Betting: February 27th (LPL)

LPL Spring 2019 - W6D3

I'm not trying to overreact to one win that made us a bunch of money but there is absolutely no way in hell this line is right. +288 is 25.8% implied odds. Really? Look, I don't necessarily think Victory 5 are the new hotness in the LPL but they're at least a C tier team which is exactly where I have JDG. As a matter of fact I'd say JDG are likely around the same level as Victory 5 with their in-game inconsistencies this season. JD haven't really looked great. Their record does, but they don't. They've struggled against a bad OMG team, haven't had a win against what I'd call a good team except for that weird pre-break match against Invictus who appeared to have started their vacation early. That said I do respect these players and the potential this roster has. 

This could blow up in my face but I absolutely love Victory 5 here especially with side selection. There's no way this should be anywhere near this. I'd make JDG maybe -160 to -175 favorites if I was just capping this based off of what I've seen so far this year. Both teams have similar metrics in damage per gold and gold differntials but Victory 5 have the edge in more or less every category except first tower percentage. Maybe V5 are starting Pepper and Road? I can't see any other explanation for this. 

With all of this said I still think JDG win this series so I won't be dumping a truck of money on this however this line is far enough out of whack that I'm going to attack it more aggressively than I normally would a normal "value" play. Victory 5 is trending up, JD are a huge question mark to me, and the line is absurdly off.

(I got in on these a few hours later and the line had already shifted accordingly but still tremendous value for us)

Handicapped: Victory 5 +1.5 maps @ -137 (3 units)

Moneyline: Victory 5 +239 (1 unit)

This game looks like it's going to be a chore to watch tomorrow. If you have any faith in Snake to rediscover themselves this is as good a place as any because I believe Rogue Warriors are one of the worst teams in the LPL. I've been burned a lot by Snake this season and they look like they're in complete disarray so as much as I want to put a unit on the .... jeez I can't believe they're underdogs. Anyway I'd love to put something on Snake especially at home but I just don't trust this team right now. They still feel like the right side though. Let's put a unit on them purely for speculation. Tail at your own caution here this is two awful teams I'm just hoping to see Snake summon up any sign of hope.

Moneyline: Snake -110 (1 unit)