Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Betting: August 22nd-25th (Playoffs, LCK, LPL, LEC, NA LCS)

LCK Summer 2019 Playoffs - Round 2

#4 SK Telecom -244 (-1.5 @ -120, -2.5 @ +233)
vs
#3 Sandbox +183 (+1.5 @ -108, +2.5 @ -323)

Just like I said yesterday about SKT's match with Afreeca, if it wasn't for uncharacteristic errors that are sadly becoming more and more common and some really arrogant drafting SKT probably would not have lost a single game since Rift Rivals. We saw what happened after that first mistake riddled performance against Sandbox last week, SKT brought it back in commanding fashion and smashed. I expect a much similar result. To me Afreeca actually pose a more stylistically potent threat against SKT's preferred playstyle. Their uptempo, early game oriented approach can punish the way SKT prefers to play and we saw that this morning although, admittedly, it took an abysmal draft for them to do so. 

I know I keep getting burned on it but SKT are capable of playing without these devastating mistakes and Sandbox are more of a jack of all trades, master of none type team. You simply aren't going to beat SKT in a five game series like that. I absolutely love SKT in this spot. I'm going to lay heavier on the -1.5 than the moneyline because I think SKT will 3-0 or 3-1 this series even with the short prep time AND Sandbox getting some film. They didn't show anything new or unpredictable against Afreeca. There weren't any surprises. SKT have historically dominated best of fives because they adjust better than anybody, use information better than anybody, and have a collection of veteran talent that is seemingly immune to tilting. The pressure is actually on Sandbox here not SKT. SKT are the intimidating force. As I mentioned I'll be heavier on the -1.5 rather than using the moneyline to cover my bases. Usually you'd do something like (effectively) bet 244 to win 100 and maybe put 80-100 on the spread so that if the spread doesn't hit you're at least covered down. I'm going be leaning more towards the -1.5 here. Again feel free to do a more traditional approach.


Moneyline: SKT -244 (5 units)

Spread: SKT -1.5 maps @ -120 (3 units)


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LPL Summer 2019 Playoffs - Round 1

#5 EDward Gaming - 238 (-1.5 @ -115. -2.5 @ +243)
vs
#8 Suning Gaming +175 (+1.5 @ -114, +2.5 @ -345)

Suning quietly took care of business over the course of the Summer split after a tremendously disappointing Spring. Props to them. The thing is now they have to face the big boys and they struggled against good teams all season with the exception of a 2-0 against the three sub version of TOP. EDG haven't exactly been great either but this is a pedigree'd team that always performs well in playoffs. It was a close game one that EDG probably should have lost but for what it's worth EDG did 2-0 Suning just last week. 

This boils down to a much simpler explanation for me and that's the I think EDG are a much better team than people are giving them credit for. I think that because we have FunPlus and BiliBili performing well as well as the Invictus drama and RNG rolling people have legitimately forgotten about EDG. I'm impressed with Suning's rebound but I'm going to take EDG in a playoff series over a mid tier team all day long. Scout and Meiko have been playing out of their minds recently too which only helps matters. EDG also have side selection. I like EDG to 3-1 or 3-0 as the two most likely outcomes here.

Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ -115 (3 units)

Spread: EDG -2.5 maps @ +243 (0.5 units)



#6 Invictus Gaming -556 (-1.5 @ -222, -2.5 @ +144)
vs
#7 LNG eSports +353 (+1.5 @ +167, +2.5 @ -189)

Look, I know Invictus have had their struggles with their lineup this year but it's crunch time, we're getting the full lineup, and after the complete and utter stylefest we just saw over Rogue Warriors (I know, they're bad) you can safely assume that IG have their swagger back. Invictus are ready to roll as they prep for Worlds. I have a lot of respect for LNG, they vastly exceeded my expectations and I don't think this was a fluke, they were solid this season but they're not in the same ballpark as focused Invictus. The matchup we saw earlier in the season was the mailing it in because Lucas is starting version of Invictus that we saw look absolutely dreadful for a few series as if they didn't care. This isn't the same team. 

Long story short Invictus are going to smash this. They might punt a game like they usually do if they get a little too ahead of themselves but Invictus are going to make a deep run and it starts with obliterating these middle tier teams. Just remind yourselves of how Invictus looked in the Spring finals against what many would consider a similarly rated team in JDG. Just because they're the kings of best of threes in regular season doesn't mean they won't wipe you off the face of the earth in playoffs.

Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ -222 (6 units)

Spread: Invictus -2.5 maps @ +144 (1.5 units)



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LEC Summer 2019 - Playoffs Round 1

Europe is trying a new "juggernaut" bracket. Basically it's #3 chooses #5 or #6, #4 plays the non-chosen, those winners play each other, then #1 and #2 play their own match for a chance to go directly to finals, the loser of this match will play the winner of the winners, etc.



#4 FC Schalke 04 -323 (-1.5 @ -145, -2.5 @ +200)
vs
#6 Team Vitality +230 (+1.5 @ +112, +2.5 @ -270)

Am I the only one that thinks this line is completely out of whack? I don't think Vitality win this but I think it's a lot closer to 50/50 than this line suggests. This should probably closer to -200 for Schalke so because of that I think we're getting enough value here to just make this a light value play. Vitality barely snuck in on what I thought would be a "for sure" playoff bid and they didn't exactly look great doing it but this is a momentum team and if they're able to steal game one they're the type of squad to just run away with a series. I like Vitality quite a bit here. It's mostly value but I'm almost always a fan of Vitality to upset, albeit a little less so in a best of five. They just have the stylistic genetics to have spike performances and that's always appealing. 

Prop: OVER 3.5 maps played @ -208 (5 units)

Spread: Vitality +1.5 maps @ +112 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Vitality +230 (0.5 units)

Spread: Vitality -2.5 maps @ +768 (0.2 units)



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North American LCS Summer 2019 - Finals and 3rd Place

#3 CLG -179 (-1.5 @ +113, -2.5 @ +305)
vs
#5 Clutch Gaming +135 (+1.5 @ -147, +2.5 @ -455)

I think we were all rather impressed with Clutch's performance against Team Liquid but the truth is Liquid looked like they didn't even have a specific gameplan against Clutch and still got it done.What I'm getting at is don't automatically assume because Clutch looked better that they should crush this match. 3rd place matches are historically unpredictable. It's always challenging knowing who is motivated still, who has crushed emotions after a devastating loss, who is actually good, who is bad, who is going to hide strategies in preparation for the regional gauntlet, etc. There's just a lot of factors at play. 

My gut tells me that Clutch are a bit soulcrushed by their loss to Liquid but might also be very motivated and heartened by their performance. They're going to have a lot more confidence than CLG. I believe we mentioned on the podcast that we'd probably set this line at -130 or so for CLG before last weekends matches just for consistency but that we'd all look to bet Clutch in that spot. Well we're getting that spot. 

This is going to be a rare bet on a 3rd place match for me. I not only like Clutch in this spot but they've been steadily improving as the split has gone on while CLG just kind of are what they are. CLG are the more consistent team for sure but I absolutely love Clutch in this spot. I'm going to limit myself on this because it's difficult to know a teams' motivations here. Clutch could very well just want to withold information or picks looking forward to the regional gauntlet. They can't improve their standing enough to move up to the top gauntlet seed over TSM but they can move past CLG. I'm going to put two units on the Clutch +1.5 and one on the moneyline. I actually think they've looked good enough to warrant this and I like their stylistic matchup against CLG. If Clutch choose to play a more vanilla, hide strategies approach CLG are justifiably the favorite because they're better at that style. I'm not betting heavily on the over 3.5 maps here because one of these teams could easily just not show up for this match. That's happened a lot over the course of time in these 3rd place matches in every region but I do like Clutch here.

Spread: Clutch +1.5 @ -147 (2 units)

Moneyline: Clutch +135 (1 unit)



#1 Team Liquid -294 (-1.5 @ -137, -2.5 @ +214)
vs
 #2 Cloud 9 +214 (+1.5 @ +105, +2.5 @ -294)

It feels like the majority of people are just assuming this will be a close series just because Team Liquid actually went to five games against Clutch. Don't assume this. Quite frankly I don't think Team Liquid had much of a game plan for Clutch. They didn't seem to care about stopping Clutch from doing their patented weakside lane swap + wave clear top (Rumble in Huni's case) and they lost a game (I'd call it a game and a half) to it. Liquid basically beat Clutch without having to reveal anything other than "we're still willing to Taric/Sona." Team Liquid are still miles better than the rest of NA and it took Clutch playing out of their heads AND Liquid straight up disrespecting them for Clutch to get two games. I think Cloud 9 are better than Clutch but honestly they're similar teams. 

Cloud 9 will probably have some weird, zaney pick from Reapered to mix this series up. I don't think motivation is on any side inparticular here since both are going to Worlds it's just a matter of who is the #1 seed (which matters a lot). I think Liquid handle this series but will probably drop a game. Cloud 9 are good when they're at their peak level and they look to be that way but something tells me Liquid have a lot more respect for C9 than Clutch and may have been looking ahead just a little to this match. I like the Liquid -1.5 quite a bit. Frankly nothing would surprise me in this series besides a Cloud 9 3-0. Liquid could very well 3-0 this, it could be a five game slobberknocker, who knows. I'm going to avoid the over maps on this one too even though -217 is tempting for the over 3.5 and just stick to my Liquid -1.5. I think the value is best there. Likelihood of that outcome exceeds the odds by quite a bit for me.

Spread: Liquid -1.5 maps @ -137 (3 units)


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Parlays:

Some of these weights don't look like they make sense but it's because I'm leaning toward more risk since I'm limited. Feeling confident about these and it gives me the most exposure to higher odds. If you're not limited adjust these weights to a number that makes more sense for you. More on the lower odds, "safer" plays and less on the riskier ones.

Parlay (2): Invictus -1.5 + EDG -1.5 @ +171 (2 units)

Parlay (2): Invictus -1.5 + EDG ML @ +106 (2.5 units)

Parlay (2): TL -1.5 maps + Clutch +1.5 maps @ +191 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): Invictus -1.5 + SKT -1.5 vs Sandbox @ +151 (pending)

Parlay (3): Invictus ML + EG ML + SKT ML (from Wednesday) @ +131 (2 units)








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