Betting: August 4th (LCK, LPL, NA LCS)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 8 Day 4

I was back and forth on the podcast for my pick of the week and this was the other option. DAMWON aren't as consistent as a traditional top Korean team but this is also a team that really drives home leads and is willing to take more risks than almost any other Korean team. This is more of a bet against the bottom three LCK teams than it is a bet for DAMWON as they've been less consistent about 2-0ing than some top teams. I think we're just clearly seeing a large gap and I think DAMWON aren't just in the top seven but one of the best teams in the LCK. 

DAMWON should smash this series. They're also currently half a game ahead of both Gen.G (lol) and SK Telecom in the race for first place and a clean win here could put them up to 11-4 (first) and tied in game differential with SKT at +11. DAMWON are going to be highly motivated to take care of business here against a bad Hanwha team and I think they will.

Spread: DAMWON -1.5 @ -175 (8 units)

O/U: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -114 (2 units)

O/U: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -114 (2 units)

This line has moved a lot since opening at Sandbox -119. I think people are starting to see that while there is a clear distinction between the top seven and bottom three LCK teams, that there is also a distinction between the top four and middle three. Sandbox, Gen.G, and Afreeca are all good teams with some obvious weaknesses that can be exploited. They're also good enough to overcome those weaknesses but the top four are more consistant, more versatile, and have fewer weaknesses. I expect Kingzone to win this match but it's important to understand that I'm betting this more on value than I am on confidence. Sandbox are a challenging individual matchup for Kingzone, particularly in the solo lanes but Kingzone also hold such a massive advantage in the bottom lane that it's tough to ignore that. 

Kingzone is a better team, we're getting good value, we're attacking that. I wouldn't be surprised to see Sandbox win this, again, the top seven teams in Korea are all capable of taking a series off of each other but for how much more consistent and versatile Kingzone are I'm willing to fire aggressively on this.

Moneyline: Kingzone -127 (5 units)

Spread: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ +196 (2 units)

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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 9 Day 6

We talked a lot about Invictus' three game escapades on the podcast this week. They actually have NOT won a series in two games this season. Not one. Good teams, bad teams, you name it. Invictus just love playing League of Legends apparently! I do think this could be a spot for it but I'm not sure that given the evidence that we're getting a great value in betting the IG sweep. It's not that we can attribute IG's inability to sweep to intent but they do tend to play around. One thing we said alot during Spring split was that this team did smash good teams and punt games to bad teams. I think BiliBili are likely going to be one of the bottom playoff teams and that stylistically Invictus are an absolute nightmare for them to face but I can't bring myself to bet IG sweeps anymore I've just been burned too many times.

We are, however, going to lay a substantial stake on the moneyline because I'm very confident IG win this series. Invictus are actually not locked for playoffs yet. They're fairly comfortable as 7-4 match scores but I think they'll be motivated in this one because they'll want to avoid playing against the other top teams in the first round if possible and perhaps draw somebody like BiliBili or LNG or WE. I also think there is an element of late season form that will come into play. With all the trials and tribulations this lineup has gone through this Summer I have to think that they can establish some sort of rhythm heading into playoffs. IG are an extremely good team and have just had a weird season. Now that they've had the full lineup together for a few weeks I think they'll come into form a bit. I expect this to be an IG 2-0 but we're just going to take the moneyline to be safe.

Moneyline: Invictus -244 (8 units)

LGD are bad. I feel bad because they do have some good players but this constant shuffle trying to look into the future has really hurt this teams momentum. They just haven't been able to really play this season. WE on the other hand are hitting their stride and looking confident, collected, and quite frankly really good in the last few weeks. WE are also a few wins out from a playoff spot so I expect them to take this match seriously and grind whatever lineup LGD marches out to a pulp.

I made this my pick of the week on the podcast because I think we're getting obscene value considering the trajectory of these two teams currently. WE are looking like they're going to end up a playoff team, they look better than some of the other playoff potentials like BiliBili and LNG right now and LGD are a complete dumpster fire.

Spread: Team WE -1.5 maps @ +102 (4 units)

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LCS Summer 2019 - Week 9 Day 1

I'm tempted to take Clutch against Golden Guardians but the line has since moved to -110 for Clutch so I'll likely just pass. Last day situations are always tough when you have so many games locked already. It's going to be a weird day on Sunday wiht essentially only two games mattering. OpTic battling for their lives against Cloud 9 who are only playing for second. Golden Guardians and Clutch are the other.

FlyQuest and Echo Fox in the final game of the day looks like a fiesta waiting to happen. Two bottom of the table teams with nothing to play for playing in a match to close out the season (unless we get tiebreakers). It's got memes and jokes written all over it. I'm betting five units on the OVER 21.5 kills.

O/U: FlyQuest/EchoFox OVER 21.5 total kills @ -125 (5 units)

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Parlays:

Parlay (2): Kingzone ML + DAMWON -1.5 @ +181 (2.5 units)

Parlay (2): Kingzone -1.5 + DAMWON -1.5 @ +365 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): Invictus ML + WE ML @ -111 (3 units)

Parlay (3): DAMWON -1.5 + WE ML + IG ML @ +140 (2.5 units)

Parlay (3): DAMWON -1.5 + WE -1.5 + IG -1.5 @ +425 (1 unit)

Parlay (4): Kingzone ML + DAMWON ML + IG ML + WE ML @ +299 (3 units)

Parlay (4): Kingzone -1.5 + DAMWON -1.5 + Invictus -1.5 + WE -1.5 @ +1918 (0.5 units)

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