Thursday, August 1, 2019

Betting: August 2nd (LCK, LPL, LEC)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 8 Day 2


I kept trying to find an angle on this game and that probably means there isn't one. Both of these teams are in a similar spot battling to avoid relegation but likely better than the challenger series teams and definitely better than Jin Air. Hanwha have looked like an improved team recently but if you asked me to look at these teams in a vaccuum I'd say KT SHOULD be the better squad. I'm leaning toward KT here but was hoping we'd get better odds for either. As is there's too much juice. I don't hate taking a 2-0 one way or the other, take your pick, but I'm just going to avoid this series. 

Originally I liked the over 33:00 a bit but when Hanwha have won games it's typically been pretty quick. I expect this to be a surprisingly competitive series though. If you can find closer to even money on the over 33:00 than the -125 we have to pay then I'd take it for a unit or two. For me this is just a pass. 

No wager
(Strong lean KT Rolster ML and OVER 33:00)


I said in a group chat I'm part of last night that I think the top teams in Korea are all more competitive than it may look. Really I think the top seven teams are all capable of taking games or even a series off of each other. Nobody outclasses anybody that much right now. And sure enough Afreeca deliver a stunner beating DAMWON 2-0. Both series ended up in 2-0's last night but both series' were more competitive than that scoreline would show you. The SKT/Kingzone one inparticular was extremely high level by both squads so don't overreact to the results without watching the film. 

From this point forward I'll likely be value betting the matchups between the top seven teams unless some bizarre playoff scenarios pop up. I do think the top four of SKT, Griffin, DAMWON, and Kingzone are slightly higher class teams than Afreeca, Gen.G, and Sandbox and have fewer weaknesses but it's not by as much as it looks. As such we're going to get a lot of sweet value for underdogs moving foward. 

I think Sandbox just reminded everyone why they were atop the leaderboard at one point in their match against DAMWON but I also think this team has weaknesses that a smart team like Griffin will expose. That's the difference to me between the top four teams and Sandbox, Gen.G, and Afreeca. The top teams have very few weaknesses and plenty of strengths while these three have very obvious weaknesses. The thing is these three middle squads still have exceptional strengths. I think in the case of Sandbox inparticular in this specific matchup their strengths are their top half (solos and jungler). Until their match against DAMWON it was looking like the Sandbox solo lanes were becoming a bit figured out but they seemingly showed up to prove everyone wrong. I think Griffin's solo lanes are just as good and pose a similar problem.

I said I'm going to be value betting Korea from here on out but this is going to be an exception. I think Griffin are enough better and absolutely need this series to make playoffs. Sandbox could make things extremely difficult on Griffin with a win here so it's not that they aren't motivated also but I think Griffin are a more complete, more versatile team and are actually being undervalued right now by the general public who seem to think this team is "choking" again. 

It's a tad aggressive and I'd suggest maybe cutting this wager in half but I'm planting my flag on Griffin here. Value models probably tell you Sandbox is the pick here (after all, they're second place underdogs against the sixth place team...) but I think Griffin are half a tier stronger and I'm willing to aggressively move on that. I think this is the last time we see Griffin sub -200 against a non-tier one team the rest of the year and I'm going to try to take advantage. I'm going to have a lot of exposure to this through parlays as well so I'll stay away from the -1.5 in lieu of that.

Moneyline: Griffin -179 (5 units)

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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 9 Day 4


Suning have been quietly racking up wins and this team that we found so terribly disappointing in Spring appear to be silently taking care of business as they solidify themselves as a playoff team in the LPL. Part of maintaining that is beating up on weaker teams like Victory Five. We've talked a lot about Victory Five and their foray into the swapping solo lanes so I won't bog down the conversation with that again but this team has struggled against elite solo lane talent. Are Maple/Angel/Biubiu elite solo lane talent? Debatable. I think they're solid enough and versatile enough to outclass V5's shenanigans but I wouldn't quite call them the choice of the LPL. Suning should win this series but they haven't really been handling weaker teams in the way you'd expect a playoff LPL team to. We're going to place a light wager on the Suning -1.5 here because I think we're getting a good value (should probably be ballpark -130 or so) but it wouldn't surprise me to see V5 take a game. 

Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ -114 (1 unit)


Similarly to Suning against V5 we're doing a small wager on the -1.5 because I think it's a more likely outcome than these odds provide but I'm not excactly hyper confident in that result. Rogue Warriors are in a constant state of SHOULD be better but just haven't been delivering. This is also a classic JDG losing to a bad team type of situation but I think because of the hole they've dug they absolutely need this win for a playoff spot. I also think Rogue Warriors don't exactly have the macro to punish some of the more sloppy decisions JDG frequently make.

Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ -115 (1 unit)

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LEC Summer 2019 - Week 7 Day 1


I only have two selections in Europe for tomorrow one that I'm extremely confident about and another that's just a value pick. I bet against Rogue last week citing overhype inflating the line value (also I like Vitality). The overinflation has gone the complete other direction. It seems markets just can't decide on Rogue and are constantly over or underrating them. I think Rogue are a better team than SK Gaming and that these lines should be swapped. Rogue should be favored in this match. SK Gaming look like the second worst team in the league right now. We're best of one max three units on Rogue as underdogs attempting to attack a soft line here.

Moneyline: Rogue +104 (3 units)

This Vitality bet is simultaneously a value bet and one that I think isn't too unlikely to be an upset. I'm going to take just about anyone reasonable at +358 in a best of one but I particularly like feast of famine squads, like Vitality, against higher variance good teams like G2. This could be a let down spot as G2 coast to playoffs, this is also a must win for Vitality. Add in the general variance these two teams typically play with and there's a recipe for a big upset to happen. 

Moneyline: Team Vitality +358 (1 unit)

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Parlays:

Parlay (2): Griffn ML + JDG ML @ +100 (2.5 units)

Parlay (2): Griffn ML + Suning ML @ -102 (2.5 units)

Parlay (3): Griffn ML + JDG ML + Suning ML @ +154 (2 units)

Parlay (2): Rogue ML + Vitality ML @ +834 (0.25 units)


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