LCK Summer 2019 - Week 8 Day 3
Earlier in the split I said that if Jin Air are going to take a series that it would be against Gen.G. I know it was awhile ago and that Gen.G have looked like a real team finally but this is the exact kind of situation that Gen.G has lost in the past. This team plays down to it's competition so badly and so frequently that I'm actually going to go ahead and put some money on the Green Wings here. Stylistically this is a weird matchup because Jin Air can jump out to leads but can't close games while Gen.G give up early leads but rarely lose if it goes to late. I'm going to put a lottery ticket on Jin Air here. I've only bet Jin Air one other time this season (against Hanwha). I've been fairly disciplined in not getting sucked into the value of Jin Air because they're a full tier lower than even Hanwha Life who are probably a full tier lower than teams like KT and Gen.G.
Gen.G absolutely need this game to stay in the playoff hunt which is EXACTLY why it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them lose this. That's the kind of ass backwards team Gen.G is and if you don't believe me just look at the past few years from them. They punt in spots like this ALL THE TIME.
Call it a hunch, call hatred for Gen.G, call it whatever you want but I'm gonna take a flier on Jin Air tomorrow. Tail at your own caution but for lack of a better way to put it Gen.G losing here would just be so Gen.G.
Moneyline: Jin Air +631 (0.5 units)
Spread: Jin Air +1.5 maps @ +202 (0.5 units)
This is a fascinating matchup because Afreeca, against all odds and with huge draft liabilities are finding ways to play through it and make adjustments. I loved seeing the Gragas support from Senan and think it could be just the one more pick they might need. Afreeca are still a fairly linear team but they're exceptional at their strength and are finding new ways to work around their weaknesses that other teams have attempted to expose. This is a tenacious team.
This is a weird spot in the season because with the top seven teams so close together in the LCK you want to be value betting in spots like this (taking the Afreeca ML or +1.5) but if you sincerely think SKT are going to win this match, like I do then there isn't a lot of value.
I'll probably include the SKT moneyline in parlays but I'm not going to be betting it straight up instead just a small wager on the -1.5. I think SKT are the better, more consistent team and while I think this could be a close match it doesn't always mean it goes to three games as we've discussed in the past.
Spread: SKT -1.5 maps @ +108 (1 unit)
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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 9 Day 5
Ok Dominus have looked reinvigorated and OMG, unfortunately, look like their organizational failures might have turned this team temporarily back into a pumpkin but I'm going to take OMG here. This line is way WAY WAY overinflated due to recent performance. Curse and Icon are still straight up ballers that could run away with a game here. Even if you power rank Dominus as a borderline playoff team with this new roster (not saying they'll make playoffs just that if they started the season with this team they probably could have) this line would be too much. Just because they're improved doesn't mean they're great. This is the kind of line you see on a playoff team against a bottom of the table LPL team. I'm going to take the OMG +1.5 here for a couple units. I know they've looked bad but this line is absurd. We'll put a small wager on the moneyline too. It wouldn't shock me at all to see OMG win this and that's not a slight against Dominus it just happens.
Moneyline: OMG +218 (0.5 units)
Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ -123 (2 units)
Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ -123 (2 units)
For awhile I thought TOP was a tier below the top teams in China but I'm not 100% sure of that anymore. TOP are really good. This is very similar to the SKT/Afreeca series except closer. The "correct" side here is probably taking the value in TOP but I think RNG probably win this so we're going to take the moneyline for enough to cover a small wager on the -1.5 which I think is still the most likely outcome even though I have a lot of respect for TOP. TOP don't really punch up well and haven't had a win against one of the elite LPL teams this year (they've only faced Invictus without Rookie and lost that 1-2).
(UPDATE: No wager. This line is now -286, a bit too far out of range for my liking. We're going to just put a single unit on the RNG -1.5 though)
Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ +103 (1 unit)
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LEC Summer 2019 - Week 7 Day 2
(G2/Fnatic opened at G2 -227 / FNC +170)
I like Misfits for a unit and probably two if you can find plus odds anywhere. Two even teams that I'd give the tiebreak to the new look Misfits in.
Moneyline: Misfits -109 (1 unit)
This opened at Vitality -227 and has closed since Excel's upset today AND their winning streak. Let's not forget Vitality just had an upset as well, albeit over a trolling G2. The Garen pick obviously mattered but Vitality looked like they could have won a more straight up game too, one of the reasons we bet them. Vitality had a rough start but are starting to look more like themselves again. This is a team people are going to want to avoid in playoffs because their ceiling can be just as high as anybody. I think it's a joke we're getting value this good on Vitality so we're best of one max on it. They also need this win to build toward securing a playoff spot.
Moneyline: Vitality -189 (3 units)
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NA LCS Summer 2019 - Week 9 Day 1
(from Leaguepedia)
Liquid, CLG, and C9 have all clinched playoff spots and are just battling for seeding now.
There isn't really a clean way to break all the variables down for this and we talked about it a lot on the podcast just now but you more or less need to look at this schedule and determine who you think will be playing for what and create and if/then chart for how you wish to wager and do it during Saturday's games for Sunday's action. Create scenarios for yourself like "If CLG lose the first game and Cloud 9 are currently losing to Golden Guardians then I need to bet OpTic Sunday right now before I lose value." There's a lot of those kinds of situations. I have a few pre-weekend wagers I'm going to put in but I'll mostly be live betting these hence the limited action here.
Moneyline: OpTic +131 (1 unit)
Moneyline: Golden Guardians +180 (1 unit)
Moneyline: Clutch -106 (3 units)
These are two value bets based on the premise that we have teams in must win situations that aren't bad against teams that could be battling for top two seedings but have already clinched playoffs. The Clutch wager is not as much a value as it is a selection based on the fact that I think this is a matchup Huni can run away with individually which is going to create a lot of problems for 100 Thieves and FakeGod.
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Parlays:
First few are recreational on a hunch that it could be a weird day tomorrow. Tail at your own caution/entertainment value.
"A really long shot" Parlay (2):
Jin Air +1.5 + OMG +1.5 @ +447 (0.25 units)
"A really REALLY long shot" Parlay (2):
Jin Air ML + OMG ML @ +2225 (0.25 units)
"While we're talking long shots...." Parlay (3):
Jin Air +1.5 + OMG +1.5 + Echo Fox ML @ +3420 (0.125 units)
"While we're talking REALLY REALLY long shots...." Parlay (3):
Jin Air ML + OMG ML + Echo Fox ML @ +14,870 (0.05 units)
"Eastern Saturday Exacta" Parlay (4):
SKT -1.5 + RNG -1.5 + Jin Air +1.5 + OMG +1.5 @ +2208 (0.25 units)
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The more serious parlays....
Parlay (2): SKT ML + RNG ML @ -116 (3 units)
"Sure Shots" Parlay (3): SKT ML + RNG ML + Vitality ML @ +185 (1.5 units)
Parlay (2): Clutch ML + Vitality ML @ +198 (2 units)
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Saturday/Sunday Parlays:
Parlay (4): SKT ML + RNG ML + Invictus ML + Team WE ML @ +265 (2.5 units)
Parlay (4): SKT ML + RNG ML + Invictus ML + Team WE -1.5 @ +466 (2 units)
Parlay (4): DAMWON -1.5 + Kingzone ML + SKT ML + RNG ML @ +418 (1 unit)
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