February 21st Recap:
LCK: 2 - 3 (-0.5 units)
LEC: 0 - 5 (-3.24 units)
TOTAL: 2 - 8 (-3.74 units)
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LCK (Korea)
Week 3 - Day 4
Griffin +103 (+1.5 @ -242)
vs
Hanwha Life eSports -139 (-1.5 @ +230)
I don't agree with this line at all. This line is the way it is probably because Hanwha "have better quality wins" but to me they also have much worse losses to me. This number is inflated by the T1 win. Long story short, this should probably be even money or even Griffin favored based on pre-season rankings. Griffin obviously aren't the same team anymore but they've been fine. They're still a much more talented team than Hanwha. Hanwha threw a few curveballs in their first few matches but have been largely unimpressive since then. Even in their win over Sandbox they were facing mixed lineups.
I'm still not putting a lot of weight on statistics and metrics since it's so early in the season and we have a small sample size but Griffin have actually been a stronger team statistically except in team damage per minute which is going to be lower based on the compositions they've played. Griffin have significantly better vision control (almost +8% wards cleared advantage), smaller gold differential at 15, and others. Simply put, Griffin are the better team and I have them as slight favorites in this matchup. Hanwha aren't a bad team at all but they're being tremendously overrated here and we're going to try to take advantage of that.
Moneyline: Griffin +103 (1.5 units)
Spread: Griffin -1.5 maps @ +269 (0.5 units)
ADDITIONAL WAGERS:
Moneyline: Griffin +115 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
Spread: Griffin -1.5 maps @ +300 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
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T1 -1887 (-1.5 @ -231)
vs
APK Prince +732 (+1.5 @ +221)
This more or less boils down to whether or not you think APK take a game or not but I'll remind people that there is a reasonable chance that T1 play some substitutes in this game. T1 have also showed a propensity to have poor drafts so far this season although it looks like they're steadily improving in that aspect. I actually think T1 could still 2-0 with multiple subs playing. We're going to take a shot on the 2-0. T1 already had their wake up call moment against Hanwha plus they've already played their way out of a few terrible drafts and won anyway. It should mean something that this team has basically handicapped themselves and are still with the top of the table.
Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ -231 (2.31 units)
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Griffin +103 (+1.5 @ -242)
vs
Hanwha Life eSports -139 (-1.5 @ +230)
I don't agree with this line at all. This line is the way it is probably because Hanwha "have better quality wins" but to me they also have much worse losses to me. This number is inflated by the T1 win. Long story short, this should probably be even money or even Griffin favored based on pre-season rankings. Griffin obviously aren't the same team anymore but they've been fine. They're still a much more talented team than Hanwha. Hanwha threw a few curveballs in their first few matches but have been largely unimpressive since then. Even in their win over Sandbox they were facing mixed lineups.
I'm still not putting a lot of weight on statistics and metrics since it's so early in the season and we have a small sample size but Griffin have actually been a stronger team statistically except in team damage per minute which is going to be lower based on the compositions they've played. Griffin have significantly better vision control (almost +8% wards cleared advantage), smaller gold differential at 15, and others. Simply put, Griffin are the better team and I have them as slight favorites in this matchup. Hanwha aren't a bad team at all but they're being tremendously overrated here and we're going to try to take advantage of that.
Moneyline: Griffin +103 (1.5 units)
Spread: Griffin -1.5 maps @ +269 (0.5 units)
ADDITIONAL WAGERS:
Moneyline: Griffin +115 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
Spread: Griffin -1.5 maps @ +300 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
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T1 -1887 (-1.5 @ -231)
vs
APK Prince +732 (+1.5 @ +221)
This more or less boils down to whether or not you think APK take a game or not but I'll remind people that there is a reasonable chance that T1 play some substitutes in this game. T1 have also showed a propensity to have poor drafts so far this season although it looks like they're steadily improving in that aspect. I actually think T1 could still 2-0 with multiple subs playing. We're going to take a shot on the 2-0. T1 already had their wake up call moment against Hanwha plus they've already played their way out of a few terrible drafts and won anyway. It should mean something that this team has basically handicapped themselves and are still with the top of the table.
Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ -231 (2.31 units)
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LEC (Europe)
Week 5 - Day 2
Schalke +147 vs Excel -207
Rogue -113 vs Misfits -128
Vitality +118 vs SK Gaming -167
Fnatic -128 vs Origen -113
G2 eSports -369 vs MAD Lions +246
Excel tried the Vayne mid vs Ornn but the Karthus just made fights way too difficult for her to navigate. I'm glad to see G2 recognize Karthus is generally stronger than Elise in this spot especially if you've already got scaling. Schalke was able to take advantage of facing Vitality and even after giving them Zoe and Ornn in the draft. Vitality are approaching that untouchable territory but we might take one more shot on them today against SK before calling it quits. I wasn't really impressed with Schalke yesterday as I was just how poorly Vitality played so I don't want to jump to any kind of "Schalke is better" talk yet. The Nitrogen number is way too big but you can get -160 on Excel at 5Dimes so we're going to take advantage of that.
Moneyline: Excel -160 (2.4 units)(5Dimes)
Misfits were another team yesterday that I was less impressed by them than I was their opponents poor play. I'll give Febiven a ton of credit, he's playing like a man with nothing to lose right now once he gets a lead which has been happening almost every game. I thought Rogue played pretty well against Fnatic but got caught off guard a bit by the Zac top into Finn's Kled. I like Syndra on this patch but I did find it more or less incorrect to not take Ornn with the blue side first pick with the bans that were laid out in the first round of this draft. It's actually a bit concerning. Rogue probably win this game but with no plus money option I'm just going to pass the game.
Misfits/Rogue: no wager
I'm going to take one more chance on Vitality here only because I found a great number and it's against the other bottom team in SK but this might be my last shot barring a ridiculous market for them later in the season or roster switch ups. Skeanz was able to get a good start for them but Saken played an atrocious Zoe game. It's pretty hard to lose with Zoe or Ornn right now and a lead and Vitality managed to do just that. I think SK are just a tad better but shouldn't be favored by this much. I found a nice +135 on Vitality over at 5Dimes and we'll be going with that.
Moneyline: Vitality +135 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
Again, Fnatic and Origen I was hoping to get plus money on either side but I'm not so I'll just pass this game. Historically Origen have struggled against Fnatic's outside the box approach to things as they do with any team that doesn't play within typical structure but I feel this Origen team is better than previous iterations and Fnatic is a drop worse. Wouldn't be surprised with either result here but I'm passing.
Fnatic/Origen: no wager
I'm not taking this dog or lion rather against G2.
MAD/G2: no wager
Schalke +147 vs Excel -207
Rogue -113 vs Misfits -128
Vitality +118 vs SK Gaming -167
Fnatic -128 vs Origen -113
G2 eSports -369 vs MAD Lions +246
Excel tried the Vayne mid vs Ornn but the Karthus just made fights way too difficult for her to navigate. I'm glad to see G2 recognize Karthus is generally stronger than Elise in this spot especially if you've already got scaling. Schalke was able to take advantage of facing Vitality and even after giving them Zoe and Ornn in the draft. Vitality are approaching that untouchable territory but we might take one more shot on them today against SK before calling it quits. I wasn't really impressed with Schalke yesterday as I was just how poorly Vitality played so I don't want to jump to any kind of "Schalke is better" talk yet. The Nitrogen number is way too big but you can get -160 on Excel at 5Dimes so we're going to take advantage of that.
Moneyline: Excel -160 (2.4 units)(5Dimes)
Misfits were another team yesterday that I was less impressed by them than I was their opponents poor play. I'll give Febiven a ton of credit, he's playing like a man with nothing to lose right now once he gets a lead which has been happening almost every game. I thought Rogue played pretty well against Fnatic but got caught off guard a bit by the Zac top into Finn's Kled. I like Syndra on this patch but I did find it more or less incorrect to not take Ornn with the blue side first pick with the bans that were laid out in the first round of this draft. It's actually a bit concerning. Rogue probably win this game but with no plus money option I'm just going to pass the game.
Misfits/Rogue: no wager
I'm going to take one more chance on Vitality here only because I found a great number and it's against the other bottom team in SK but this might be my last shot barring a ridiculous market for them later in the season or roster switch ups. Skeanz was able to get a good start for them but Saken played an atrocious Zoe game. It's pretty hard to lose with Zoe or Ornn right now and a lead and Vitality managed to do just that. I think SK are just a tad better but shouldn't be favored by this much. I found a nice +135 on Vitality over at 5Dimes and we'll be going with that.
Moneyline: Vitality +135 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
Again, Fnatic and Origen I was hoping to get plus money on either side but I'm not so I'll just pass this game. Historically Origen have struggled against Fnatic's outside the box approach to things as they do with any team that doesn't play within typical structure but I feel this Origen team is better than previous iterations and Fnatic is a drop worse. Wouldn't be surprised with either result here but I'm passing.
Fnatic/Origen: no wager
I'm not taking this dog or lion rather against G2.
MAD/G2: no wager
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LCS (North America)
Week 5 - Day 1
TSM -207 vs 100 Thieves +147
Cloud 9 -1000 vs CLG +500
FlyQuest -181 vs Golden Guardians +123
Dignitas -165 vs Immortals +135
There are two games I like on this slate. One is an attack on a number and a situational selection which is Golden Guardians. I like what FlyQuest is doing but I do think they're been severely overrated here. Closer has been an absolute stud for GGs and I think the further along on a patch we go the fewer edges the good teams can continue to have because there won't be the same drafting errors by the inferior teams. FlyQuest have had a large edge from their drafting alone more than their play. They shouldn't be favored by this much even though I like what they're doing.
Moneyline: Golden Guardians +155 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
Immortals are another team that I think has benefitted a bit from poor drafting choices by their opponents but Xmithie and friends have actually been playing quite well also. He still looks like the best jungler in the league and while Broxah might eventually take that throne once he's settled in, or Blaber makes a longer form case, Xmithie will remain the intelligent leader he's always been. I don't know what business Dignitas have laying -165 against anybody. Immortals might end up crashing back down to earth but Dig shouldn't be favored heavily against anybody except maybe CLG right now.
Moneyline: Immortals +135 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
TSM -207 vs 100 Thieves +147
Cloud 9 -1000 vs CLG +500
FlyQuest -181 vs Golden Guardians +123
Dignitas -165 vs Immortals +135
There are two games I like on this slate. One is an attack on a number and a situational selection which is Golden Guardians. I like what FlyQuest is doing but I do think they're been severely overrated here. Closer has been an absolute stud for GGs and I think the further along on a patch we go the fewer edges the good teams can continue to have because there won't be the same drafting errors by the inferior teams. FlyQuest have had a large edge from their drafting alone more than their play. They shouldn't be favored by this much even though I like what they're doing.
Moneyline: Golden Guardians +155 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
Immortals are another team that I think has benefitted a bit from poor drafting choices by their opponents but Xmithie and friends have actually been playing quite well also. He still looks like the best jungler in the league and while Broxah might eventually take that throne once he's settled in, or Blaber makes a longer form case, Xmithie will remain the intelligent leader he's always been. I don't know what business Dignitas have laying -165 against anybody. Immortals might end up crashing back down to earth but Dig shouldn't be favored heavily against anybody except maybe CLG right now.
Moneyline: Immortals +135 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
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Parlays:
none for now
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