Betting: February 14th (LCK)

LCK Spring 2019 W4D2 - February 14th:

DAMWON are a team that was tough to pin down because we had no concept of relative strength without sample size. I've been preaching that they're due for regression and for the most part that has come true. At the time, if you considered their opening two series wins against a struggling KT Rolster and the awful Gen.G as relative successes then you were bound to be punished in the next few. DAMWON haven't won a series since those two. They've had to face a murders row of, in my opinion, the top four teams in the LCK in Kingzone, Sandbox, SKT, and Griffin. 

So who is this team really? To me DAMWON are a classic 5th/6th team in the LCK. Going into the season I had them at #7 but with Gen.G and KT disappointing they're pretty firmly in the conversation as a playoff contender despite losing four in a row. DAMWON and Hanwha Life are similarly competitive teams that just aren't quite as good as the top teams but have the skills to ocassionally steal games from them. I think DAMWON could have covered a lot of ground in the break week and come out swinging.

Afreeca look downright awful... I was dead wrong on this team going into the season where I had them at #3. I still think this team has potential because their individual players are just so damn strong but their problems are more philosophical. Afreeca aren't a proactive team. They sit back and hope their excellent laners can create advantages with brute strength. They have no tact or creativity and both junglers have really struggled. I wrote in my team notes sheet that "Afreeca can win against other passive teams but against aggressive, decisive teams they're simply going to struggle with their current approach to the game." If we lookat their two match wins they're against the two worst teams in the LCK and even then they dropped a game to Gen.G. They haven't taken a single game against KT Rolster, Kingzone, Hanwha Life, or SKT and I'd say KT and HLE would've been prime candidates for at least a game win for this squad. Afreeca are a mess.

This is one of those series that the break week makes more interesting than you'd think. We discussed yesterday how the week after a break is often weird and full of surprises but that there are still matches that go mostly according to script. So here's the thing with this match inparticular. I don't think Afreeca can completely change their fundamental approach to the game in one week but I also think this is a really strange patch (9.3 non-hotfixed) that allows blue side a huge edge with the Frost-o-mancy abuse but we saw HLE defeat Gen.G trying it yesterday and I think DAMWON are a similar team. As a matter of fact this series is eerily similar. DAMWON and HLE are roughly the same strength to me, maybe DAMWON has a slight edge, and Afreeca and Gen.G are similar. Historically Afreeca have been a team that's well-coached and adapts to patches well but that simply hasn't been the case this season so I'm skeptical.

Everything I've discussed about this series and upsets coming off the break week makes me want to take Afreeca +1.5 @ -167 but I just don't think those odds are good enough for us in this spot and I think the value is actually on the DAMWON -1.5 @ +130. DAMWON should 2-0 this match but I'm hesitant to fire heavily on it because of the Afreeca side selection, a weird abusive patch, and the break week so we'll be limiting action here. This would normally be a 4+ unit wager but I'm going to cut it back to two. There's potentially a nice spot in Afreeca first blood since DAMWON have only scored first blood in 29% of their matches vs Afreeca's 62% but I'm actually not a huge fan of first blood stats especially when the bad team had such a huge number. I also feel like DAMWON completely run over Afreeca in these games which makes me want to take the under in both kills and game time especially with lots of practice the execution should be crisp coming off the break but I'm just too hesitant on this patch so we'll be keeping this to strictly the handicap.

Handicapped: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ +130 (2 units)

While I'm a bit skeptical of Sandbox's unorthodox style and success this season Jin Air are just so bad I can't help but think this is free money. Stylistically this is a nightmare for a Jin Air team that just want's to play long games and aren't particularly good at that either. If the odds on this weren't so outrageous and if this was a normal week I'd book this as a 5 unit lock and just take the ~2 units home with me but I'm not going to mess with this other than adding it to a parlay. There's the break week weirdness factor as well as the down and out underdog factor. This feels like a mighty weird spot. If you're feeling funky throw a quarter on the Jin Air +1.5. If there's a time for them to take a game this is as good as any with this patch and the break but I'll be abstaining.

Parlay (2): Sandbox -1.5  + DAMWON -1.5 @ +217 (0.5 units)

Might take a look at the LMS/VCS tonight and add on another parlay or perhaps a side in the LMS but this will likely be it.