Betting: February 19th (LPL)

LPL W5D2 - February 19th:

Every once in awhile in this field you're reminded just how much difference a couple weeks can make. I'm not going to sit here and tell you that Invictus are on the down swing or anything like that, as a matter of fact I'm quite the contrary and will be fading the haters next match, but LGD looked leaps and bounds better. This is a team that, before the break, looked like even if IG took the day off they would have struggled. That may not be the case anymore. 

FunPlus have been rolling and their only game losses have been to Suning who looks like an elite team and a really weird one to Snake that I'll call a half-fluke based on one really dumb mistakes in the 2v2 bot early on. I'll be honest they've impressed me. I figured they'd be a playoff team but something tells me they're due for some regression, the question is when. 

I'm going to bet this isn't the time for regression. More specifically I'm going to bet that, while I'm intrigued by LGD moving forward, LGD aren't that Invictus slayers because I honestly don't think Invictus showed up to play the other day (Kindred? Really?). You can agree or disagree and that's fine but I'm sticking to my gut and the full season sample size here. LGD aren't a good team. They came out of the two week break hungry for a win and Invictus looked hungover. Keep in mind that this LGD team gave up series against Rogue Warriors (a bad team), and BiliBili (a mediocre at best team). They were also trounced by TopSports. Regardless of whether you think FunPlus are a top three good or top six good they should be able to handle this LGD team with relative ease and especially after the Invictus loss the other day they're not going to want to be embarassed in the same fashion. 

Handicapped: FunPlus -1.5 maps @ -135 (3 units)

I've been saying it all season but other than ZWuji this Rogue Warriors teams is B.A.D. BAD! They might be the worst team in the LPL by seasons end. They've faced a number of good teams that have played absolutely terribly against them and STILL LOST. They have poor macro understanding and their individuals aren't particularly great either other than ZWuji. I know we've talked about the "post break" weirdness factor but I just don't imagine a universe where Suning lose this game. They've been dominant and even played a competitive series with a few roster swaps against the similarly talented FunPlus.

Unless you think Suning will have a similar hangover effect to Invictus than this is one of those "free" bets. I'm going to limit it due to by week weirdness and the odds but we'll be placing a few units on the handicap here. Suning with prep time and side selection should be able to get the job done even if WeiWei and Angel start. I'll be avoiding the over/under here because Suning haven't shown to be the speedrunners that teams like RNG and IG are yet. 

Handicapped: Suning -1.5 maps @ -222 (3 units)

Parlay (2): Suning -1.5  + FunPlus -1.5  @ +139 (1 unit)