Thursday, February 7, 2019

Betting: February 8th (LEC)

LEC Spring 2019 W3D1 Feb 8th:


I know it's been awhile everyone but I'm all caught up on EU and now looking to catch up on NA and the LPL and LCS after back to back weekends on the road. 

EU has been rather top heavy this split but these are two of the contenders. Both have had tremendously easy schedules except for bouts against Vitality and this is one of the first real tests for either team this season. I'm going to be going with Misfits for a couple of units for a handful of reasons. 

I'm really not impressed with Abbedagge. He's settled in a little bit after a rough first few games but he's just not the proactive player that I thought he'd be and outside of one great performance on Leblanc he just hasn't done anything except tag along for the ride. The rest of the map has been doing to heavy lifting. Even against Exile he couldn't get a lot done and we all know how I feel about that. I'm not saying he's bad and it's only been six games but he seems to lack that pop that some of the other mids in EU have. 

The reason I mention Abbedagge first is because I believe this is a cascading issue for Schalke that could prevent them from being one of the truly elite teams. Against teams where the outer lanes and jungle play are equal or superior I think this team is going to struggle and I believe that's the case with Misfits. I actually think every single position goes in favor of Misfits individually. Inparticular I think the bottom lanes for both of these teams have been impressive but I've liked Hans Sama and Gorilla quite a bit more. Upset has looked great no question but I also think playing ADC against bad teams and playing cleanup can make players like Stixxay look great and we've seen how that ends up. Watching lane phase Hans Sama and Gorilla have been dominant. I noted in the first three games for Misfits that this "will be a bottom lane that must be dealt with." 

This is also a stylistic mismatch. Misfits have been an excellent proactive team. Against a similarly easy schedule their average game time has been 28:55 to the 33:19 of Schalke and while I once again caution against early season averages with small sample sizes you can just watch these two teams. Schalke wait for mistakes, Misfits create them. If we see an Over/Under game time around 33:00 I'd take the under but's not up.

I like Misfits for a couple of units here. I know it's a little loose sounding but they just pass the eye test more for me and early in the season when the numbers aren't as accurate because of small sample size it's important to trust your film review so that's what I'm doing here. They also play what I believe to be a superior style for the current game and this could be a big stylistic mismatch for Schalke in their current state. Should be a quick, clean Misfits victory.

Moneyline: Misfits -103 (2 units)

Prop: UNDER 23.5 total kills @ +107 (0.5 units)


SK Gaming haven't looked particularly great but they remind me a lot of the teams that struggled early in LCK like Kingzone and KT Rolster. They have the right idea they just aren't executing well and that's a lot easier to fix than a full ideological shift. Splyce are weird, they keep winning games but I keep telling myself in my notes just how many mistakes they're making and I can't help but think this team is due for a sort of collapse. I literally wrote in my game notes for their match against Rogue "Sloppy game with a lot of mistakes by both teams. I think might be the worst two teams in the league. Rogue appear to be WAY WAY worse than the field apparently because SPY sucked closing this game." Turns out I was right on Rogue and the fact that Splyce couldn't cleanly close out that game was alarming to me. They did look good against Origen and put up a fight against Schalke but I just think this is a classic case of a team being worse than they look. They've earned first blood in all six of their games so far and still haven't been able to turn it into more than three wins.

I'm not saying SK Gaming are all that by any means but I do think this line is a bit out of whack and I'm going to attack that. I also think this is a stylistic mismatch because other than first blood Splyce haven't exactly been an aggressive or even lane dominant early game team. It's like they get first blood and just sit on their leads or don't do anything with them. It's actually frustrating. You could look at that as a reason to be optimistic or pessimistic, I'm choosing the latter. I like SK Gaming for a unit here. I think these are two similar teams and in these situations I tend to take the aggressor which should be SK. I also like the UNDER 24.5 and SK first blood a bit but I'm just going to lean that way for now, perhaps I'll fire tomorrow. Moneyline: SK Gaming +138 (1 unit)

Leans: UNDER 24.5 and SK first blood

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