Wednesday, February 20, 2019

Betting: February 21st (LCK)

LCK Spring 2019 W5D3 - February 21st)


Kingzone have shown some weird game planning this season and that's what scares me about this matchup. They've played into Gen.G's long game and won, they've rumbled and tumbled with DAMWON and won, and they've also completely run over the attempted early aggression of KT Rolster. While it does say something to me that they are winning these series there has to be some element of tempting fate here. Let's attack our opponents where they're strongest? Sometime it works but when you're doing it a lot it's sketchy. 

I'm not saying Kingzone are going to lose this series or even drop a game but I had to take a step back and think about my initial reaction to these lines being posted which was "34 minutes? Really?" I had to double check and Kingzone have had some really weird series this season. Anyway we've seen Jin Air twice since the break and honestly nothing has changed. This team is a mess and for awhile Teddy was their only redeeming characteristic but if you exclude him this entire organization has been a trainwreck. Even the very worst LCK teams get a few wins but I really don't think Jin Air are going to get more than two or three without some major shakeups or major improvements. 

If you consider how bad Jin Air is and the fact that I actually like this Kingzone team quite a bit (I think they're probably the 4th best team in Korea right now?) this seems like a slam dunk. I'm perhaps a little gunshy because this feels really fishy to me but we're going to fire on the Kingzone sweep for a few units. I just don't see Jin Air getting it together and unlike years past where teams could get trapped into playing Jin Air's game, they aren't even good at "their game" anymore. I see no redeeming characteristic to this entire Jin Air roster outside of a few individual players potentially being good projects for other organizations to work on after this season.

Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ -175 (3 units)


I just don't know what the hell is going on with Afreeca and it's simultaneously boring, terrifying, and frustrating. If Afreeca showed me ANY signs of life I'd be firing on the +1.5 here because I think it's a great spot but for as much as I keep pointing out the holes in Sandbox's game they sure do win a lot. I think this is in a roundabout way similar to the Worlds situation last year. The Korean teams simply didn't have the tools to punish some of the sloppiness of the aggressive Western and Chinese teams. Whether that was from practice, regional tendencies, or some combination of both didn't matter they just couldn't deal with it. Sandbox reminds me of that. They just brute force everything. I'm not saying they're a bunch of cavemen bashing their opponents in with clubs, they're a bit more creative and nuanced than that, but it's not out of line to say that's too far off. We'll say they're cavemen that occasionally try out a new kind of club to beat their opponents to death. That's a bit more tasteful.

I desperately want to put something on Afreeca here. This team can't possibly be as bad as the Jin Air's and Gen.G's of the world can they? CAN THEY? Come on guys SHOW ME A SIGN! .... I can't do it. 

Handicapped: Sandbox -1.5 maps @ -141 (3 units)

PARLAY (2): Sandbox -1.5 maps + Kingzone -1.5 maps @ +168 (0.5 units)


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