LEC Summer 2019 - Playoffs Round 2
FC Schalke 04 -189 (-1.5 @ +104, -2.5 @ +280)
vs
Rogue +146 (+1.5 @ -135, +2.5 @ -400)
Over/Under: 27.5 kills, 32:00
UNDER 3.5 maps @ +186
UNDER 4.5 maps @ -250
OVER 3.5 maps @ -250
OVER 4.5 maps @ +185
I'm back from Vegas and boy oh boy am I glad I was out there instead of sweating it here this weekend because WHAT A FIESTA! Seriously what the hell happened this past weekend. I've been combing over the VODs for the past two days and jeez what a weird one. C'est la vie I suppose.
Right away your gut reaction is that Schalke stomp this series. I still think that's true. Historically it's very profitable to bet against teams coming off of a massive upset. Every so often you get one that's a true momentum squad but Rogue weren't a good team all year and even when they were surging, weren't particularly impressive. Schalke aren't exactly a dominant team either but they looked rather dominant in their series against Vitality. As a matter of fact I think they looked uncharacteristically confident and carried themselves with a certain swagger.
We talked a lot about this one on the podcast this week but now that I've had the chance to watch the VODs for these teams I have to say it's harder than it looks not because Rogue looked surprisingly good but because I really don't know how much stock to put into the Schalke victory. Vitality was really bad... like REALLY REALLY bad. I guess you can't really count it against Schalke that their opponent was terrible but I'm basing most of this call on a full season of film and the context of a team coming off of a massive upset. In these cases it tends to pay to be the wet blanket of reason so we're going to be on Schalke here. A lot of times a "bad" team has to pull out all the stops with a weird pick or strategy or just play way above their level to have a chance at an upset the level of Rogue's last week but it's tough to repeat that. It's not quite automatic because Rogue look confident as hell but I'm extremely confident that Schalke handle them 3-0 or 3-1 so we're going to hammer the -1.5. I'm no longer able to bet kill/time over unders for the time being but I love the over 27.5 kills here too.
Right away your gut reaction is that Schalke stomp this series. I still think that's true. Historically it's very profitable to bet against teams coming off of a massive upset. Every so often you get one that's a true momentum squad but Rogue weren't a good team all year and even when they were surging, weren't particularly impressive. Schalke aren't exactly a dominant team either but they looked rather dominant in their series against Vitality. As a matter of fact I think they looked uncharacteristically confident and carried themselves with a certain swagger.
We talked a lot about this one on the podcast this week but now that I've had the chance to watch the VODs for these teams I have to say it's harder than it looks not because Rogue looked surprisingly good but because I really don't know how much stock to put into the Schalke victory. Vitality was really bad... like REALLY REALLY bad. I guess you can't really count it against Schalke that their opponent was terrible but I'm basing most of this call on a full season of film and the context of a team coming off of a massive upset. In these cases it tends to pay to be the wet blanket of reason so we're going to be on Schalke here. A lot of times a "bad" team has to pull out all the stops with a weird pick or strategy or just play way above their level to have a chance at an upset the level of Rogue's last week but it's tough to repeat that. It's not quite automatic because Rogue look confident as hell but I'm extremely confident that Schalke handle them 3-0 or 3-1 so we're going to hammer the -1.5. I'm no longer able to bet kill/time over unders for the time being but I love the over 27.5 kills here too.
Spread: Schalke -1.5 @ +104 (5 units)
Spread: Schalke -2.5 @ +280 (0.5 units)
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