Betting: August 7th (LPL)

LPL Summer 2019 - Week 10 Day 3

LPL Playoff Picture after 8/6 games:

(from Leaguepedia)

They say a team with nothing to lose is soemthing to be afraid of and sometimes it is but most of the time that's not the case. Vici are done. They've actually been done for awhile. They're trying out new players and lineups and none of them have looked remotely good. This team has 6 game wins this season. After a rough loss to Victory Five this week LNG now find themselves under threat of losing their playoff spot. This is a must win game for them. I know LNG aren't a great team and I know they've regressed to what we thought they were as the season has gone on but they've also still been a better team than I thought. Before Victory Five they faced a nightmare schedule of FunPlus, RNG, and TOP. This team isn't great but they're good and they're in must win mode against a team that's been down and out and doesn't exactly take on the role of spoiler proudly like some other teams. LNG should stomp this series and I think we're getting good value on it because people tend to overreact to losing streaks. LNG have been facing good teams. Vici is just what the doctor ordered.

Must win to hold a playoff spot, bad Vici team with nothing to play for, rough recent schedule for LNG, great value on the line. This is a slam dunk. I think a lot of people might get too cute with this one and try to mise a Vici game win but I actually think LNG are being undervalued here based on recent performance.

Spread: LNG -1.5 maps @ -133 (6 units)

JDG are somehow still in the playoff picture. The way I see it they're going to have to win all three of their remaining series against LGD, OMG, and RNG in order to get in and that's only if some other teams like LNG, WE, and EDG really drop the ball. LGD are a complete circus right now. Constantly changing lineups and even player positions as they try to figure things out. Yuuki isn't having a great season compared to his normal performance. Kramer has been excellent but a single ADC can't do it all (unless you're Teddy on Jin Air). BadeMan has been a detriment in my opinion and while Garvey has shown flashes he hasn't really done a lot with the leads he does accrue. LGD are bad and also have nothing to play for. 

I know that JDG are kind of like Gen.G and do the thing that makes the least possible sense at any given time but I can't help but think just their player quality and need to win this series can drag them to a 2-0 against a poor LGD squad. That said, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them accomplish the win as dramatically as possible and punt a game or have a few longer ones. I'm putting less on this but JDG should pull this one out.

Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ -122 (3 units)

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Parlays:

Parlay (2): LNG ML + JDG ML @ -185 (5 units)

Parlay (2): LNG -1.5 + JDG -1.5 @ +219 (1 unit)

Longer, multi-day parlays

Parlay (5): LNG ML + JDG ML + Kingzone ML (vs Jin Air) + Team WE (vs RW) ML + EDG (vs Vici) ML @ +150 (5 units)

Parlay (5): LNG -1.5 + JDG -1.5 + Kingzone -1.5 + WE -1.5 + EDG -1.5 @ +1211 (0.5 units)

I feel pretty strongly about all five of these sweeps and while I may not bet each individual one I'm confident enough that I'll be parlaying them multiple ways over the next few days while the odds are still good and people aren't doing the same.