in the top lane. Gen.G had a good read on the metagame and were playing far beyond their expected level after Rift Rivals but as we discussed on the podcast they sort of caught a wave of teams on their downswing. The LCK seems to have a pattern of good teams slumping for 2-4 series at a time and Gen.G rode a half dozen matchups with that happening. I don't want to take credit away from them. They look like an improved team but I also think the first time these teams met was Griffin's first series back since Rift Rivals and that they were a bit shellshocked by that experience as well as the game one Volibear support and Lux mid flex. Gen.G are kind of running out of tricks and at the very least people aren't going to be surprised anymore. I think Gen.G are the worst of the seven top Korean teams. They had their run and now it's over. Griffin need this win badly to secure a playoff spot especially with Kingzone taking care of business today against Jin Air. They're going to have to work for it.

This is my pick of the weekend. Griffin opened at -213 and are down to -189. They're the better team, and for my money are the second best team in Korea next to SKT. They had their issues a few weeks ago but this metagame is exactly the kind Griffin thrives in. Lane forever, choke you out of the game with superior individual players, and methodically close out. This is Griffin's wheelhouse. It's also Gen.G's but Griffin have better players at, in my opinion, every single position on the map except ADC where I think Viper and Ruler are comparable. It's heavy handed and obviously you know my history with Gen.G but Griffin feel like an absolute slam dunk here so we're hammering it.

Moneyline: Griffin -189 (7.5 units, BOOK MAX)

Spread: Griffin -1.5 maps @ +132 (2 units, bet placed Tuesday)

Spread: Griffin -1.5 maps @ +142 (1.25 units, add on wager)


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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 10 Day 4


EDG should stomp this but you know how I feel about late season LPL spread wagers and you know how I feel about LPL spread wagers on teams that aren't FunPlus or TOP. Just avoid them. I'll be including this -1.5 in parlays but not wagering straight up.

No wager (including EDG -1.5 in parlays)


I almost made this my pick of the week for the podcast but liked a few other selections more. That said I absolutely love this spot. Team WE are still in must-win mode as they look almost destined for a date with the 8th playoff spot in the LPL. The thing is they need to keep winning. Rogue Warriors have shown signs this season and we've been blown out pretty badly by "bad" LPL teams this week but Team WE are rolling right now. This meta fits their style perfectly, their chemistry is better than it's been all calendar year, and Mystic is playing some of his best League of Legends in the past few years (respect, he's been pretty good in that time). I'm not ruling out the possibility of Rogue Warriors stealing one here but I feel very confident that WE take care of business here.

Spread: Team WE -1.5 maps @ +110 (4 units)

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LEC Summer 2019 - Week 8 Day 1


To me the only bettable games here are the heavy dogs like Rogue vs G2 if you think G2 is going to clown around (and lose... they can win while clowning around), Splyce/Origen, and Vitality/SK Gaming. SK Gaming have come out publically about their inner turmoil and while it's easy to just lay it on whoever is facing them I'll just remind people that sometimes players rally around that sort of thing.... but not at the end of the year when you've lost all hope. There is a lot of dejection here and Vitality are in must-win mode to secure playoffs while also being a superior team. I'm actually laying -213 on Vitality here. I usually cap my best of one selections at 3 units due to high variance but the spot is just so good for Vitality and the number isn't obscene so I'm going to hammer it. I haven't come to a decision yet on Splyce/Origen but I'm leaning Origen in a matchup with two simlarly style teams with similar overall capability.

Moneyline: Team Vitality -213 (5 units)

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Parlays:

I'm going to have a boatload of exposure to Griffin and WE so if you feel squimish about either of those matchups I'd advise shaving on these or cutting them all together but since I'm limited it's my way of gaining more exposure. I'll write more about this but it's just one of those unfortunate things I have to do currently if I want more exposure to a series. It's risky. Tail at your own caution.


Parlay (2): Griffin ML + Team WE -1.5 @ +221 (2.5 units)

Parlay (2): Griffin ML + Team ML @ +111 (2.5 units) 

Parlay (3): Griffin ML + Team WE ML + Vitality ML @ +210 (2.5 units)

Parlay (3): Griffin ML + Team WE -1.5 + Vitality ML @ +372 (1 unit)




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