Friday, February 1, 2019

Betting: February 2nd and 3rd (LCK, TCL, LEC, NA LCS)

I'll be on the road once again this weekend but after this my schedule clears up for awhile so I'll be able to bring content more consistently to you all like I did last year. I've had a terrible start to this season and hopefully some time away this weekend can let me refresh and refocus. I've been able to catch up on the LCK and LPL VODs from this past weekend and this week and I'm current on those regions but I didn't get a chance to check out the LEC or NA LCS last weekend. For this reason I'll be abstaining from wagering on those regions. I'd direct you to John George (@TheEsportsPlug), Kalvin (@RulerrSama), and Chris (@Prim3_T1m3 ) for their selections and thoughts on this weeks games. Excellent minds, great content, and much better starts to the season than I've had. They've done all the research on the Western regions that I've simply been unable to do until this point but I'm hoping to get all caught up next week and be back in full swing! I'll also update my capping stats next week as well since they're dated (and worse!)

With the LPL on break and my abstaining from the West until I can watch VODs we just have LCK and potentially some TCL action this weekend. LET'S TURN THIS BOAT AROUND!

LCK Spring 2019 - February 2nd and 3rd:


This is a tale of two crestfallen squads that were destined to be playoff contenders or better this year. Needless to say things haven't quite clicked for either yet. We have Afreeca with their wild drafts and role swaps that look desperate just to find something, ANYTHING that will work for them and then KT Rolster who simply can't stop shooting themselves in the foot game after game, series after series.

Afreeca are coming off of a weirdly competitive game one against Jin Air in which they simply could not close the door and what should have been and open and shut game one. They had scaling on their side and a small lead but no real way to start a fi..... wait they had Spirit's AP Jarvan support... Somehow this worked and I'm not going to immediately poo-poo the idea since there's some merit to it based on conversations with a few higher level players I know. One mentioned that perhaps it was a scrim trend noticing that Route plays over aggressive with his abilities and this was a surefire way to punish. Anyway, I digress, it was a goofy pick but worked. Game two was an utter stomping, a nearly flawless victory in 24 minutes. KT had a series of the most boneheaded throws I've ever seen in their last performance, especially in game three against Gen.G.

These two teams are similar in that they're having the same late game mishaps but substantially different in how they approach the game. KT want to make things happen early but often fail to execute on it while Afreeca tend to play a bit more reactive, although not as much as say Jin Air or Gen.G. To me these two teams are pretty firmly in the "better than the worst but worst than the rest" tier. Both have beaten Jin Air, played relatively close against Gen.G and have been more or less blown out by everyone else. They both have tremendous potential but so far it's been a real struggle. 

To me this series has a good chance of going two ways and a lesser chance at a third way. Option #1 is the KT manage to execute and just run Afreeca over in these games. I'm not sure this is where I'd be considering the roster changes and individual player quality on Afreeca in lane. Option #2, the one I feel is most likely, is that these teams will ultimately play a real clown fiesta of a series with lots of throws back and forth. Option #3, the least likely in my opinion, is that Afreeca cleanly win.

I'm not touching a side in this game becuase both teams have been so wild but I have a few ideas for other wagers depending on how you think this series plays out. I desperately want to bet the OVER 35:00 but that's a really big number. If this was 34:00 I'd almost definitely fire. If you believe these games will be KT running over Afreeca the under is where you want to be. I, for one, think we'll get at least one clown fiesta in this series so I'm going to stay away. 

Our whole "this is two old school LCK teams so the kill total will be low" bet doesn't really apply here to me. Both of these teams seem to have the right idea of playing more proactively they just don't execute well on it. I'd lean the OVER 21.5 total kills and lean the OVER 35:00 because these teams, while well-intentioned, simply don't accomplish what they set out to do and this could turn into a weird one.

No Wagers (Strong lean on OVER 21.5 and Lean OVER 35:00)


I'm done betting against Griffin. This team is simply toying with the LCK. Can we get these guys some competition already? The LCK is looking eerily similar to EU in the G2 domination era and the Season 3 LCK where SKT was just in a league of their own. I really don't know what else to say. And I was high on this team saying they were probably going to be the best team in the world this year going into the season! They're still overperforming. At this point it's a real question about if and when they lose and when they drop a game. Even the best teams of all time dropped games but we've had a few come damn close, including Invictus last year and SKT. 

Sandbox have really impressed me. This is a situation much like Vitality was last year where I need to adjust my expectation for this team. I had them finishing last place but that's simply not the case anymore. This team is a playoff team even if you disregard the hot start. Unless the metagame changes in a drastic way I think Sandbox are better than Jin Air, Gen.G, KT, and Afreeca until those teams show me something. I'm even baking in some regression into that prediction. 

So with all of this stuff in mind let's talk about the likelihood of Sandbox taking a game because that's really what we're betting on here. I don't think it happens and to me it boils down to the fact that Griffin are just more versatile. Sandbox are excellent at the way League of Legends is played right now; longer lanes into an "ARAM" phase. They are confident, decisive, and know how to transition to this and that's been their biggest strength. It's also all they've really shown us. Griffin can win while scrapping, just dominate lanes, can split, and when all else fails they can just ARAM just like Sandbox does but better. 

This is a combination of Sandbox being due for some regression and Griffin just being that damn good. I tend to be a person that bets like a believer, not often but on occassion. Why can't a team go undefeated? I mean if there is ever a time to do it in Korea it's right now. I said the same thing going into the NFL season about Patrick Mahomes this year. "Why can't a rookie (more or less) throw for 50+ touchdowns?" I use the same kinds of ideas in fantasy football. You need to get out ahead of the curve. I was really high on Griffin going into the season and how they just completely dismantled an SKT team that looked completely shaken by the nightmare they'd just seen just made me even more confident. 

This is going to look like a sucker bet. I'm finally admitting Griffin are as good as they are and I'm going to get destroyed going heavy on this after saying "they're due for at least a game loss" for weeks now but I've been behind the curve and chasing ALL SEASON LONG and it's why I've been losing so much. "This team will turn it around" or "That team is due for a loss" have been frequent phrases here and I believe at some point I just needed to step back and look this gift horse in the mouth. I've stopped looking at what's on the page and I'm diving too much into narrative and "feel."

Griffin are going to destroy Sandbox just like they did SKT and I'm laying down my first hammer play of the year on it. This could be the last time we see Griffin handicaps under the 200 mark so I'm firing heavy on it.

(The exact 2-0 is 6 points better odds for some reason so we're going that over the handicap.)

PROP: Exact Griffin 2-0 @ -169 (6 units)


Gen.G managed to beat KT Rolster but it took multiple ridiculous throws in order for that to happen. They also surrendered a game to Jin Air, their only game win of the season. To me Gen.G are the second worst team in the LCK. They're playing like it's still 2017 and don't show any signs that they're willing to adjust. You simply can't play this way anymore. I'm extremely low on this team depsite having them reasonably high in my pre-season rankings. This is one of the teams I've had to make major adjustments for. Gen.G honestly sucks. Period.

Kingzone are slowly but steadily figuring things out and look like they're playoff bound. They're pretty clearly better than bottom teams of Jin Air and Gen.G and seem to be picking up some momentum after back to back decisive 2-0's against the "room for improvement but still inconsistent" tier in KT Rolster and Afreeca. Pawn was my main concern on this roster and he seems to have tapped into the fountain of youth because he's still got chops.

Kingzone have the right idea. They're proactive, aggressive, and mostly execute well except against the elite teams. Looking at Griffin and Sandbox as their two losses suddenly doesn't look so bad and they actually could have taken game one against Sandbox. These are two teams trending in the opposite direction. Don't be fooled by Gen.G's victories. They were spoon-fed one by KT Rolster and Jin Air is sincerely not an LCK caliber team right now (who they still dropped a game to by the way). I LOVE Kingzone here. I actually think Kingzone could end the season in third place even after this weird start to the LCK season. They're doing all of the right things and their only losses have been to an excellent team that nobody saw coming in Sandbox and arguably the best team in the world in Griffin. Of course this is where Gen.G "Generallyrobbing.Gelati" as I've affectionately come to know them as, blow up my spot but this is the right side here. If I didn't feel cursed at times by this squad this would be another 5-6 unit hammer play from me. These odds are excellent and there is a good chance we don't see them this good again for Kingzone who look to be one of the better teams in the LCK.

Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX -208 (3 units)

Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ +146 (1 unit)



SK Telecom were simply humiliated by Griffin on Thursday morning. It's been a long time since I've seen a legitimately great team, and I do think SKT is a great team this season, completely dismantled like that. It's honestly flabberghasting. Griffin are simply unreal. With all that said I actually LOVE SKT in this spot coming off of a brutal loss to what appears to be the LCK's newest super villain they're going to be looking to get right. Engage full "FU" mode (Faker Upset or... the other thing). 

This isn't to downplay Hanwha Life at all. They've actually been a bit better than I expected and much like Kingzone, appear to have the right idea but have only lost to Sandbox and Griffin. Hanwha Life are a good team but I also think this is more or less their ceiling. I'm not sure they can improve on this. They might remain steady and will likely be the 5th or 6th playoff team with how awful some of the teams we expected to do well like KT and Afreeca have been playing but they aren't in the same tier the next bunch of teams to me which include SKT, Kingzone, DAMWON, and Sandbox. 

The combination of SKT coming off of a humiliating loss and only having one day to prepare for this while Hanwha Life has been off since last Saturday would perhaps give you reason to bet Hanwha Life here for the "spot" but I think SKT are AT LEAST a full tier better than Hanwha even considering that they've been better than my pre-season expectations. I like SKT to 2-0 this. One or two of these games might be close but I feel relatively confident in SKT here and we're getting even money on it. If you think the Griffin loss plus short downtime vs long downtime is a reason to go the opposite direction then you definitely should. As a matter of fact that's almost definitley the "sharp" bet but I just think SKT are enough better than Hanwha to take this one down and think the loss will be more of boon than a demoralizer. 

Handicapped: SK Telecom -1.5 maps @ +100 (2 units)


I'm also going to put a small parlay down on the triple LCK sweep this weekend. Feel free to combine any two of these but I'm just going to "for fun" bet the three part.

Parlay: Kingzone -1.5 + SKT -1.5 + Griffin -1.5 @ +672 (0.25 units)

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