Saturday, February 8, 2020

February 9th: LCK, LCS

February 8th Recap

LCK: 1 - 3 (-0.93 units)
LEC: 1 - 2 (-1.46 units)
VCS: 0 - 1 (-0.25 units)
LCS: 1 - 1 (+0.2 units)
Parlays: 0 - 0 (0 units)
NET: 3 - 7 (-2.44 units)

Soraka single handedly took two victories from us. Back to back rough days is never good. I shifted off of underdogs too soon it seems as Liquid fell along with EG to CLG and Rogue to MAD Lions. A few things to take away from today. MAD once again get gifted a win by Rogue's "not expecting the Soraka" after they literally just lost to it the day before and it being a meta pick, along with a level one cheese they fell for and, the cherry on top, the WAY TOO FAR AWAY TELEPORT FLANK... jeez what a punt in so many ways. Infuriating. I'm still not entirely buying all of these middle of the table teams like MAD and Misfits. They're certainly good just not as good as I think public perception. The LCK looked like two absolute blowouts but DAMWON definitely should have lost game one and pulled a really slick all-in backdoor play to steal it. I'll admit Griffin showed some team fighting capability from way down in game two to almost steal a few fights but Gen.G were just too far ahead based on early plays. 

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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

LCK Spring 2020 - Opening Week
Week 1 - Day 5

DragonX -153 (-1.5 @ +208)
Sandbox +113 (+1.5 @ -218)

We can't really take too much from Sandbox's 52 minute 2-0 over APK. Sandbox look very similar to how they looked last season, rock solid and with a dominant top trio. DragonX are a different animal. With Doran serving a one match suspension, Cassiopeia one-trick Quad came in to play mid lane and Chovy moved to top. DragonX were able to take a 2-1 victory over a respectable KT Rolster team. I do think Sandbox are a step up from KT Rolster in overall quality but I also think it says something that DragonX, through a number of errors, were able to play their way out of a paper bag in a manner of speaking. 

At full strength I'd imagine that this number is roughly correct so I don't think we're really getting any sort of value here. Even though they were facing a bad opponent, Sandbox looked sharp, confident, and knew to push their advantages aggressively. Sandbox split their season series against Griffin in LCK Summer 2019 1-1 in matches and 3-3 in games so they've shown the ability to succeed against cvMax coached teams and the solo lanes of Chovy and Doran. Part of me wants to the dog here but another part of me is tremendously impressed at the ability to come back from down a game with a sub and an offrole against a real team. I like DragonX a lot so maybe this is some bias but I'm going to lay to win half a unit here. This is a bit of a gut call on a readjustment period and on DragonX being one of the better teams in the league. Sandbox just came off of a really easy win, DragonX just battled through adversity. Sandbox might be a bit caught off guard in their first real game. Low risk but taking DragonX.

Moneyline: DragonX -145 (0.725 units)(5Dimes)


Hanwha Life eSports +179 (+1.5 @ -155)
Afreeca Freecs -253 (-1.5 @ +149)

Afreeca slugged one out with SS (formerly Ssol) playing ADC against Griffin in a 51 minute game one that they eventually took down before bringing in Mystic in another close game two before a completely savage outplay by Fly and Mystic that eventually turned the game. After seeing Griffin get demolished by Gen.G this morning it'd be easy to say "Oh well Afreeca had trouble against that bad team" but I do think Gen.G are excellent and even good teams might struggle against them so I'm not going to put a lot of weight on that match.

Hanwha surprised a lot of people with their willingness to draft outside the box and catch people off guard. I tend to like teams like this to upset until all their tricks have been figured out. I'm glad they aren't just accepting mediocrity and are taking it to people but I also know that these types of things tend to be fleeting. With that in mind shouldn't we stay out of the way here? 

Hanwha Life benefitted greatly in T1's terrible drafting so far this season. In my opinion, T1 have a poor grasp on what is important in League of Legends currently and even besides having priorities straight, haven't exactly drafted cohesively anyway. A "cheese" team or "like G2" team that Hanwha are trying to be is going to shock stagnant drafts. It's impressive that T1 wasn't able to play out of the match this morning like they did against DAMWON but you saw poor execution (see the dive in game one), drafting that left Roach out to dry (particularly in game one), and just a genuine shock at what they were seeing from Hanwha. When games went "according to plan" Hanwha looked rather toothless. 

I like Hanwha's approach and they're going to be a real sweat to bet against if they're willing to push the envelope but I think Afreeca have a much stronger grasp on the game right now than T1 do. I also think they're a different type of beast to battle. Kiin presents a uniquely challenging matchup that has to be accounted for and his depth and breadth of knowledge his supreme application of it makes him a lot less vulnerable to cheesy counterpicks or strategies than a lot of players. Afreeca should roll this. I think a lot of people are going to be on Hanwha after seeing that first series but I think it will end up like game two more often than not especially if teams are ready for some wild stuff and not completely caught off guard by it.

Moneyline: Afreeca -230 (2.3 units)(5Dimes)

Spread: Afreeca -1.5 @ +149 (0.5 units)


LCS (North America)
Week 3 - Day 

100 Thieves -193 vs Immortals +135
Team Solo Mid -422 vs Golden Guardians +271
Cloud 9 -260 vs Dignitas +172
Evil Geniuses +108 vs FlyQuest -154

Immortals interestingly are the only team in the four major regions to defeat Soraka (who moved to 6-1 yesterday) but they did it against a Golden Guardians team that, unfortunately, looks like it could challenge for the worst team in the LCS. Golden Guardians also didn't draft any wave clear so once they got behind it was over. Immortals other win was against a sickened (literally) TSM in week one. Immortals are a tough team to evaluate. I like how proactive they ocassionally do some really weird mistakes. They were in full control against FlyQuest and V1per's Riven before a weird punted fight at the second herald gave FlyQuest enough gold to eventually win off of it. 

Then we have 100 Thieves who had had sloppy wins against two of the worst looking teams so far in CLG and Golden Guardians and decisively lost to both Evil Geniuses and Cloud 9 before pulling an upset against Team Liquid yesterday. 100 Thieves looked great yesterday I'll admit. Ssumday went absolutely ballistic on Aatrox. So do we think this was 100 Thieves turning a corner, Liquid losing more than 100T winning, or a symptome of something else? 

I actually like Immortals in this spot. I have these two teams rated roughly equally so far. This line is heavily biased toward 100 Thieves win yesterday but let's not forget this team has two victories that could have gone the other way against poor Golden Guardians and CLG teams. They also nearly punted a huge lead against Liquid yesterday. People are overrating this team based on yesterday. They aren't that good and shouldn't be favored by this much over anybody. Give me the dogs. 

Moneyline: Immortals +135 (1 unit)

This line is unfortunately out of range. If you can find kill spreads that are -7.5 or better I'd take a shot on that but other than that this is too high a price for me to pay on a best of one.

TSM/GG: No wager

I kind of want to lay the big number with Cloud 9 here. They look like the best team in North America. Other professionals are saying they're one of the best teams they've ever faced already. I'm sort of kicking myself for not believing a change of scenery and upgraded bottom lane wouldn't be a huge difference maker for a well-coached team like Cloud 9 in the futures markets but c'est la vie. I'm actually going to lay this to win half a unit and then include it in a parlay that I'll discuss later so that I don't have too much exposure.

Moneyline: Cloud 9 -250 (1.25 units)(5Dimes)

I like what FlyQuest have been doing this season. They're letting their superstar top laner be a superstar and that surprisingly simple formula is one that sometimes goes ignored by other rosters. That said, I think this is a bit of an overreaction to Evil Geniuses loss to CLG yesterday. EG aren't going to lose to Soraka again. They'll either ban it, pick it themselves, or have a plan for it. This is my opinion, obviously, but I think EG are better than this record and while I've got a lot of respect for what FlyQuest are doing I think these two teams are relatively even. Both are willing to draft outside the box, both have made some game ending errors, but both also have the right idea of how to play the game right now which makes me think they're both a little underrated. 

I'm taking the dog here because I think these two teams are fairly even and because I found a much better number than I expected to on it over at 5Dimes.

Moneyline: Evil Geniuses +130 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)


Other Regions:

none for now



Parlay (2): TSM ML + Cloud9 ML @ -120 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)

You can get TSM -350 at 5Dimes vs the -422 at Nitrogen but I like a parlay of the two heavy favorites here as a way to get at least some exposure on some value with TSM and additional exposure on C9.

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