Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Betting: February 13th (LCK)


Before wading into our first post-break matches I wanted to take a look at specifically the LCK and how the teams respond to time off like this. The working theory is that with the extra time off it aids the bad teams more than the good teams because they have more ground to make up. Historically there are often upsets the week coming out of a bye. Whether it's the bad teams figuring themselves out or just extra time to prepare or even just steady practice with a set lineup there always seems to be something whacky in the week or so coming out of a break.


Pictured above is Week 5 of LCK Spring 2018, a week that followed a nine day break in the action. In order to extrapolate a bit we need some context here. 

  • SK Telecom was struggling with losses to mediocre and bad teams such as Jin Air, MVP, and a game loss to BBQ Olivers who have since been relegated. SKT also showed absolutely no hope at all against the good teams at the time with the exception of a surprise 2-0 against KSV (now Gen.G) on the last day before the break. On the first day back after the break SKT dropped a game to the since relegated Kongdoo Monster, a team that most would consider the worst or second worst team in the LCK last Spring. 
  • Afreeca defeated the KT Super Team in their first match, lost to the dominant Kingzone, lost a hard fought match against KSV and then proceeded to win their next five series in a row without dropping a game to the bottom and middle of the table teams. After the break they lost 0-2 to a struggling, middling-at-best Jin Air on the first day back and then once again to Kingzone a few days later.
  • Kingzone was clearly the strongest team in the league and arguably the world during the Spring split of LCK last season. Other than an opening day loss to KSV, Kingzone won all FOURTEEN of their other games leading into the break. That's seven series in a row against both good and bad teams. They were utterly dominant. After the break, and after a few days of play from other teams they proceeded to lose 1-2 to the since relegated BBQ Olivers.
  • KT Rolster were more or less living up to the Super Team hype having won six of their first eight series with their only losses to the dominant Kingzone and an opening day loss to the Afreeca Freecs who appeared to be better than most people thought. KT had a habit of punting games here and there but were pretty clearly an elite team. After the break they 2-0'd KSV but then dropped a game to Jin Air and lost 0-2 to ROX. 


Do you see the point I'm getting at here? It's not always the case but a lot of bizarre things happen coming off of breaks, especially in the LCK. Summer 2018 was a bit less surprising but I'll place that as well as previous years coming off break below. You can do your own research and contextualization if you like but if you've been an LCK watcher you'll remember some of these.


LCK Summer 2018


LCK Summer 2017

LCK Spring 2017


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LCK Spring 2019 - W4D1 - February 13th

(Everything I've read says Patch 9.3 tomorrow) 



Hanwha Life have looked exactly mediocre to me this season. They're pretty clearly better than the bottom tier teams but we're still not entirely clear how good or bad they are because the bottom tier teams have mostly underachieved our expectations. Teams like KT Rolster, Gen.G, and Afreeca have mostly disappointed. I wrote in my team notes for HLE that "This team is going to be a playoff contender even if I think they're due for some regression." So is this where we start to see that regression or do we think Gen.G remain disappointing.

Gen.G managed to take the gift Kingzone gave them on a silver platter to the bank in game two but other than that have literally only won games or series against either bad teams or teams that we've deemed disappointing. Their game wins are to Kingzone (just mentioned), KT Rolster, Jin Air, and Afreeca. Their only match victories were over KT and Jin Air and they were 2-1's. Gen.G are really tough to watch. This team has so many strong players but they just don't fit together at all and they don't seem to ever be on the same page. CuVee has been benched, Roach has been solid in relief and likely continues to be the starter. Peanut tries to make proactive plays early but has no backup. This team literally only beats teams that are just as lacking in the proactivity department as they are.

Hanwha Life might be due for a bit of regression to me but at the very least they're better than these "bad" teams. They understand the way the game needs to be played right now which is to be proactive. Their drafts are also well thought out and sometimes creative. They just botch leads. After exploring the history of all the "upset" potential from the break week I'm actually going to go against that trend and say this is one of the more normal results. I like Hanwha Life to win this series but I do think they'll potentially botch a lead in one of these games so I'm avoiding the handicap. That said, Gen.G loves stealing my money and if you've read me in the past you know this is a classic "FADE GELATI" moment but I think I'm being unbiased this time around. Gen.G just aren't that great.

With both of these teams averaging 19.8 (Gen.G) and 19.0 (HLE) Kills+Deaths per game and how I feel this series will play out I actually like the under. It's a fairly low number but to me this is either going to be HLE proving to be the better, more decisive team and just running Gen.G over in a couple clean victories, or we'll get long, drawn out, low kill endeavours. Either way I like the UNDER 21.5. The counterargument here is that these teams have drastically different numbers in their wins than they do in their losses. While HLE are a very proactive and aggressive team they aren't really as scrappy as you'd think. They're actually rather disciplined and Gen.G... well we know how they like to play.

Moneyline: Hanwha -139 (1.5 units)

O/U: Map 1 UNDER 21.5 kills @ -114 (0.5 units)

O/U: Map 2 UNDER 21.5 kills @ -114 (0.5 units)

PROP: Exact Hanwha 2-1 @ +243 (0.25 units)





In hindsight I should have but the house on SKT absolutely rage stomping on HLE out of frustration for their embarassing loss at the hands of Griffin. It was as sure as the sun rising and setting. SK Telecom, even when they are bad, have never been an organization to tilt off of bad losses like that. Faker and Kkoma are so remarkably similar to Brady and Belichek it's not even funny. Off of bad losses they go into what I've affectionally come to call "FU" mode and just destroy their next opponent. Anyway I digress....

This is actually a really fascinating matchup especially with the week off. I'm intrigued to see what these two teams bring to the table. Both Kingzone and SKT have two match losses and in both cases, each was at the hands of Griffn and Sandbox. Kingzone have the lone "concerning" loss which was their game two punt to Gen.G prior to the break but for the most part these teams have been similar. I was higher than most on Kingzone going into the season and they've more or less settled where I thought they'd be. The reason that's important? I had Kingzone two full tiers below SKT. Now we could argue the merits of whether SKT deserve to be S-Tier or not. If you replace my embarassing Afreeca and KT Rolster predictions with Sandbox and maybe Kingzone I still have SKT a cut above them. 

The line indicates that, despite similar records and similar losses to stronger opponents, that one of these teams is clearly worse than the other. -270 is a 73% implied probability. Do we really think SKT are that much better than Kingzone? I definitely think they are but not by that much. I'm really in a pinch here. SKT have the better team on paper and have looked better to me but as we discussed earlier the break week gives underdogs a big edge in preparation. Not to say that SKT won't pull out something new or be ill-prepared but Kingzone not only have side selection but the element of surprise here. 

I LOVE the Kingzone +1.5 maps here. If you consider the implied odds of 73% for SKT I think Kingzone have a much stronger than 27% chance of winning this match. I won't be betting the moneyline heavily but if you're a value bettor than this is a great spot coming off the break week with a good team being a heavy underdog.

Handicapped: Kingzone +1.5 maps @ -123 (2.5 units)

Moneyline: Kingzone +201 (0.5 units)

Parlay (2): Kingzone +1.5 + HLE ML @ +211 (0.25 units)

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