Thursday, February 21, 2019

Betting: February 22nd (LCK, LPL, LEC)

LCK Spring 2019 W5D3 - February 22nd


This match is actually fascinating to me. Both of these teams appear to be battling for the 4th-6th spots in the LCK and more than likely for a playoff spot because of it. Both have looked excellent at times and I'd say they're both really solid teams. Both are coming off of two victories in their last two matches heading into this one. DAMWON have had the considerably easier schedule facing Afreeca and Jin Air while Hanwha had Gen.G and Kingzone. 

With the meta shifting more towards and ADC focus I actually find myself liking Sangyoon quite a bit and Tempt is absolutely on fire so the question here is whether or not we think Thal/SoHwan will be a liability against Nuguri. I also think whether or not Punch gets games again will matter in this series but I'm going to attribute his starting to the fact that DAMWON faced Afreeca and Jin Air in their last two. Canyon should be in for this potential playoff deciding match.  

With this information I still think Hanwha Life have a reasonable chance in this series and feel that this line should probably be closer. That said, I'm not sure I'm confident enough to wager anything here. If you're a value bettor then the argument could be made for either side here. You could think that we're not going to see DAMWON this cheap again or that Hanwha should be closer. I'm going to hold off on this one and see if there's any line movement in a few hours. For the time being lean to Hanwha simply on value but I do think DAMWON are favored here.

No Wager (lean to Hanwha for line value)


The first time these two met last week the first game looked close for awhile as KT Rolster tried their hand at the Smeb Yorick but Griffin had all the answers and took control shortly after the start of mid game. Game two was classic Griffin speedrunning. 

These lines are too outrageous for me so I'll be abstaining from this but I do kinda like the double under. I'm not sure KT Rolster can cook anything up in a week to surprise Griffin more than they already tried to and while I'm a little optimistic about KT the rest of the season this isn't the time or place for them to upset. I know it's a lot of juice to pay at -125 but I like the double under here.

O/U: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -125 (1 unit)

O/U: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -125 (1 unit)


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LPL Spring 2019 W5D4 - February 22nd:


I absolutely LOVE Invictus in this spot. Everyone is going to overreact to their 0-2 loss to LGD. While some reaction is definitely deserved I'd be out of my mind to look this gift horse in the mouth. Invictus are still the best team in China. We can forgive them for taking what appears to be their first series or two off in over a calendar year. I like SinoDragon's confidence and attitude but this just feels like an Invictus speedrun to me. I think they remind everyone who they are.


O/U: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -114 (1 unit)

O/U: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -114 (1 unit)



I'm having a tough time reading EDG this year. I'm 1-3 when picking them. They've had bad losses and solid wins. The eye test tells me that they're sort of like Afreeca, a good team with good players that doesn't really know how to play right now but they're learning. I think with the direction the metagame is going they'll be fine with this setup. 

Suning were looking like the premier team in the league until their 0-2 loss to Rogue Warriors on Tuesday but they also didn't play a match for literally 20 calendar days so some weird things can happen in those situations. I'm not going to look too much into that series and I'm willing to give them a pass on it. That said it's definitely worth at least noting. The FunPlus series was an excellent one to watch and I was a little surprised Suning found a way to lose it but I think generally Suning will be a top three team. 

Suning feels like the right side here but I think this is too rich. EDG have looked kind of all over the place but I feel like the metagame is settling into a place that's good for them. It wouldn't surprise me to see either side win though I'm not confident enough in EDG to fire on it.

No wager (lean EDG for value)

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LEC (Europe) Spring 2019 W6D1



I'm leaning toward Rogue but this is more or less the toilet bowl so it would only be for like a unit. I think they've shown improvement over the season but after last week it's tough to think about that. I'm not going to fire for now but if this gets towards the +130 range i might.

No wager (Lean Rogue)

I love Vitality against Splyce tomorrow. Those that aren't aware I still feel Splyce has been getting away with murder in a lot of games and I think they're tremendously overrated right now. I also think Vitality are a rough matchup stylistically for them.

Moneyline: Vitality -182 (2 units)

The rest of Europe I'm going to hold off on for now and likely live bet tomorrow.

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