Betting: February 10th (NA LCS)

NA LCS Spring 2019 Week 3 Day 2:

Takeaways from yesterday:

(from my Twitter)

-Optic don't set up well they just play and teams that are in the same page are going to punish that
-TSM just got outscaled with Olaf/Liss, let's not overreact
-Echo Fox sorta same problem as Optic but not quite as bad

I know these are overly simplified but those were my bigger picture takeaways from yesterday. I actually like today's slate quite a bit but I'll be taking a bit of a contrarian approach on a few of these.

Moneyline: FlyQuest -161 (2 units)

FlyQuest actually looked quite good against Liquid for the first 20 minutes of yesterdays game. They look to me like a Top 3 team at this point which is something that even I am a little surprised about and I was higher on that team than at least some people were. I don't necessarily think this will last but they look good and confident right now. Echo Fox look quite the opposite. Echo Fox are kind of just playing and hoping their individual players are enough to win. They never seem to have a plan which is a bummer becuase I think with even a little bit of bigger picture strategic thinking this team could be a force but they just aren't right now. If you think they can just brute force win this game then don't tail this bet but I'm taking FlyQuest for a couple units here. Simply put they look good and EF look bad.

Moneyline: Cloud 9 -200 (1.5 units)

This is a tad aggressive. I'm not trying to overreact to Cloud 9's win yesterday because I think it was a pretty standard "we outscale" type of situation which isn't always impressive especially in best of one. This is more of a bet on how off Clutch look. In their defense they've faced 100T and Liquid but honestly 100T looked pretty bad in their win over Clutch yesterday. I'll take a second to digress into the Jayce/Zilean thing from yesterday. Don't say "they can't draft" or "they're tilted" or anything like that. It's a real strategy that I'm confident you'll see again. It didn't work for them but it's a real thing. Back on track. Clutch and 100T both looked pretty bad yesterday and while Cloud 9 didn't really do anything outstanding they did win a slugfest game against TSM and appear to be trending in the right direction albeit very slowly.

Like I said this is aggressive but Clutch, as much as I like them, have looked pretty bad. I like Cloud 9 for 1.5 units.

Prop: TL/OpTic UNDER 21.5 total kills @ -119 (0.5 units)

I don't want to overreact to the roster jumble that's going on with OpTic right now. There could be any number of reasons for it but the only thing that really matters is that OpTic honestly haven't looked particularly good in any of their iterations so far. Team Liquid are head and shoulders ahead of the other teams in NA. FlyQuest gave them a "run for their money" yesterday and they were still basically in full control of that game. TL look like G2. they're playing a different game than the rest of the region right now. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth here. If your book offers the total game time under here I actually love the under 33 or 34. Liquid have a long average game time but they've also faced a "tough" schedule with some of the teams that have had a strong starts. This feels like it's going to be a clean stomping to me.

Moneyline: Golden Guardians +225 (strong lean)

I briefly wanted to mention this one because I think this line value is way out of whack. I don't feel confident enough in Golden Guardians to win this yet and I don't want to overreact to their win yesterday because OpTic look pretty bad at the moment but this line feels way off. TSM likely win this game but if you're a "value" bettor this is a good spot to fire especially in a best of one with a team coming off a loss yesterday and the other off their first win and feeling good. This is a great spot for Golden Guardians and the value is right. I'm abstaining because I still think TSM win this game but I might change my mind if the value goes any higher on this.

Parlay (3): FlyQuest ML + C9 ML + TL ML @ +192 (0.25 units)

Parlay (3): 100T ML + C9 ML + TL ML @ +199 (0.25 units)