Friday, August 16, 2019

Betting: August 17th (LCK, LPL, LEC, NA LCS Playoffs Round 2)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 10 Day 3

Sandbox +159 (+1.5 @ -182)
SK Telecom -208 (-1.5 @ +132)

(O/U 33:00, 20.5 total kills)

SK Telecom arguably could have 2-0'd DAMWON if it weren't for some really egregious macro errors. Getting picked in game two, and a really poorly positioned dragon fight in game one. On one hand it's concerning for SK Telecom who are normally lights out in terms of decision making, on the other you could say it's an uncharacteristic mistake that we shouldn't put too much weight on.

I thought Sandbox didn't look particularly great against a KT Rolster squad that's battling to avoid relegation. A competitive game one followed by a near flawless victory in game two, and a 53 minute slugfest in game three that could have gone either way are not what you'd like to see from a top three team against a bottom team but so goes the final weeks of regular seasons.

This is a really tough series to cap because both teams were disappointing in their last outings. This last two weeks have been brutal for me in the LCK and my brain is telling me that SKT should 2-0 this. Really they should have 2-0'd DAMWON and I think Sandbox are a similar team to DAMWON in construction. On the other hand I think the "correct" way to play the rest of the LCK season, and what I said I was going to do before completely ignoring my own advice, was to just value bet and take every dog when the top seven teams play each other. 

At this point you could make an argument for betting every dog besides Jin Air period. That's totally defensible but I'm going to follow my eyes here and go with SK Telecom -1.5. Outside of those uncharacteristic errors they've been an excellent team it's just really hard to remove that from the 0-2 result we just saw. Sandbox have had a lot of really weird points of focus, selling out TP's for ocean drakes, forcing skirmishes in losing situations, and others. Sandbox are displaying all the hallmarks of those tier 1.5 teams I keep grouping them with. Exceptional at some things (in their case, their solo lanes) but less consistent and with more flaws than the top teams (SKT and Griffin). I liked SKT vs DAMWON to 2-0 and I think Sandbox have less upside than DAMWON do. The way Sandbox like to play the game is exactly what SKT want. Additionally if Mata ends up playing I thought he looked great in his return.

SKT are also going to be playing for their playoff lives while Sandbox have already clinched and are simply playing for a higher seeding. The first time these two teams met SKT was in shambles but they're a signifcantly improved team since then. I'm going to keep this wager lighter than most I've placed over the past two weeks, because the bettor in me says to just play every single dog from here out but I trust my film review and I trust SKT to take care of Sandbox. After all they nearly handled DAMWON or we wouldn't even be having this conversation.

Spread: SK Telecom -1.5 maps @ +132 (2 units)

Kingzone DragonX -227 (-1.5 @ +120)
KT Rolster +175 (+1.5 @ -164)

(O/U 33:00, 20.5 total kills)

This is a bizarre spot for both teams. KT Rolster are battling Hanwha Life for the 8th seed but trail by a game differential of three so they need to 2-0 and Hanwha lose 0-2 to Griffin to outright over come them OR 2-1 and then Hanwha 0-2 OR 2-0 and Hanwha 1-2 to force a tiebreaker match since the head to head is even. No matter what KT Rolster need this match. On the other side, Kingzone are now eliminated from playoffs after this mornings' results. It's hard to judge whether or not Kingzone will be up for this match or not. I think it's too easy to just assume they'll be depressed about their season ending. There is still a gauntlet to play through and they were preparing heavily for this match anyway because they needed it and some other things to go their way to steal a playoff spot. 

I think KT Rolster have actually looked improved recently. They still have a lot of the same problems and Kingzone are a strong macro team but I can't help but think that even though I think the spot for KT is a tad overrated, that it's still impactful enough. Kingzone have also been struggling mightily in the last couple weeks losing five out of their last six series with their only win coming against Jin Air. 

What this boils down to is whether you think Kingzone are going to want to end on a good note and have been working hard to fix their problems. If you think they'll be up for this match then this is probably a pass. If you like KT's recent form and the narrative that they're battling for a realistic chance to avoid relegation (Hanwha could totally lose 0-2 to Griffin in fact I'd call that likely) then KT could be a nice selection. Keep in mind Kingzone have had five days off to prepare for this one.

I'm going to be light on KT Rolster to take a map here and very light on the moneyline. The bottom LCK teams, besides Jin Air, appear to have hit some amount of their form as the year comes to a close and KT actually have more to play for than Kingzone do in this spot as well. 

Spread: KT Rolster +1.5 maps @ -164 (1.5 units)

Moneyline: KT Rolster +175 (0.5 units)


LPL Summer 2019 - Week 11 Day 5

Royal Never Give Up -556 (-1.5 @ -169)
JD Gaming +373 (+1.5 @ +123)

(O/U: 32:00, 25.5 total kills)

JDG still have a long shot chance to make playoffs if a few things go their way and they win this 2-0. Royal are looking for the 2-0 to attempt to catch TOP and their +3 lead in game differential. One team is fighting for their lives while the other is fighting for luxury. RNG will be starting Langx after ADD put LoveZrr in the dumpster in the BiliBili match. He has a future in the LPL, he looked mostly good until that game and ADD is excellent so nothing to worry about there. 

I guess the question is which JDG is going to show up. The one from playoffs last year that showed exactly how to attack a team that likes to play the way RNG does or the meteoric crash back to reality we've seen this season. JDG have historically succeeded against teams that play ADC centric but they also just lost to Rogue Warriors, a bad team that play that style. 

I'm going to pass this game but I might change my mind. I'd think Royal want to take care of business here and come into playoffs with some momentum but I've got a funny feeling about this one.

No wager (lean RNG -1.5)

Invictus Gaming -667 (-1.5 @ -189)
Rogue Warriors +430 (+1.5 @ +138)

(O/U: 31:00, 26.5 total kills)

Invictus actually need to win this to guarantee a playoff spot. They've announced the full world champion starting lineup with TheShy, Ning, Rookie, Jackeylove, and Baolan. They also just got their first 2-0 victory of the entire season in their last match against LGD and they did that with Leyan at jungle. It wasn't pretty but they did it. I think Invictus are going to absolutely stomp this series and while I know they're the kings of three game series I expect them to utterly decimate Rogue Warriors. IG have also gone OVER the kill total in seven of their last eight but Rogue Warriors are rather anemic soemtimes with their drafts so it's unfortunately going to be a pass there.

Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ -189 (3 units)

Team WE -400 (-1.5 @ -130)
Victory Five +289 (+1.5 @ -104)

(O/U: 31:00, 27.5 total kills)

This is a must win match for WE. They need to win this and hope for and LNG loss to Suning on Sunday. One game differential separates the two but LNG own the head to head tiebreaker. WE are going to be up for this game. They dropped a game to Rogue Warriors in their last match but have won six of their last seven series and and seven of their last nine. Victory Five have lost 0-2 in six of their last seven series with their only win coming as a 2-1 against LNG. You could look at that as a sign since the rest of the schedule was arguably the toughest in the league and LNG is similarly rated to WE but I think the five 0-2's in a row means something. Victory Five's double generic solo lane strategy only has wings when both players can hang with their opposition. I don't think they're outclassed here but I also think we just saw Dominus destroy this team and their laners aren't exactly Forgiven.

This meta is excellent for Team WE and ever since they solidified their roster they've looked like a playoff contender. I think they're the 8th best team in the LPL and I'm a bit biased because I'd rather see them make it than LNG but I do think WE are going to take this one down. That said there is a lot of nerves and Victory Five are capable of playing spoiler with some weird picks and another laner in Otto added to the mix to prepare for. 

Spread: Team WE -1.5 maps @ -130 (3 units)


LEC Summer 2019 - Week 9 Day 2

Splyce -400 vs Misfits +286 (O/U: 32:00, 25.5)
Origen -189 vs SK Gaming +145 (O/U: 33:00, 25.5)
Schalke -167 vs Vitality +129 (O/U: 33:00, 25.5)
G2 eSports -588 vs Excel +391 (O/U: 29:00, 28.5)
Fnatic -227 vs Rogue +173 (O/U: 31:00, 27.5)

Not much today just some over/unders

O/U: SPY/MSF OVER 25.5 total kills @ -125 (2 units)

O/U: Origen/SK OVER 25.5 total kills @ -114 (1 unit)


North American LCS Summer 2019 Playoffs 
Round 2

Cloud 9 -250 (-1.5 @ -125, -2.5 @ +228)
Counter Logic Gaming +191 (+1.5 @ -103, +2.5 @ -312)

Maps Played: 
UNDER 3.5 @ +169
OVER 3.5 @ -227
UNDER 4.5 @ -270
OVER 4.5 @ +200

(O/U: 33:00, 22.5 total kills)

I talked a lot about it on the podcast this week but I think this series is a lot closer than people are giving credit for. Assumptions are dangerous. Do Cloud 9 often play better in playoffs? Yes. Should we assume that? Absolutely not. I don't think CLG are better than Cloud 9 but what I do think is that they play at their best level significantly more often than Cloud 9 does, it's just a matter of what that level is. I think if Cloud 9 are playing at 90% of their potential they're a better team that would likely take this series 3-1 or 3-0 but they've been inconsistent enough this season that I'm having my doubts. Reapered has a history of being an excellent best of five coach, often putting the pressure on other teams to adapt the Cloud 9. In other words they dictate the momentum, pace, and weirness factor of any series they're in. Sometimes that backfires. 

People are sleeping in CLG. They didn't have to show anything in their series against OpTic and I actually think their "KISS" (Keep It Simple Stupid) approach to this season has worked wonders for them. I think they have a huge edge in the bottom lane in this series and that Wiggily has been outstanding this season. I think people look at the name brand value of Cloud 9 and have price memory of years past and this isn't the same team anymore. 

Could Cloud 9 have some cheesy pick to throw CLG off and they never recover from it and this turns into a swift 3-0? Absolutely but I honestly think Cloud 9 have showed more of their hand than they normally do. I could be wrong because they've had a week to prepare for this but CLG didn't have to show anything crazy on film and soundly whooped on a weird OpTic team just playing standard, vanilla League of Legends. I'm not exactly sure what else C9 could have cooked up with this roster and with the limited practice time I'm assuming they've had due to injuries. 

I think Cloud 9 win this series but I think these odds are off. I'm surpemely confident that CLG take a game and reasonably confident they take two. I think Cloud 9's bottom lane as well as Reapered's willingness to aggressively draft weird or cheese picks that can backfire lead me to be sextremely confident in the OVER 3.5 maps. I'm going to be taking a small wager on the CLG ML, a small wager on CLG +1.5, and a heavy wager on the OVER 3.5 maps. I believe all of these are strong values.

Prop: OVER 3.5 maps played @ -227 (5 units)

Moneyline: CLG +191 (1 unit)

Spread: CLG +1.5 @ -103 (1 unit)



Parlay (2): SKT ML + KT +1.5 @ +138 (0.5 units)

Parlay (2): SKT -1.5 + KT +1.5 @ +274 (0.5 units)

Parlay (2): Invictus -1.5 + Team WE -1.5 @ +171 (1 unit)

Parlay (3): SKT ML + Invictus ML + Team WE ML @ +113 (2.5 units)

Parlay (3): SKT ML + Invictus -1.5 + Team WE -1.5 @ +301 (1 unit)

Parlay (3): SKT -1.5 + Invictus -1.5 + Team WE -1.5 @ +528 (0.5 unit)

Parlay (4): SKT -1.5 + Invictus -1.5 + Team WE -1.5 + CLG/C9 OVER 3.5 @ +805 (0.25 unit)

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